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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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29 minutes ago, Weatherzim said:

Buddy where are you from

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

Salem VA which presides right next to Roanoke as biggest city. Southwestern virginia banked up against the apps. 

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The geographic spread in snowfall went way down on the GEFS. But where it had snow, in the Mtns, the mean went up a bit. Using Asheville, as an example in the bullseye area, had 10 out of 20 members with snow plus the control. 7 members were over 2 inches and the highest member was 8 inches. 

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24 minutes ago, IWC said:

YOU GOTTA BELIEVE!!!!!

Santa is make believe. 

But doesn't make it real.

 

If you want snow you better hope the NS energy doesn't get hung up over MN, WI, MI.

Cause a cold rain shall happen. 

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13 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Who's ready for an 0z GFS shellacking?! 

I'm ready for some sort of trend with all the models, the GFS gave me whiplash.

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3 minutes ago, JoshM said:

I'm ready for some sort of trend with all the models, the GFS gave me whiplash.

I literally left the game over it. Time to reinvest in this being something more than a nuisance. 

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25 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Who's ready for an 0z GFS shellacking?! 

You better hope the NS energy doesn't get hung up.

Cause a cold rain.

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Looks like 0z nam and 18z GFS are a little different wrt southern energy. Nam is slower with the energy but nam also weaker with n/s s/w over the plains/northern us. Could still work if the nam went out in time with n/s maybe being able to catch a slower ejecting southern us s/w. Both highs looks good in eastern canada around 1042. Bored waiting for the GFS so figured I'd nitpick 

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40 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I literally left the game over it. Time to reinvest in this being something more than a nuisance. 

I would't get too invested.  This one is so marginal it's in a completely different book.

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8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Looks like 0z nam and 18z GFS are a little different wrt southern energy. Nam is slower with the energy but nam also weaker with n/s s/w over the plains/northern us. Could still work if the nam went out in time with n/s maybe being able to catch a slower ejecting southern us s/w. Both highs looks good in eastern canada around 1042. Bored waiting for the GFS so figured I'd nitpick 

The high is a little bit further north on the NAM, and out to 84 it's marginally warmer than the GFS at the same time. Something to keep an eye on.

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Gfs looks like it's taking a step back at 0z. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. Too positively tilted. Northern stream not as robust. I'm at 84 hrs. 

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I love how this bowling ball of a vort just completely vanishes into thin air on the 0z GFS that was in the Ohio valley. Literally is a completely different outcome almost every run with what it feels like doing with the northern stream. 

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3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Way south and OTS :mellow:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_23.png

Yea northern stream just took a big steaming dump to screw us. Icon a miss as well.

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Just now, BIG FROSTY said:

Way south and OTS :mellow:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_23.png

The GFS is in suppression mode. It always does this 3-5 days out. In this case however if it trends back NW I’m not optimistic it will be anything wintry. 

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5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea northern stream just took a big steaming dump to screw us. Icon a miss as well.

The ICON at least has precipitation over NC/SC for a period of time. Lol

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