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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yay for N.C. snow! They never get any!

watch the NW trend, DC jackpots 

Lol. Complete clown that will never happen. Still, the models really pick up on that lee side snow shield. Draw a line from NO to MYB and you can really see the effect of the apps on our region. Cold has to be there first or forget it. I 40 looks nice though.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
335 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wed: Net troughing will continue across the East
through the end of the period Tuesday night. The feature of
interest remains another strong Arctic front, which is depicted as
likely arriving in our area Monday night. The already nearly zonal
flow preceding the front and attendant shortwave, coupled with
the position of the high, means little chance for good moisture
return ahead of the front. Thus it is not expected to bring much
in the way of precipitation; the ECMWF and GDPS, combined with
all the GEFS members, support another "clean"/"straightforward"
fropa. The GFS has become an outlier, depicting a deeper and slower
upper trough behind the front, and development of a coastal wave
along it. This would point to a winter storm of some degree in the
middle of next week. The GDPS does lag the ECMWF a bit, however,
which warrants a slow decline in PoPs--but precip type trends are
kept in line with the non-GFS solutions. Temps Tue and Tue night
generally will be even colder than those Saturday.


.

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7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yay for N.C. snow! They never get any!

watch the NW trend, DC jackpots lw

7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yay for N.C. snow! They never get any!

watch the NW trend, DC jackpots 

Except when we received 15 inches in an early December storm last year. Apologetic my Sarcasm Detector failed.

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It is hard to believe that we will get as cold as the models are hinting at next week.  Lows below 20?  That would be a pretty amazing feat for mid-November.  I bet we'll see some moderation in that forecast over the next few days.

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Great to see everyone in here still. Been awhile for me posting but the next couple days should be interesting with some of the ensembles and the first true test of the new GFS. 

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Early November and we are acting like rookies instead of the seasoned veterans we are.  C'mon team, don't let Lucy yank that ball away again.  Walk away with your heads held high.  Don't be Charlie Brown and look over your shoulder to see her little smiley GFS loving self sitting there holding the ball.  It's November for Pete's sake....now act like it!!

So how far is that field goal Charlie Brown? :lol:

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What's everybody's take. You rather have a front loaded winter and take your chances on the back end or have a crappy warm pattern front end and loaded back end? For me I'd rather take front and roll the dice on back end. 

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19 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

What's everybody's take. You rather have a front loaded winter and take your chances on the back end or have a crappy warm pattern front end and loaded back end? For me I'd rather take front and roll the dice on back end. 

I'll take snow any way we can get it. November or April. December is my favorite month for winter weather due to the winter solstice and lowest sun angle allowing accumulations to last.

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

It is hard to believe that we will get as cold as the models are hinting at next week.  Lows below 20?  That would be a pretty amazing feat for mid-November.  I bet we'll see some moderation in that forecast over the next few days.

I think there will be some moderation seen on the model runs, but I believe this cold shot is the real thing. Cold and dry.....yay :lol: 

BTW......don’t drink whatever the gfs has been gifting to winter weenies everywhere. It will only break your heart :P :ph34r: 

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1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

Early November and we are acting like rookies instead of the seasoned veterans we are.  C'mon team, don't let Lucy yank that ball away again.  Walk away with your heads held high.  Don't be Charlie Brown and look over your shoulder to see her little smiley GFS loving self sitting there holding the ball.  It's November for Pete's sake....now act like it!!

So how far is that field goal Charlie Brown? :lol:

What are we?  A bunch of Johnny Come Late-lies??

 

 

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I’m not the smartest peanut in the turd, but how would any moisture be possible with that hp and temps?   Might be cold but I don’t see anything in the form of frozen precip.

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1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

What's everybody's take. You rather have a front loaded winter and take your chances on the back end or have a crappy warm pattern front end and loaded back end? For me I'd rather take front and roll the dice on back end. 

The sun angle is better this time of year.  Haha.

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1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

The sun angle is better this time of year.  Haha.

And the best chance we have for cold!

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I’m not the smartest peanut in the turd, but how would any moisture be possible with that hp and temps?   Might be cold but I don’t see anything in the form of frozen precip.

Big, strong high pressures are usually coupled with strong upper features and disturbances. Strong high pressures are only possible with a ton of sinking air throughout the atmosphere... many different processes (jet exit/entrance regions, vorticity, warm air/cold air advection) work together to create this monster highs. On the flip side, with such strong jets/troughs creating the high on one side, the other side (eastern side) will feature rising air and different types of advection to provide moisture in the region.
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6 hours ago, Buddy1987 said:

What's everybody's take. You rather have a front loaded winter and take your chances on the back end or have a crappy warm pattern front end and loaded back end? For me I'd rather take front and roll the dice on back end. 

100% agree.  Take it and run.  All day long!

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