Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The FV3 map shows frozen precip in NE TN/ SW VA and in other areas well outside of that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Looking at the text output for the 00z FV3 at KTRI. It has .42 falling as snow with ratios about 7:1. Then another .67 with ratios increasing to around 10:1 as it moves out. That brings the total of 9.7 inches. Based on soundings, those ratios might be slightly too high but probably not too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 They people who get lucky enough to get snow to fall will see something you rarely ever see if these 4 and 5:1 ratios verify, snowflakes will be the size of the palm of your hand or larger. I've seen that maybe two times in my life. Dynamic cooling event in February 1998 when I got 17 inches of wet wet snow and one day in late April it started snowing at around 40 degrees and flakes as large as my hand were hitting the ground. It snowed 2 inches in about 35 minutes then melted off about 2 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Ratio'd I get 15 inches on the FV3. 10 inches of snow depth on the ground at hour 90. I've had 2 13 inch events since 2010. Not went over 13 since the 1990s where I had 3 over 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Math/Met said: Looking at the text output for the 00z FV3 at KTRI. It has .42 falling as snow with ratios about 7:1. Then another .67 with ratios increasing to around 10:1 as it moves out. That brings the total of 9.7 inches. Based on soundings, those ratios might be slightly too high but probably not too far off. The ratio'd map at Pivotal has Tri at 9 inches. So it seems to work pretty well based on your math, which I trust more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 And here we go...0z Euro nightshift crew. Initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: The ratio'd map at Pivotal has Tri at 9 inches. So it seems to work pretty well based on your math, which I trust more. I’m using F5wx text output, but it looks reasonable compared to soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I am happy with my v3 snow totals, but some of the totals in the piedmont would once in a century... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Out to 12, and the Euro looks pretty steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Bango said: I am happy with my v3 snow totals, but some of the totals in the piedmont would once in a century... They actually get big 15-20+ inch events more than you'd think. A large part of their snow average is usually built on one big storm every couple of years. We tend to comparatively nickel and dime our way to our averages. I average around 20 inches a year but if I can manage more than 10 inches from any event I will almost always end up above normal for that year because I get a lot of small flow snows like the 2 incher the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Out to 24 and the Euro looks a tad flatter, but similar to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Coming into the final few runs of globals that matter over the next 12 hours or so, the ENS are probably beyond their useful point now too. This should be firmly within range of the NAM/RGEM tomorrow. The Euro is high res enough to also be among the useful models for the next 24 hours too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Through 48 the Euro is the same basically as the 0z from last night at 850 and with surface features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 72 the low is stronger and slightly colder than 0z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Euro backed down by the look of things. 2-6 inches. The northern fringe really got eat up. SEKY and areas of SWVA a county or two further north than Tri are down in the 2-3 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Ratio'd the following totals through 84. Tri 5-6 inches. Knoxville 1-2 inches. Crossville 1-2 inches. Northern Plateau 3-4 inches SE KY 1-3 inches. SWVA 2-4 inches Not much to speak of outside that. Not seen if anything continues beyond 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The Euro was just dry that run. Huge cut in QPF. My area gets .5-.75 qpf. Books through and is gone. Not my favorite run but once again continues the 0z trend of being worse than the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Current model results. GFS/UKIE mostly bad for us all. Canadian and Euro medium events. FV3/NAM big hitters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Generally 4-6 inches in NE TN based on the Euro text data. Higher totals as you get closer to the mountains. The area near the mountains where we were concerned about having downslope issues may end up being the favored spot based on that Euro run. But as John said, that run had much less precip over northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Watching computers attempt to hone in on what truly occurs has been a headache. You can disregard the NAM in the long range and argue the bias of the FV3 (still experimental) is likely to be revealed. The CMC is not seen as the most reliable model by a long shot. The GFS and UKIE suddenly seem a lot more sensible relative to the other guidance now. The ECMWF model regarded as the best global model has forecasted a disappointment for the amount of moisture available, the duration of the event, and latitude at which the precipitation shield passes. The past few days have been a roller coaster ride of lows and highs. Today at 12z I thought the euro had finally settled on a general idea of what we would have after it rebounded north from another disappointing run last night. I was wrong. The idea of being able to foresee the weather more than a few days out is greatly challenged especially when it comes to winter weather. Suddenly the idea of this winter storm dropping 10 in. of snow in far southwestern Virginia seems foolish. I thought that if things turned away from my favor it would be a gradual action over the course of a couple of runs rather than all at once. If there was a word I could use to describe my demeanor most accurately it would be deflated. Ever since possibly 2015 I do not believe I have seen more than 10 inches of snow on the ground. It's all a mirage. I get to see regions with much more hostile climates enjoy winter storms while I sit in the doldrums. How hard can it be over the course of over 1000 days to have something close to a foot of snow on the ground. The Tennessee Valley just can't seem to get a break. For clarification 10 inches was on the higher end of my expectations but the euro went below 6 inches for that matter. If 0z is reaffirmed by 6z and 12z MRX may as well scrap the watch up here. To any of you who actually manage to get significant snowfall if 850s don't torch I will be happy for you. If this comes to fruition my peers whom I shared my thoughts with will dismiss them. I emphasize the likelihood of a major winter storm and 2.5 in falls. So much analyzing so much consideration over many many days and just an inch more than the random snow squall that hit a few days ago occurs... In some manner I would feel better if it was raining overhead rather than with little to nothing occurring at all at least then I could say "If it had just been 2 degrees colder I'd have pinned this down." FOR JUST ONCE CAN A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM VERIFY! AHH! Sigh... I'm glad I got that rant out of my system. There is no point in shaking your fist at the clouds as no matter what we do or say it'll do what it's a gonna do. Mankind's methods of foretelling how the atmosphere may behave are inherently flawed. I'll stop complaining and post more thoughtful speculation to the best of my ability. I find this hobby very satisfying and I have learned so much from all of you. All I can say is thank you for all the collective effort you all have put into our tiny sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 06 NAM holds serve pretty well, getting centrally into it's wheelhouse with this thing. Nightmare level freezing rain in parts of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The RGEM should be wintry, it has a 1038 high in Illinois and an 1038 in Central Ohio with the storm moving along the Gulf into Northern Florida. Surface temps are below freezing from Cumberland Gap to Dyersburg. Freezing rain is falling in those areas. It just doesn't go far enough out yet to see what happens after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM 3K is a nice snow event and scary ice event from Arkansas to NE Tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Looks like the GFS is going to slip by and not even send rain north of 40. Hilarious that it shows a Gulf system that warm noses the 850s into Ohio and rockets temps to near 50 on Sunday now, not producing a bigger precipitation shield. This thing throws up 3.5 inches of precip into Arkansas and it just dies out after. The next 2 runs of models will tell us if the GFS is leading the way or if it's completely insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: Looks like the GFS is going to slip by and not even send rain north of 40. Hilarious that it shows a Gulf system that warm noses the 850s into Ohio and rockets temps to near 50 on Sunday now, not producing a bigger precipitation shield. This thing throws up 3.5 inches of precip into Arkansas and it just dies out after. The next 2 runs of models will tell us if the GFS is leading the way or if it's completely insane. What's shutting the pwats down on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: What's shutting the pwats down on it? As crazy as it is, it looks like the winds never turn S or SW at either 700 or 850 on there. On the NAM they are screaming out of the South/Southwest and that pumps in the moisture. The GFS went from having the highest dew points to the lowest. They never get out of the 20s for anywhere north of 40 during the whole time the low is passing by. Which would be great if the moisture was being transported north like you'd expect from a Gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 WPC model preferences were a general blend from 00z with less weight to the NAM because it said the NAM was actually too warm at 850 in their opinion. For the 100th time, mentioned that the GFS was progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS has to be off its rocker, right? We will find out soon enough... off topic- John do you even sleep? Lmao! Thanks for keeping us abreast of the situation! Really appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Reb said: GFS has to be off its rocker, right? We will find out soon enough... off topic- John do you even sleep? Lmao! Thanks for keeping us abreast of the situation! Really appreciate it. Not during the winter! I actually sleep around 3-4 hours a day. I never seem to need more. As for the GFS. Not sure. Maybe storms in the Gulf are effecting the moisture transport. It often under performs on precip shields, well known bias of the model and all the models are trending south with the precip. This is actually similar to my worst snow bust memory back in the 1980s when we were forecast to get a foot of snow one Sunday night from a miller A, woke up the next morning expecting no school, not a flake of snow or drop of rain had fallen. Winter Storm warnings busted all across East Tennessee. Precip didn't make it over the Tennessee line. I don't remember any specifics that caused it, but I imagine it could have been storms robbing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 FV3 still a big hitter almost statewide but the northern edge of the precip is further south and totals shrank overall through 78 but it's still snowing in Eastern areas. Skipped 84 so not sure if it was still snowing then or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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