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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Just now, SENC said:

2M temps & Precip panels(next frame)

 

same17.JPG

panel7temps.JPG

Just something that would make it so we don't have to scroll through a bunch of images, COD allows a GIF to be made so you can post the whole run in one post.

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Just now, Disc said:

Just something that would make it so we don't have to scroll through a bunch of images, COD allows a GIF to be made so you can post the whole run in one post.

ok I'll give it a shot..

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4 minutes ago, Disc said:

Just something that would make it so we don't have to scroll through a bunch of images, COD allows a GIF to be made so you can post the whole run in one post.

ok like this? trying to figure out the timing part  

17Z-20181208_HRRRSE_prec_ptype-1-8-10-100.gif

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While the GFS likes central NC. The EURO had a strong shift north. Im guessing the EuroENS will follow the op run.

NAM did so well last winter, now that we see Euro adjusting towards NAM it worries me that it is simply getting a better track on the L and the warm air aloft that comes with it.

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Who will be the first to say you can’t trust the Euro at this range and instead rely on the HRRR and other short range non-warming-showing models?

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2 minutes ago, blueheronNC said:

12z Euro was a devastating run for RDU.  Almost no snow.

Warm nose really entered the equation for just about everyone along and south of I-40 in NC. Even mountain snowfall numbers get slashed due to mixing. 

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3 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

While the GFS likes central NC. The EURO had a strong shift north. Im guessing the EuroENS will follow the op run.

NAM did so well last winter, now that we see Euro adjusting towards NAM it worries me that it is simply getting a better track on the L and the warm air aloft that comes with it.

Time and time again the Globals fail this close to the storm.  It’s fruitless trying to forecast with those now unless you want to prove a point that’s likely to not come to fruition...

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1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

Time and time again the Globals fail this close to the storm.  It’s fruitless trying to forecast with those now unless you want to prove a point that’s likely to not come to fruition...

You actually can do pretty well if you understand the setup and learn from past situations. Even if you simply use the snow maps and take the 48-72 hour ones and adjust the max significantly north and cut them in half, you’ll usually get pretty close.

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In Wilkesboro, about to make the final call of Blowing Rock or Sparta, I don’t want to enitely discount the RGEM and NAM for 2” of QPF with little mixing around Sparta.

 

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Yesterday, when looking at the RGEM, it had most of southern NC switching to a mix, ending with rain, then going back to snow on the back end of the low. It did however start with a good snow at first. The only place that stayed all snow was the very northern parts of NC and the NW mountains. I like the RGEM, especially the day before. When we had a lot of snow in Birmingham last year, it got it right the day before when all forecasts predicted very little based on the others. So maybe that’s where the lower snow amounts are coming from?  Most of the precip for most of the state with switch over to a sleet/freezing rain lowering the totals. 

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6 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Time and time again the Globals fail this close to the storm.  It’s fruitless trying to forecast with those now unless you want to prove a point that’s likely to not come to fruition...

From what I understand, the Hi Res Euro has 9 Km resolution. Doesn't sound like too much of a slouch to me.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

You actually can do pretty well if you understand the setup and learn from past situations. Even if you simply use the snow maps and take the 48-72 hour ones and adjust the max significantly north and cut them in half, you’ll usually get pretty close.

Agreed, not taking them face value and using lots of other thought they can be helpful.  Most don’t.  I’m probably also more biased based on climatology where I’m at since it’s so hard for any model to nail down this area. 

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I’m reducing snowfall totals based on an analysis of all new data. It seems highly likely there will be a layer of warm air aloft that makes it to us overnight. So, while surface temperatures will be in the mid 20s, it will be above freezing at 10,000 feet.  So...

Asheville: 4-8" of snow and 1-2" of sleet, no ice
Hendersonville: 3-7" of snow and 2-4" of sleet, some minor glazing possible

Now, if the warm nose fails to materialize (possible, but seems like it will), then the forecast is unchanged from yesterday:

AVL: 10-15"
HEND: 15-20"

So you see what a huge deal this layer of warm air is aloft.  I will make another update/revision this evening. 

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