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dmillz25

11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion

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Nam strongly hinting at a decent front end hit before the change over especially N&W of the fall line. 

Pretty unfavorable track/setup beyond that with the high weakening and scooting east + the track is barely offshore. It's also the Nam at 60+ hrs.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nam strongly hinting at a decent front end hit before the change over especially N&W of the fall line. 

Pretty unfavorable track/setup beyond that with the high weakening and scooting east + the track is barely offshore. It's also the Nam at 60+ hrs.

Yeah. Need to cash in on WAA before dry slot. I'm intrigued.

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18 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah. Need to cash in on WAA before dry slot. I'm intrigued.

Any and I mean any east flow and it’s curtains for snow potential on the coast. Definitly not the setup you want for mid November snow potential at sea level with mid 50 water temps. You need a CCB with a strong northerly flow to get it done. I highly highly doubt anyone less then 50 miles inland sees accumulating snow

 

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Actually think we'll have a better shot with a clipper/Miller B type setup late weekend into early next week.

Gfs showing early hints of it.

I don’t think so this is a much juicer system 

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Things trended a bit in the wrong direction overnight. We need the ULL to at least maintain it's strength.

Still potential for a solid front end dump followed by dry slot followed by snow on the backside as the ULL swings through. 

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I know it’s certainly not unprecedented to get snow in mid November but I’ve gotta day, I just can’t believe we are already tracking a potential. Assumed a backloaded winter this year.

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32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Things trended a bit in the wrong direction overnight. We need the ULL to at least maintain it's strength.

Still potential for a solid front end dump followed by dry slot followed by snow on the backside as the ULL swings through. 

Models have trended more progressive and colder

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33 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Models have trended more progressive and colder

Perhaps, but they trended towards a weaker ULL which is no good.

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12z NAM has about 3-6 hours of snow followed by 3-6 hours of freezing rain over most of Northern NJ and interior parts of SE NY Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. 

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z NAM has about 3-6 hours of snow followed by 3-6 hours of freezing rain over most of Northern NJ and interior parts of SE NY Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. 

3-6 hours of freezing rain is a recipe for a nightmare on the roads

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2 minutes ago, jrodd321 said:

Nam holds course. Nice front end thump. 

B671192C-944B-4444-BE9C-B122BFADC65D.png

Very odd because the 12z NAM snow map on Pivotalweather is showing about 1 inch of snow for northern Jersey, where this one is showing 6 to 10. Is it because this one counts sleet as snow?

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

Very odd because the 12z NAM snow map on Pivotalweather is showing about 1 inch of snow for northern Jersey, where this one is showing 6 to 10. Is it because this one counts sleet as snow?

and freezing rain

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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Very odd because the 12z NAM snow map on Pivotalweather is showing about 1 inch of snow for northern Jersey, where this one is showing 6 to 10. Is it because this one counts sleet as snow?

Sleet and freezing rain

This is close for the coast. Temps are in the lower to mid 30s 

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