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November 15 Snow/Ice Chance


showmethesnow

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That 500mb pass is really nice on the Euro.  Get that northern stream out of the way just a pinch more and if that slides another 20-50 miles farther south, would be possible to see a changeover back to frozen east of the mountains on Friday morning.  Could get some brief heavy precipitation that can drag down some colder air and get a few minutes of fatties.

A little farther south with the closed would be nice but I would also like to see it swinging through even a little quicker while the surface low is still below our latitude. Best thing about the shift we are seeing with that feature is that we may not be as reliant on CAD as we will have a fresh supply of cold over top as you alluded to.

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Big jump on the snowfall EPS means map. Would post but I believe NorthArlington101 is going to do that. Now have the 2" line south of Balt/DC with 3-4 inches in NW burbs.

yeah I updated my original post. Trying not to spam things too hard. :D

off of a rough count:

At 12z 26 members + control get the 2" mark SE of DC -- most of those well past DC, vs 0z where 6 did.

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Ji said:

we got 11 inches in 1987....its happened before lol. I like how we are trending towards better instead of worse. This is usually where we start failing

I was in HS in Challes County, for the Veteran's Day storm.  It surprised all the mets-  I think we ended up with about 13". They sent us to school and then closed pretty quickly. 

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Yes, end of the run... but 18z 3km NAM at 60 hours (06z THUR) has a 3 contour level closed h5 low in Arkansas.  18z 12km NAM at 60 hours also does as well - also located in Arkansas. 

However, the 18z 12zkm NAM is once again is quite late with its arrival of precip so that any frozen stays out on the I-81 corridor and is quickly changed to rain unless you are out in E WV

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