Jebman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 hours ago, Scraff said: Warm up the amps, tune up the guitars, the MoCo/HoCo death band is back out on tour. Not just the HoCo/MoCo Death Band. They are gonna hold a major festival in Central and Western Maryland. One gigantic death band that stays put for 40 hours, where snow rates of up to 4 inches an hour will be realized. I am thinking about a road trip, this is one outdoor festival I dont want to miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 55 minutes ago, wkd said: Memory lane: I used to listen to a radio show out of Owings Mill Maryland(think that's right). Came on at 6:30 or 7:00 in the morning and lasted about 30 min I believe. Good in depth analysis of the weather nation-wide. I was so pissed when it went off the air. There was "A.M. Weather" on public TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 31 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We will thaw in January, no doubt. Never made this call before, but we will get a SSW this year. Base state is in our favor and the pv has already done some crazy stuff and we've haf some anamolous ridge around the Pole. It's ripe for it to happen. I think that results in a decent pattern for ay leadt 10-14 days. 31 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We will thaw in January, no doubt. Never made this call before, but we will get a SSW this year. Base state is in our favor and the pv has already done some crazy stuff and we've haf some anamolous ridge around the Pole. It's ripe for it to happen. I think that results in a decent pattern for ay leadt 10-14 days. Mitch, in this thread further down Amy seems to think we might have such an event later in the winter. We are past due by several years, but that does not really mean anything in terms of when we do get a SSW event. I imagine the QBO is geared to a SSW event. I forget about whether they correlate more with Nino's versus Nina's. Do you know ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Man...that's a heck of a cold mean. I have a lot of outside jobs coming . I'll have to update my wardrobe ...lol. Most insane part is that the 25th percentile for the 3rd is -5 degrees for a low, and -15 is 5th percentile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Anybody know what this means? Is the PV getting stronger ? Is that heat flux. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Thankfully the gfs is backing down on the shred machine upper air pattern. You can see a shift towards allowing more amplification by hr 78. Hopefully this run does something and we can relax from the 12z disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 ^It's weak and short lived, not classify as true Stratospheric warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Thankfully the gfs is backing down on the shred machine upper air pattern. You can see a shift towards allowing more amplification by hr 78. Hopefully this run does something and we can relax from the 12z disaster. I can't see changes from 12z at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Thankfully the gfs is backing down on the shred machine upper air pattern. You can see a shift towards allowing more amplification by hr 78. Hopefully this run does something and we can relax from the 12z disaster. And then we were partly sunny again lol. I do agree it looked better at 66 out west but just went to crap from there. With all the model support it’s missing something in the upper air pattern that the others are catching onto. I believe the ensembles will be solid again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Probably just the bias that DT pointed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It looks awful to me at 102. No amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: It looks awful to me at 102. No amplification. Yea, spoke to soon. There's like no shortwave at 108 when all other guidance has one digging down. Gfs being stubborn and hates us. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Suppressed and weak. This won't be the run we are looking for. My opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just think that GFS is still "losing the storm". When all ensembles and several Ops are starting to get a consensus, the GFS does this. Remember, this is what it showed for the Christmas event just 3 days ago It took until hr 96 for the GFS to figure this storm out, while the GEFS already had figured it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Gives me pause. Op runs should be zeroing in somwewhat. It's looks like suppression despression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Gives me pause. Op runs should be zeroing in somwewhat. It's looks like suppression despression. Do not lose hope my friend. We have had a TON of support today from models that have performed much better as of late. The gfs ensembles as well are on our side. The gfs imho is missing something and will catch on. We’ve seen this so many times unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Gives me pause. Op runs should be zeroing in somwewhat. It's looks like suppression despression. One model is showing this. Would you rather have CMC, UK, Euro, and all ensembles in your camp or just the GFS. Food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: One model is showing this. Would you rather have CMC, UK, Euro, and all ensembles in your camp or just the GFS. Food for thought. Also, either way, we're out in the range where the ensembles are much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The thing that's so weird with the gfs is it isn't so much that the shortwave gets sheared/squashed. It that there is no shortwave at all and we're not talking super long leads. D3-4. That's the part I don't get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GEFS will lead the way. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 What it looks to me is there is enough spacing between waves so nothing can amplify.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The thing that's so weird with the gfs is it isn't so much that the shortwave gets sheared/squashed. It that there is no shortwave at all and we're not talking super long leads. D3-4. That's the part I don't get. Do shortwaves just disappear like that? (Does it ever show up on the map at any point in the run?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 If for some reason the GFS is right we will all be cringing the rest of the year with similar looks. Gefs may help. Old this be bad sampling (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Do shortwaves just disappear like that? (Does it ever show up on the map at any point in the run?) Not the one that the euro/ukie/cmc/jma have. It's totally MIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 From DT's post earlier today ""Anyone with ANY recollection of how GFS model has handle NE US snowstorms can easily recall the MANY times over past 20 years where the op GFS shows significant system past DAY 7 ....THEN "loses" it 108-156 tiem frame .... -THEN " finds it" once the event is within 96hrs. in some way it is encouraging when the op GFS runs do this...it means all is right with the world because the fookign GFS is up to its old bull**** again."" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It's never easy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not the one that the euro/ukie/cmc/jma have. It's totally MIA I mean even NAVGEM has it, albeit it is suppressed, so yes it is very odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Looks like the 18Z GFS is going to bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, usedtobe said: Looks like the 18Z GFS is going to bring it back. I'm not sure it's a bringback as much as keying on a totally different shortwave than all other guidance. Gfs is odd man out. Could be right but it's on its own right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 It seems like either way every operational model has shown snow within 240 hours. Must just be the pattern. Either way, the GFS is garbage right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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