ers-wxman1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: One run of the GFS and people are jumping. Evidently some have not followed the weather much this year. It’s hard to rely on any run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: One run of the GFS and people are jumping. Evidently some have not followed the weather much this year. Comments on a model run shouldn't be confused with or assumed to be opinions on the ultimate outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 trend of less digging on the Op....700 showed it quite clearly early on. Back to 1 hitter. Hope its a hot bat. Thank goodness I'm strapped in....gonna be a bumpy ride to the promise land. edit - what second storm... We are entering the typical "time to lose the storm" so, hey maybe were right where we wanna be. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 NPAC low crushes our PNA ridge....whatever s/w comes thru wont dig with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 The ridge out west is just too flat. Nothing will amplify with that look. Really disappointing trends overall. Even if something else comes down the line we are back to days 8,9,10+. It’s not over yet but we are now within about 4/5 days of that first wave being over the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 CMC has the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Remember the sim/sat Bob posted yesterday? This run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: CMC has the storm. 5-8" Sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Remember the sim/sat Bob posted yesterday? This run Mitch, what's the casue of that happening , no amplification ? The Western ridge or something else ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 5-8" Sign me up With the way this is trending, I’ll take that and walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, frd said: Mitch, what's the casue of that happening , no amplification ? The Western ridge or something else ? Yes and progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Remember the sim/sat Bob posted yesterday? This run Wow. Pattern way too progressive and squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Lol- I sleep in and wake up to this....what a shred factory on the gfs. I'll hug the cmc and go on about my business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 pick the model that finds you the most any snow and hug it for all its worth. and for the record, im just playing around. Fully expected "surprises", and not every one is a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol- I sleep in and wake up to this....what a shred factory on the gfs. I'll hug the cmc and go on about my business. Get behind me bro. Lol Euro will do something different. I will say the Ukie last night was a red flag too. What a mess. I think I'll turn everything off and dial 936-1212. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro will probably flip to last night's GFS solution now. Models be cray cray this winter. I won't start to panic until I wake up on December 26 and thing don't look any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I will say this....we can always fail but that long duration "downhill slope" in the upper levels shredding everything for days is suspect. I'm not buying into that progression. Cold and suppression probably isn't going to win like that. A pac shortwave hits every couple days. One or more will find a way for someone in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Quick thought before work. I took a look @ the 6z GEFS individuals and they are all over the place. Might sound weenie-ish, but I think it is safe to say the GFS is struggling with the upcoming pattern. It usually does when you are dealing with N stream systems. Unfortunately the models have seemingly lost that nice STJ moisture plume from last night, but it all depends what happens with the shortwaves out in the Pacific once they reach the coast. Long way to go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Well the GFS gives us a dusting with a reinforcing shot of cold next Saturday...lets see what the following weak sauce shortwave can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 No need to worry just yet, if this was the 00z Tuesday runs then I would say it might be time to start worrying. Honestly at this range I am not surprised by what we are seeing by the GFS and even the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 REMINDER: Every model run has the potential to be good/bad. Sack up and take any disappointment into the BANTER thread or PANIC ROOM. Keep this for model disco only and not your venting place. Happy Holidays, Junior management Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Well the GFS gives us a dusting with a reinforcing shot of cold next Saturday...lets see what the following weak sauce shortwave can do. I need some snow cover for some real cold numbers next Saturday night :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I will say this....we can always fail but that long duration "downhill slope" in the upper levels shredding everything for days is suspect. I'm not buying into that progression. Cold and suppression probably isn't going to win like that. A pac shortwave hits every couple days. One or more will find a way for someone in the east. This. The trend to flatter flow works both ways. Less likelihood of big phased bomb, but also less likely that everything is squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'll hug the CMC for now. Gives me about 9" late week. The 12z GEFS will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Or, the models are picking up on storm activity but overestimating the trough? (when surface temps didnt match 500mb, I use to always assume it was surface temps error. most times, like 70%, 500mb then trended toward the surface solution) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This. The trend to flatter flow works both ways. Less likelihood of big phases bomb, but also less likely that everything is squashed. A lot of why it gets suppressed is how the GFS handles up in Canada and all the models are typically pretty bad at that. The tendency here after so much disappointment is to believe the worst model solution. I'd be surprised to see us strike out before all the cold is used up but I've been surprised many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Get behind me bro. Lol Euro will do something different. I will say the Ukie last night was a red flag too. What a mess. I think I'll turn everything off and dial 936-1212. What did the Ukie show? Progressive? Squashed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: A lot of why it gets suppressed is how the GFS handles up in Canada and all the models are typically pretty bad at that. The tendency here after so much disappointment is to believe the worst model solution. I'd be surprised to see us strike out before all the cold is used up but I've been surprised many times. A voice of reason - I feel better. I can almost see this eventually being a Mid Atlantic special maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, frd said: A voice of reason - I feel better. I can almost see this eventually being a Mid Atlantic special maybe Yeah it's hard to be too pessimistic given that we have arctic air coming and the Euro shows 2 opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, usedtobe said: A lot of why it gets suppressed is how the GFS handles up in Canada and all the models are typically pretty bad at that. The tendency here after so much disappointment is to believe the worst model solution. I'd be surprised to see us strike out before all the cold is used up but I've been surprised many times. Ensembles are really struggling inside of 10 days right now. They seemingly support whatever the op shows. I expect the 12z gefs to be bad but that's only because the op was bad. I could see an easy fail with an inactive pattern and cold air. This is actually a fairly active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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