PhineasC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: He's referring to a cold trend. Not the pivot. But Mitchnick - I'm not sure that a lot of guidance is heading substantially colder - if anything I think we've warmed a touch on a lot of guidance. Definite colder trend from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, gymengineer said: This is the one you were looking for, Bobchill: pivotalweather shows a lot of sleet in the cities at that time on the GGEM. It shows less mixing along I95 for the GFS. There must a warm layer on the GGEM, but I haven't been able to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z JMA is perfectly acceptable in the QPF dept. Looks like other guidance in general. When the panels come up on meteocenter we can figure out temps/mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Is the UKMET still a wind-driven rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 is the NCEP site working for anyone right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Is the UKMET still a wind-driven rainstorm? Seems like a lot of mixing for sure. Can't tell on specifics though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, BTRWx said: #banthenam #banter Ok we are now close enough that a little talk about the NAM isn't crazy, and on top of that people were confused and that is never good so I tried to help. Someone else beat me too it actually. But come on yea we are in storm mode but there has to be a tiny bit of leeway to explain things so people aren't confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 So far only the GFS out the entire 12Z suite has that limited precip look on the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: ukie looks like another qpf bomb...hope its colder It's not. Might be a little warmer. Decent deform on the back for you though. I'm not sure what I think about the Ukie. It's by far the furthest left and warmest of all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok we are now close enough that a little talk about the NAM isn't crazy, and on top of that people were confused and that is never good so I tried to help. Someone else beat me too it actually. But come on yea we are in storm mode but there has to be a tiny bit of leeway to explain things so people aren't confused. My banter isn't about your analysis. It's the fact we need so many of the same model to do xyz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's not. Might be a little warmer. Decent deform on the back for you though. I'm not sure what I think about the Ukie. It's by far the furthest left and warmest of all guidance. These trends need to reverse soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: These trends need to reverse soon. huh? trends are great outside the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: huh? trends are great outside the Ukie. There's too many warm noses shooting up the gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: huh? trends are great outside the Ukie. What about GFS? For inside the beltway, it's been getting progressively worse with snow totals. (Someone posted a lovely 0z-6z-12z comparison a few pages back.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, BTRWx said: These trends need to reverse soon. There has been no warming trend today, if anything on the balance its been a bit of a step in the right direction over last night, but a small one. The UK being west/warm is not a trend given that plays into its biases well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The GFS cut back on snow/frozen totals because it stepped back with QPF. At least that's a better reason for lower frozen totals than notably worse temp profiles. It warmed in the midlevels a little from 6z but not a big jump or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The GFS cut back on snow/frozen totals because it stepped back with QPF. At least that's a better reason for lower frozen totals than notably worse temp profiles. It warmed in the midlevels a little from 6z but not a big jump or anything. and on top of that the GFS was a cold/east outlier. It came in line a bit with the rest of guidance somewhat but more importantly the warm guidance took a step back towards a colder solution. Looks like they are heading towards a compromise between the two camps from last night which works out way better for us then if the warmer models won outright and everything went towards them. That was the total fail option and it seems greatly reduced right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This is the warmest panel on the current ukie I could find. Panels before and after look good overall. Definitely not a lot warmer and track seems inline with most guidance (albeit western edge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, psuhoffman said: There has been no warming trend today, if anything on the balance its been a bit of a step in the right direction over last night, but a small one. The UK being west/warm is not a trend given that plays into its biases well. Disregarding the snowfall maps and specific in my back yard obs what I have seen seems to be a positive step for the overall area. Mixing is pretty much a forgone conclusion for the cities and probably quite a bit north and west of them as well. At this point we need to do damage control on limiting the north and west extent as well as the duration and from what I have seen we have gained some ground in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The GFS cut back on snow/frozen totals because it stepped back with QPF. At least that's a better reason for lower frozen totals than notably worse temp profiles. It warmed in the midlevels a little from 6z but not a big jump or anything. Thanks, had missed that. I think it seems pretty clear that moisture will not be the biggest problem, whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: This is the warmest panel on the current ukie I could find. Panels before and after look good overall. Definitely not a lot warmer and track seems inline with most guidance (albeit western edge) It's colder at the surface than its 00z run but 850s look about the same or a little worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Anybody got a total precip map for the UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Honestly I don't see how you guys get anything useful from the UK. Those maps are ridiculously bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Gfs trends posted by Nizol. Focus on the big picture and not so much imbys... imo, one can assume the 3 to 5 gradient would be close to the areas most at risk for the rain/snowline placement as far as trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 So how many degrees to we expect to get knocked off by evaporational cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the 6 hour CMC QPF panels. 0z-6z / 6z-12z / 12z-18z. First image is mislabeled but it's timestamped. Very nice through 6z. On the wet side of guidance. Then pretty intense overnight through the corridor. Deform love at the end. @Bob Chill Is this all snow through 06z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: Gfs trends posted by Nizol. Focus on the big picture and not so much imbys... Except the problem is you're using snow maps to diagnose trends better diagnosed by other panels and parameters. I'm not saying there isn't a trend but you could have picked many better maps to show your point. There could easily be a ton of sleet in borderline areas - and those snow maps are often overdone anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: It's colder at the surface than its 00z run but 850s look about the same. Exactly. I don't seen any of the latest guidance throwing up red flags at the moment. Mix will happen but I think the trends toward a more consolidated system with a decent shot at 3-5 hours of backend deform band for nova/DC is a good trend that is showing on multiple models... We could definitely be in a worst situation here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Disregarding the snowfall maps and specific in my back yard obs what I have seen seems to be a positive step for the overall area. Mixing is pretty much a forgone conclusion for the cities and probably quite a bit north and west of them as well. At this point we need to do damage control on limiting the north and west extent as well as the duration and from what I have seen we have gained some ground in that regard. I would expect at least SOME mixing (sleet) to occur anywhere southeast of a line from Washington VA to Ashburn to Reisterstown, to Hereford. Once about 10 miles southeast of 95 the mixing could become the majority of the storm. But in the transition zone (which includes about 80% of the population of this board) I can see the totals ranging from 5-10" depending on exactly how much thump we get before a flip, and how long it sleets, and how much deform after. Northwest of that line I think is 10"+ at least from Leesburg northeast. I could also see how this flips in our favor if that deform band wraps up and just unleashes on us and the thermals suddenly crash and everyone ends up happy. Don't expect it but holding out hope is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Except the problem is you're using snow maps to diagnose trends better diagnosed by other panels and parameters. I'm not saying there isn't a trend but you could have picked many better maps to show your point. There could easily be a ton of sleet in borderline areas - and those snow maps are often overdone anyway. This. And also I see value in using those maps to see when/where/shape the deform band plans to take place. Imo I think the last 2 gfs runs are coming inline with the rest of the group which isn't bad since everyone is at least looking at a reasonable snow to close out the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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