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WxWatcher007

Model discussion--1/5-1/8 Period of Interest

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Tracking two potential waves for the weekend. Today's trend evident. I shall bear the stench of failure if we lose.

My personal bar is one inch otg by Sunday night imby. Keep Panic posts in The Panic Room.

Begin.

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I don't mind the MJO hatred.  Just as I thought, chances of the MJO shifting to phase 7 or 8 are unlikely until after January 20.

Based upon all this discussion in this thread, our hopes are shifting towards February.  "In everyone's life a few nearly snowless

winters must pass".

 

ensplume_full.gif

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13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Tracking two potential waves for the weekend. Today's trend evident.I shall bear the stench of failure if we lose.

My personal bar is one inch otg by Sunday night imby. Keep Panic posts in The Panic Room.

Begin.

It is a difficult burden of fail that you bear, but we will assist and guide you, as the threadbearer, through it! ;)

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Happy hour not so happy I know, but we still have time for this to shift north right? Didn't someone somewhere in here say that this winter will be all about short lead times? 

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Yeah, I'm just not buying that much snow that far south. If it seems unlikely, it probably is unlikely. That kind of solution only has a bit of support on the 12z GEFS and basically none on the 12z EPS. 

I'm definitely waiting it out. 

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I say we take e9 of the 12z GEFS and call it a day ;)

Lets see what the 18z GEFS members say... I kind of too doubt that much snow down there... but who knows?

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23 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

How much for Rochester?

Jack sh*t for the 40N crew. 

18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Good idea.  Long range thread full.  Going to have to start a new one.

Yeah, I don't like having my name attached to this though. I told God that I'm cashing in all the magic left over from the Clipper That Did thread for this one. On a serious note, I don't think this threat is dead yet it's just evolving. Maybe from wave two threat to the frontrunner bringing a light event, but that's a lot better than not getting on the board. We don't do complicated well around here, especially near the cities, and if we leave this window with something on the board that's a win IMO.  

9 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

It is a difficult burden of fail that you bear, but we will assist and guide you, as the threadbearer, through it! ;)

I'm ready. I'm not a mod but LET IT BE KNOWN NOW--I may not have had much time to post recently, but if people use this thread to start canceling winter and/or January 

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8 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

Ready for all of my friends down south to pass me up in snow totals this winter.

 

By the end of this week, Myrtle Beach may have more snow than Boston, NYC, Philly, and DC combined. :lol: 

Ok. All business now from me. Much of the analysis from others remains the same. I think we lost significant ground today on all the models with the potential from wave two. That said, the 00z GFS was a straight up outlier last night. Expectations should be kept in check, we still have a lot that needs to be resolved with the upper level features and timing. Trends come and go, so getting more consensus among the guidance in the upper levels is what I'm looking for at this period.  

 

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Its happy hour. My glass is half full. Why does it look like I need a refill then...er, anyway, lets see if we can find some silver lining in the guidance we have so far.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Its happy hour. My glass is half full. Why does it look like I need a refill then...er, anyway, lets see if we can find some silver lining in the guidance we have so far.

Seems we have decent consensus for a dusting-1" for Thursday night/Friday morning?  

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Seems we have decent consensus for a dusting-1" for Thursday night/Friday morning?  

I think so. Maybe low end advisory if things break right? Lets hope 0z tonight doesn't crush that dream.

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems we have decent consensus for a dusting-1" for Thursday night/Friday morning?  

Looks like it on the 18z GEFS members as well through 84

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I will offer this up, with full acknowledgement that the GFS seems to be on an island all alone- Looking at the MSLP on the 12z GEFS, there are an impressive amount of members with low pressure along the east coast this weekend, very close to us or within reasonable striking distance.

Be interesting to see what the 18z GEFS looks like very shortly.

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Just now, yoda said:

Looks like it on the 18z GEFS members as well through 84

Yup.  And I think 18z GEFS is closer yet again to the Euro for the 2nd wave.  More suppressed and weaker than the Op.  

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Yup.  And I think 18z GEFS is closer yet again to the Euro for the 2nd wave.  More suppressed and weaker than the Op.  

Yeah, wave one has more of my attention than wave two honestly. What do you think is the upper potential for that one? Ceiling feels low but with good timing and more amplification maybe we can pull in a solid advisory event that gets us on the board. 

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I said this earlier, but us wx weenie veterans have seen it so many times @ this range. If it is GFS vs All you're either going to see the other models quickly concede to the GFS or, like what is seemingly happening here, the GFS slowly conceding to the other models, run by run. Right now I'd be excited if I lived in the Deep South IMO. I'm still a long way out from giving up because our potential storm depends on how strong that shortwave is exiting the NW CONUS and were a long way from getting good sampling on that.

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, wave one has more of my attention than wave two honestly. What do you think is the upper potential for that one? Ceiling feels low but with good timing and more amplification maybe we can pull in a solid advisory event that gets us on the board. 

1-3" somewhere in our region is possible IMO. Right now I would say the best chance is coastal DE. And I am fully prepared to head down to Rehoboth, not that I need any extra incentive to visit Dogfish Head Brew Pub.

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Even this often aggressive prognosis from WPC looks bleak..   That's the 24 hour probability for more 1" up to 00Z 06 Jan.  Even though it's a bit early for the second wave in our area, would anticipate it would show more snow for the regions further west than it does. 

http://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=24&ptype=snow

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8 or so of the 20 members from the 18z GEFS have DCA at around 1 inch of snow through 96 hrs (for the Thurs night into early Friday "event")

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9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, wave one has more of my attention than wave two honestly. What do you think is the upper potential for that one? Ceiling feels low but with good timing and more amplification maybe we can pull in a solid advisory event that gets us on the board. 

 

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

1-3" somewhere in our region is possible IMO. Right now I would say the best chance is coastal DE. And I am fully prepared to head down to Rehoboth, not that I need any extra incentive to visit Dogfish Head Brew Pub.

Yeah, I think that's probably upper limit.  Yesterday's earlier runs dug the vort much more, but that just created a stronger storm farther offshore.  Probably we would want a more distinct s/w to pass just to our south and let the lift from the wave be enough to squeeze out 1-2".  I'm not sure we can get the coastal to pop close enough to us.  

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's slipping away...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_21.png

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_20.png

 

 

Was never really in on wave two. I'm just waiting for the signal for me to hope and pray to squeeze as much out of wave one as possible. Maybe we get a reverse trend or enough spacing to get a graze, but a big event from wave two seems almost totally off the table after today's movement. Storm is a ways away, but resolving the upstream features that determine what the former does is not. 

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