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Zelocita Weather

Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion

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I read a tweet that it did and was another miss to the south. Maybe someone can confirm? If it was indeed another total miss, I'd say it's an extreme outlier right now based on 12z and 18z today

12z euro para not out yet. Right now on wb it's only he 00z which was a complete miss

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Yup. A Full Wolf Moon and near hurricane force winds. It's going to get messy along the coast.

yea. Hoping folks on NJ coast are paying attention to this storm. They learned their lesson from sandy.

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On the other hand if it occluded 6-12 hours later the heaviest snows would be further NE but you'd have more mixing issues I'd think.

I think everyone wants this to occlude later. Early occlusion also wraps more warm air around the low. Later occlusion might nudge the track a little east, and the coast-for coastal flooding reasons as well as warm air wrapping in-wants the stall/occlude to be offshore. A NE wind would be better than an ENE wind for piling up less water. 

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12z euro para not out yet. Right now on wb it's only he 00z which was a complete miss

Yeah it's been running late, the 00Z was a good 5 hours late today this one is already almost 2

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I think everyone wants this to occlude later. Early occlusion also wraps more warm air around the low. Later occlusion might nudge the track a little east, and the coast-for coastal flooding reasons as well as warm air wrapping in-wants the stall/occlude to be offshore. A NE wind would be better than an ENE wind for piling up less water.

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CIPS Analogs.

 

COOPmedgfs212F120.png

 

#3 =0

 

Here are the analogs from CIPS for this upcoming storm. They were all big blizzards : 1983, Blizzard of 1996, Feb 2010,Dec 2010

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If I could pick a spot I would want to see the 84 hour NAM be based on its usual 84 hour bias, tonight's 00Z is just about ideal

Care to elaborate please? I'm assuming it's very amped.

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Guys forky created a model thread for the storm, dont jump over now mid pbp but for the future stuff just head over there if you remember.

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Guys forky created a model thread for the storm, dont jump over now mid pbp but for the future stuff just head over there if you remember.

That's annoying...all images, etc, have gone here up until now.

Plus the lame, nondescript title of the thread - "model dropbox" - will throw many off.

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That's annoying...all images, etc, have gone here up until now.

Plus the lame, nondescript title of the thread - "model dropbox" - will throw many off.

 

Agreed.

 

There is little need to divide discussion even further, IMO.

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That's annoying...all images, etc, have gone here up until now.

Plus the lame, nondescript title of the thread - "model dropbox" - will throw many off.

I agree if this is the coastalk storm discussion then this where is PBP should go. was tough enough when this thread wasnt pinned, now that it is this would be really confusing and diffusing for dicussion

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Personally, my suggestion is that model images used as support for points raised should go here and those one wants to save for posterity should go in the dropbox thread.

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Complicated  and challenging forecast ahead.  Sharp cut off of where the heaviest snow falls (mesoscale banding) and the rain snow line.

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Personally, my suggestion is that model images used as support for points raised should go here and those one wants to save for posterity should go in the dropbox thread.

'Twas my assumption as well... Now it seems we'll have to click back and forth.

Weak sauce.

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I see no reason to be concerned with mixing on island. Many times before was suppose to buy never happens,at least not on northern side of island.

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