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Roger Smith

2015 NATL Tropical (hurricane season) forecast contest

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Season: 11/5/2

(May 1/0/0)

June: 1/0/0

July: 1/1/0

August: 3/1/0

September: 4/3/2

Oct: 1/0/0

Nov-Dec: 0/0/0

Edited May 27th

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Season: 6 / 2 / 0 (accounting for Ana having formed)

 

June: 1 / 0 / 0

July: 1 / 0 / 0

August: 2 / 1 / 0

September: 1 / 1 / 0

October-November: 0 / 0 / 0

 

For good measure, I do not expect any U.S. hurricane landfalls this season.

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Revised seasonal forecast based on my expectation of a strengthening El Nino as the season progresses. Of course, I may regret this adjustment by the end of the season. 

Season = 9/4/1

May = 1/0/0

June = 1/0/0

July = 1/1/0

August = 2/1/0

September = 3/2/1

October = 1/0/0

Nov-Dec = 0/0/0

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I will keep reminding entrants (through the topic sub-head) that you can always amend monthly forecasts down the road, at least those months that have not then started.

Roger,

So, are you saying that all we need to do by 6Z on 6/1 is to pick seasonal (which incorporates Ana) and June to not have a disadvantage in this contest? I want to make sure there is no advantage in going ahead and picking July+ monthlies because I see that everyone has done just that. Last year, virtually everyone only picked each month just before that respective month. So, I want to make sure there's no incentive to go ahead and pick all months by 6/1. I was probably just going to pick seasonal and June for now.

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Gawx, that's fine, I will keep reminding entrants that they are free to revise monthly forecasts before various months start. You only have to announce a seasonal and a June forecast at this stage. I will post provisionals for you and if you forget (which seems unlikely) or if you see them as being valid for your own forecast later, then they stand up until you revise them. The provisionals will follow the logic of your seasonal forecast as compared to the contest normals.

 

I have edited the table to add in the latest entries. So far the consensus of 26 entries is 10/5/2 which means that we as a group expect a further 9/5/2 season ahead.

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Season: 8/3/1

 

May – 1/0/0

June – 0/0/0

July – 0/0/0/

August – 3/1/0

September – 4/2/1

October – 0/0/0

November + December – 0/0/0

 

(3 U.S. landfalls, inclusive of Ana. No hurricane landfalls for the U.S.)

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Entries received so far ... there are 35 forum member forecasts, and I have added our consensus (median) as well as the NOAA mid-range (they predict 6-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 0-2 major). That value is quite similar to our consensus. Just so I can score the NOAA forecast equivalently to the contest entrants, I scaled the contest normal values to their lower predictions.

 

The contest is now into time penalty phase for seasonal forecasts and June monthlies, see post #1 for details. You can still win this with an accurate seasonal forecast, as you have only lost about 5% of potential score there. Your potential loss for June is also less than one point out of fifty. This table will be edited if new entries come in. Seasonal forecasts do not need to match the totals of your monthlies and if they don't, you are now stuck with your forecast in the table below. Consensus for example has a different total from monthly values if we include May. Now that I have these into an excel file I can post the means which so far are identical to one decimal place with or without NOAA (will update July to end of season as revised monthlies are submitted) and they are slightly different from consensus which is a median value, at this point, the median is the 18th ranked forecast out of 35, not including Contest Normal and NOAA.

 

A check has been made on accuracy from your posts to this table, and these are the posted forecasts as of June 9th 2 p.m. EDT. Please note if you check, May is not included in the table (that might throw off your checking, start from your posted June forecast). Noted name change -- Avanthiatus was weatherguy701.

 

Aug 30th -- Any changes posted for September have been edited into the table.

 

Aug 31st -- scores for June, July, August now appear in orange.

 

Sep 30th -- scores for September now appear also in orange.

 

Oct 24th _ scores have been updated based on an October finish of 0,0,0 and a seasonal that would then require a November-December count of 1,0,0. These provisional scores will be updated again if necessary.

 

Nov 11th _ NOV-DEC now stands at 1,1,0 and provisional total scores are posted assuming this is the end of the season. A 12th storm will change seasonal totals, NOV-DEC scores and contest totals. See a later post for potential scoring for 12,4,2.

 

Current seasonal projection 11 4 2 (seasonal scores derived from these values, watch for updates)

 

 

FORECASTER _____ SEASON __ June __ July__ August _ September_ October _ Nov-Dec ___ mo. Totals /

______________________________________________________________________________/ Contest total

 

Roger Smith ___18 10 4_00.0_ 110 3.5 _ 210 5.0 _ 32112.0 _ 642 6.0__ 421 0.0__ 1001.5___ 28.0 ___ 28.0

Avanthiatus ___ 16 12 6_00.0_ 110 3.5 _ 211 4.5 _ 32112.0 _ 442 9.0__ 331 0.0__ 2111.0___ 30.0 ___ 30.0

 

Contest Normal _ 15 7 3_33.0_ 100 4.0 _ 100 6.0 _ 42111.0 _ 53112.0__ 321 0.0__ 0001.0___ 34.0 ___ 67.0

 

Hvward ________15 6 3_36.0_ 100 4.0 _ 210 5.0 _ 31010.0 _ 42214.0__ 321 0.0__ 1001.5___ 34.5 ___ 70.5

Isentropic Lift___ 13 6 1_43.0_ 210 3.0 _ 310 4.0 _ 210 9.0 _ 43113.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 39.0 ___ 82.0

Chaser25973 ___ 13 5 1_45.0_ 210 3.0 _ 100 6.0 _ 32112.0 _ 42014.0__ 100 9.0__ 1001.5___ 45.5 ___ 90.5

dmillz25 _______ 13 4 2_47.0_ 100 4.0 _ 200 5.5 _ 31111.0 _ 42115.0__ 210 6.0__ 0001.0___ 42.5 ___ 89.5

AlaskaETC _____ 12 5 4_45.0_ 100 4.0 _ 210 5.0 _ 32211.0 _ 42214.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 44.0 ___ 89.0

N. of Pike ______12 5 3_47.0_ 000 3.5 _ 100 6.0 _ 210 9.0 _ 53211.0__ 311 2.0__ 0001.0___ 32.5 ___ 79.5

ksammut ______ 12 4 1_48.0_ 100 4.0 _ 210 5.0 _ 31010.0 _ 31115.0__ 210 6.0__ 0001.0___ 41.0 ___ 89.0

Mallow ________ 11 6 3_46.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 21110.0 _ 32213.0__ 220 4.0__ 1001.5___ 38.0 ___ 83.0

LakeEffectKing __ 11 5 3_48.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 31111.0 _ 32114.0__ 111 7.0__ 1001.5___ 43.0 ___ 91.0

Rjay __________ 11 5 2_49.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 31010.0 _ 43212.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 41.5 ___ 90.5

Stebo _________ 11 5 2_49.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0__ 110 8.0__ 1001.5___ 42.0 ___ 91.0

metalicwx366 ___ 10 7 4_40.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 32112.0 _ 33211.0__ 111 7.0__ 0001.0___ 40.5 ___ 80.5

Yoda __________ 10 4 2_49.0_ 000 3.5 _ 100 6.0 _ 200 7.0 _ 43113.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 39.5 ___ 88.5

Troy1234 ______ 10 4 2_49.0_ 100 4.0 _ 210 5.0 _ 21110.0 _ 32114.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 43.0 ___ 92.0
Tom ___________ 9 6 1_43.0_ 110 3.5 _ 110 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0__ 110 8.0__ 0001.0___ 41.0 ___ 84.0

Torchageddon ____9 5 2_46.0_ 100 4.0 _ 100 6.0 _ 32112.0 _ 33112.0__ 00010.0__ 0001.0___ 45.0 ___ 91.0

 

Actual to date ___11 4 2 _____100 ____ 100 ____ 321 _____411 _____ 000 _____ 110

(Consensus) ____ 9 4 2_47.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0 ___ 42.5 ___ 89.5

Mean*________10.0 4.7 1.9___0.8 0.2 0___1.3 0.6 0__2.3 1.2 0.4__3.1 2.0 1.1__1.3 0.6 0.2__0.3 0 0

_ _ scores for mean  ____ 48.3 ____  3.9 ___ 5.8 ____ 10.7 ____ 14.0 _____ 7.7 _____ 1.1 ____ 43.5 ___ 91.8

 

Amped _________ 9 5 1_45.0_ 100 4.0 _ 210 5.0 _ 31111.0 _ 21012.0__ 220 4.0__ 0001.0___ 37.0 ___ 82.0

Wannabehippie ___9 5 1_45.0_ 000 3.5 _ 110 5.5 _ 31010.0 _ 42115.0__ 110 8.0__ 0001.0___ 43.0 ___ 88.0

Andyhb _________9 4 2_47.0_ 000 3.5 _ 210 5.0 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 41.5 ___ 88.5

Icebreaker5221 ___9 4 2_47.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 21113.0__ 110 8.0__ 0001.0___ 40.5 ___ 87.5

UThant _________ 9 4 2_47.0_ 000 3.5 _ 100 6.0 _ 32011.0 _ 32213.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 43.5 __ 90.5

ncforecaster89 ____9 4 1_46.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 42.5 ___ 88.5

..

NOAA mid-range _ _8.5 4.5 1 44.3_000 3.5_100 6.0 _210 9.0 _ 321 14.0__210 6.0__ 0001.0___ 39.5 ___ 83.8

 

Isotherm ________8 4 2_44.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 21110.0 _ 22112.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 41.5 ___ 85.5

OHweather ______ 8 4 2_44.0_ 000 3.5 _ 100 6.0 _ 210 9.0 _ 32114.0__ 111 7.0__ 0001.0___ 40.5 ___ 84.5

wxmx __________ 8 4 1_43.0_ 100 4.0 _ 100 6.0 _ 22111.0 _ 22011.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 42.0 ___ 85.0

DonSutherland.1 __8 3 1_42.0_ 000 3.5 _ 000 5.5 _ 31010.0 _ 42115.0__ 00010.0__ 0001.0___ 45.0 ___ 87.0

Juliancolton ______8 3 0_40.0_ 100 4.0 _ 000 5.5 _ 210 9.0 _ 32013.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0___ 41.5 ___ 81.5

mackerel_sky _____8 2 0_38.0_ 000 3.5 _ 110 5.5 _ 200 7.0 _ 31014.0__ 200 7.0__ 0001.0___ 38.0 ___ 76.0

PSUBlizzicane2007 _7 4 2_40.0_ 100 4.0 _ 110 5.5 _ 22111.0 _ 21113.0__ 00010.0__ 0001.0___ 44.5 ___ 84.5

hurricaneman _____7 4 1_39.0_ 110 3.5 _ 110 5.5 _ 110 7.0 _ 21113.0__ 00010.0__ 1001.5___ 40.5 ___ 79.5

Gawx ___________7 3 1_38.0_ 100 4.0 _ 000 5.5 _ 110 7.0 _ 21113.0__ 110 8.0__ 0001.0___ 38.5 ___ 76.5

Ground Scouring __ 6 2 0_29.0_ 100 4.0 _ 100 6.0 _ 210 9.0 _ 110 9.0 __ 00010.0__ 0001.0___ 39.0 ___ 68.0

Absolute Humidity _ 5 2 2_26.0_ 000 3.5 _ 100 6.0 _ 111 8.0 _ 21113.0__ 100 9.0__ 0001.0 ___ 40.5 ___ 66.5

________________________________________________________________________________

 

* mean includes all forecasts but not Contest Normal or consensus.

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Under the posted rules, monthly forecasts do not need to add up to the provided seasonal forecast. So the table is now "locked" as to seasonal forecasts, if you meant to have some hedging of your bets, fine, if you just added up wrong, too late now.

 

THE TABLE OF FORECASTS IS NOW UPDATED TO INCLUDE MEANS (post 47 above).

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Bill's soggy rampage has left us at 2/0/0 seasonal and 1/0/0 June.

 

Under the rules, you can adjust July monthly forecasts at any time before 06z July 1st without penalty or even later but suffer the time penalty. And if for any reason you want to adjust any other months then post those updates. The contest does not award any adjusted scores for seasonal forecasts so any updates you post are for information purposes only.

 

If you're happy with your July forecast as posted in the table above (post 47) take no further action. Gawx, this includes yourself, you can coast along with the provisionals that I worked out for you if you agree with them.

 

Will post some scores after July for the first two months, you can pretty much count on 4 points if you said 100 for June, and 3.5 if you said either 000 or 110, and that covers almost everyone -- assuming we see no further named storms in the next eight days.

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Just a note to contest entrants, check the August monthly forecast in your entry (post 47) and if you wish to revise that, enter it now to (06z) August 1st without penalty. We are not scoring revised seasonal forecasts, you can post them but they won't be part of any scoring. Also, FYI, if you said 1 0 0 for June and July, if there are no further storms then you have scored 10/10 so far in the monthly section. For each 1 1 0 or 0 0 0 that you submitted, you have scored 0.5 less (9.5 for one if the other was correct, or 9.0 for any two of those). Anything further from the actual will result in lower scores by an increasing amount under the scoring system. The 2 1 0 forecasts will score 3 out of 4 in June and 5 out of 6 in July. The score for 2 1 1 in July would be 4.5 out of 6, if things remain inactive.

 

Since most players have those sorts of forecasts and many are in the range of 9 to 10 out of 10 so far, I will start posting some preliminary scoring after August (which is worth 12 of the 50 points awarded for monthly forecasts). August scores will vary more because of a larger range and also because points are deducted in full and not at the 50% rate of the smaller scoring months June and July (and Nov-Dec by the way, the main event months get the full reductions).

 

So to recap, post any August revised monthly forecasts in the thread. Thanks.

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