MGorse Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Just got pelted with sleet walking to car in Bel Air. Car temp says 58. What the heck?!?! I did not see this coming. From NWS Mount Holly's updated AFD: WE ARE ADDING POPS SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE ABOVE 700MB. EVEN ISOLATED THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL HAS OCCURRED IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. LATEST HRRR WAS USED AS AN AREAL AND TIMING TREND. THE PREDICTED ECHO INTENSITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE WAS LOWER OVER OUR CWA, SO OPTED FOR PLAIN SHOWERS FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Do we need a refresher on the difference between sleet and hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I caught the edge of the same batch and got a trace o' rain. It was cool to watch it move by under otherwise starry skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 18Z GFS still has us in the rain, but really dumps on NNE. GFS also gets the LE cranking during the period. GFS agrees with WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Do we need a refresher on the difference between sleet and hail? Definitely wasn't hail. Happened up in Millersville too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 My prediction from last night, then in parentheses observed temps this morning: BWI: 32F (37F) IAD: 29F (35F) DCA:40F (44F) RIC: 32F (32F) IMBY... Inland: 29F (31.5F) Water: 35F (41F) I give myself an A+ I'm in Wisconsin, but Wxbug showed a friggin' 40F low this morning back home. 40F? WTF happened to the freeze watch? Richmond was 32F and we were 40? Jeezus, that's pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Definitely wasn't hail. Happened up in Millersville too Not sure how you get sleet when temps from 700 mb down to the surface are well above freezing, but what do I know. I'll go with the met at the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yeah, too warm aloft for sleet. Small hail from low-toppers and sleet look pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I hope crazyblizz can make it to work in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Yeah, too warm aloft for sleet. Small hail from low-toppers and sleet look pretty much the same. idk about that dp in York, PA, very close to Mapgirl, was in the mid teens, so evaporational cooling aloft could have produced some sleet imho http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 idk about that dp in York, PA, very close to Mapgirl, was in the mid teens, so evaporational cooling aloft could have produced some sleet imho http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTHV.html Hmm not sure on that. When 700 mb to the surface is above freezing, and from the surface up to about 5000 ft is 10 C or higher, cant see how you get sleet. Most places were reporting surface temps in the mid 50s at that time. I have never seen sleet with surface temps higher than the low to mid 40s, and even then temps would have to cool rapidly with height for it to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Anybody else see a mettor/fireball in the sky tonight? Looks like i missed seeing it... https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/529476226537521153/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Hmm not sure on that. When 700 mb to the surface is above freezing, and from the surface up to about 5000 ft is 10 C or higher, cant see how you get sleet. Most places were reporting surface temps in the mid 50s at that time. I have never seen sleet with surface temps higher than the low to mid 40s, and even then temps would have to cool rapidly with height for it to occur. Trust me, I know. Very unlikely that it happened, but...it happened. Perhaps it was hail, very small hail. Whatever, either way, something in the form of ice fell at my house last night. Hail, sleet, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Everyone is talking about the difference between sleet and hail, and I'm just like...MG jackpots again Funny you say that, I thought the same thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Trust me, I know. Very unlikely that it happened, but...it happened. Perhaps it was hail, very small hail. Whatever, either way, something in the form of ice fell at my house last night. Hail, sleet, oh well. Oh I dont doubt that it happened. I saw the obs. There were also reports of thunder, and the steep lapse rates aloft along with the very mild low/mid level temps all point to hail. For sleet to occur there has to be a deep layer of cold with a shallow warm layer above that, and of course below freezing upward from there where snow would form. There was some really dry air at low levels as Mitch mentioned, which was clear on the sounding, but I dont know if evap cooling would do the trick, and given all the other data being supportive of hail, it likely was hail you experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I wish I had seen slail yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Gonna be a long winter if this sleet/hail debate is any indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Gonna be a long winter if this sleet/hail debate is any indication. Its just an indication of general boredom with the weather. We are all ready for something more interesting, which may be just on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Gfs drops the idea of a drencher on Thursday. Looking like just showers and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 IAD hit 33F...again. Looks like we'll have to wait for Saturday morning at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 IAD hit 33F...again. Looks like we'll have to wait for Saturday morning at least. ?? It was 49F in Stephens City. What the heck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 ?? It was 49F in Stephens City. What the heck? Inversion. It is in the 60s currently in some of the places above 1000ft. Also, I consider IAD to be worse than DCA on low temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Gfs drops the idea of a drencher on Thursday. Looking like just showers and light rain. WPC still likes a general inch of rain for the area. 0z GFS was really wet, so I guess you are speaking of the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Inversion. It is in the 60s currently in some of the places above 1000ft. Also, I consider IAD to be worse than DCA on low temps. 2014110412.72403.skewt.parc.gif Wow. That is some inversion. Thanks for the explanation. I'm still bitter though.... and I'm not even there. It's even warm up here in Wisconsin. Warm air just seems to follow me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 36 for my low. I too have yet to see 32 or less. I do not think that I should be too concerned! This winter is looking plenty cold. It is time to plant Spring Flower bulbs if you have not! This is more ideal than earlier in the fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Low of 38F inland, and 43F on the water. Regarding last night... the hail occurred here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Its a perfect day to rake leaves...low 60's, dry, and no wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2014 Author Share Posted November 4, 2014 Man, gfs showing a nice tap of the gulf as the trough amplifies on Sun. If it rains it will be cold but seeing storms pull together like that sure is tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Airmass that the 13km GFS brings in next week would verbatim break the record low max temp and record low temp for IAD next Wednesday and maybe also record low max at BWI (both airports' records are 41F for November 12th) with screaming winds. It drops a 1050 mb (!!!) high down into the Plains with a deep upper low (perler vertex) passing through the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Airmass that the 13km GFS brings in next week would verbatim break the record low max temp and record low temp for IAD next Wednesday and maybe also record low max at BWI (both airports' records are 41F for November 12th) with screaming winds. It drops a 1050 mb (!!!) high down into the Plains with a deep upper low (perler vertex) passing through the Lakes. That would be some nice cold and would be great to see #polarvertex back again on Twitterverse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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