stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 LOL nam.... Nam is trying to go back to that crazy solution from last night. Looks pretty wet but still south of where it was last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Insane gradient on the NAM. .10" liquid in northern Cook to almost an 1" of liquid southern cook. wouldn't be the first time something like that has happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 And now IWX pulls the trigger URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA357 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014...WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY....HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTOWEDNESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST THROUGHFAR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A PERIODOF RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTDURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF SLEET IS ALSOEXPECTED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TRANSITION. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALLFROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS GENERALLYEXPECTED TO BE IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE. NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ONWEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE TREE BRANCHES TO BEBLOWN DOWN... POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES.INZ003>007-012-014-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-120400-/O.UPG.KIWX.WS.A.0005.140312T0400Z-140312T2100Z//O.NEW.KIWX.WS.W.0006.140312T0400Z-140312T2100Z/LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-STARKE-MARSHALL-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...BASS LAKE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...CULVER...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON357 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014 /257 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED AWINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH ISIN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT TO 5 PM EDT /4 PMCDT/ WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * TIMING...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW ACCUMULATION...6 TO 9 INCHES... WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR...AND NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CAUSE TREE BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 LOT going 4-8" with locally higher amounts in the updated warning text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 LOT going 4-8" with locally higher amounts in the updated warning text. a fair call given the gradient and signal for banding nearby. really riding the line on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 wouldn't be the first time something like that has happened. Was just going to say. South side does fairly well on the 18z NAM where as the north side, totals could be more than halved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 About 9" for Detroit this run compared to 7" last on the NAM. Also juicier for Cleveland metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Was just going to say. South side does fairly well on the 18z NAM where as the north side, totals could be more than halved. Still shows 5" or so here verbatim but it's close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Reminder that 9.6 inches would put Detroit at snowiest winter of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 chasing totals aside, this wouldn't be half bad...40 dbz weenie band ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Reminder that 9.6 inches would put Detroit at snowiest winter of all time. Regardless I think the chances are very, very good we'll break it this winter if we get at least 6" from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Only thing that i'm worried about is the DTX jinx now...warning is out...However, watch areas between m46 and m59 end up winners....where they are expecting the least amounts of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 45° and -RN in Milwaukee now. Still fairly mild out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 ILX is upgrading me to a warning. FXUS63 KILX 112015AFDILXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Lincoln IL315 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 305 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014SHORT TERM...Tonight through FridayBack to winter late tonight through Wednesday with the potentialfor heavy wet snow over parts of our northern counties along withgusty winds into the daylight hours of Wednesday. Will upgradeto a warning for our extreme north/northeast counties whichincludes Marshall, Woodford and McLean and extend the WinterWeather Advisory southward a row of counties for late tonightthrough Wednesday morning.Models in general agreement in taking the surface low acrosssouthern Illinois late tonight and Wednesday morning putting ourfar northern counties in line for some significant snow totalsby Wednesday morning. However, NAM and GFS forecast soundingsshowing mostly rain for this evening, which will translate overto wet snow a little before midnight northwest, and after midnightacross the east. Very impressive and deep omega coninciding withdeep moisture in the favored dendritic zone along and north ofthe I74 corridor in the 06z to 10z time frame and that will be thetime frame where heavy wet snow will occur with a few areas seeingsnowfall rates of 2 inches per hour. With the explosive forcingseen in the dendritic layer late tonight, along with some negativeEPV present, expect the atmospheric column to cool significantlyenough for snow to start accumulating quickly, usually quickerthan expected. Wouldn't be surprised to see some lightning strikesin the snow band late this evening into the overnight hours aswell to complicate matters. One negative factor for some greaterthan 8 inch snow amounts will be the speed of the system as allmodels suggest a fairly rapid decrease in omega/moisture fromnorthwest to southeast starting around 12z Wednesday.Wind will be another factor and a strong pressure fall/risecouplet seen on model data late tonight as the surface low trackseast across southern Illinois. At this time, it appears our surfacewind gusts will be borderline wind advisory criteria, so for now,will hold off any additional advisories. The stronger pressurerises late tonight will be over south central through southeastIllinois so that would be the area to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Only thing that i'm worried about is the DTX jinx now...warning is out...However, watch areas between m46 and m59 end up winners....where they are expecting the least amounts of snow Would not be shocked at all to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 45° and -RN in Milwaukee now. Still fairly mild out. temp has been slowly but surely dropping here...we got warmer than I excpected but are cooling off nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 3-6" here in advisory text but go 2 miles east into DuPage co and it's 4-8" locally higher. One of those cases where that gradient could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 18z NAM got wetter for YYZ. Solidly 0.6-0.7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 81 at STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 chasing totals aside, this wouldn't be half bad...40 dbz weenie band ftw I expect full on rippage with my 5 am morning post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 temp falling fast down to 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 81 at STL Wow! Was that expected? Or is their increased WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Wow! Was that expected? Or is their increased WAA? I recall it being progged by various model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 LSX just issued a WWA for the Quincy, IL area for 2-3" of snow and strong winds. They are 70 degrees right now. Gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I see the NAM came back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 18z NAM got wetter for YYZ. Solidly 0.6-0.7". I think ~6-8" is a good call for most of the GTA. Higher amounts towards Oakville/Hamilton. Whats your take on ratios? I think parameters are supportive of decent deformation bands to form like the Feb 5th event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I recall it being progged by various model runs. Has a hint of Summer to it. Too bad 24 hours from now it"ll be well below freezing. Unprecedented drop LOL! Goodluck to you in LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 3-6" here in advisory text but go 2 miles east into DuPage co and it's 4-8" locally higher. One of those cases where that gradient could happen. I'm just a few miles east of you, and P&C showing 3-5 inches. Looks like all of the P&C for DuPage is showing 3-5 from what I can see. The county forecast is only place I see 4-7 tonight and up to an inch tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Still around 41°-42° here in Racine with sprinkles. Low ceilings up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 38.9 here and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.