Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models


GaWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I imagine the kicker is weaker this run?

It's actually about the same location and strength as the 18Z GFS. The northern stream is just digging a lot more on the NAM than the GFS because it's stronger.

Gotcha. Can't view models right now, thanks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You guys are great and I only know 5% of what is being talked about but I am learning. The latest NAM model seems more promising for the coastal nc folks if I am reading them right and understanding what y'all are saying. This is going to be fun to watch the closer it gets and the more info we get.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok... The NAM has a swath of 5-10 of snow from New Orleans over to Mobile & Pensacola and up through Macon/Columbus/Waynesboro/Orangeburg, SC. It also has almost a FOOT near Dothan & Enterprise, AL.

 

Ice... Not good. 0.50 to 0.75" from Destin, FL up through Albany, GA to Coastal South Carolina. Yeah... Fun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok... The NAM has a swath of 5-10 of snow from New Orleans over to Mobile & Pensacola and up through Macon/Columbus/Waynesboro/Orangeburg, SC. It also has almost a FOOT near Dothan & Enterprise, AL.

 

Ice... Not good. 0.50 to 0.75" from Destin, FL up through Albany, GA to Coastal South Carolina. Yeah... Fun.

WOW....This run does look Colder at H85 and 2M for you and I...So, I do think there would be more of snow threat at least for this run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WOW....This run does look Colder at H85 and 2M for you and I...So, I do think there would be more of snow threat at least for this run.

I'm looking on our weather computers... But... Columbus would get about 1-3", Cusseta would get 3-5" and Americus/Ellaville would get 5-10". LOLOL! Auburn? less than 0.50". Not sure my viewers are going to like that if they live north & west of Columbus.

 

PS: I'm not showing it on air, but I am showing (I did at 7P) this though I'll probably adjust it before the 11. post-1807-0-00247100-1390705446_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe this was a very good run of the NAM for many locations. Now if we can just get the GFS and EURO to trend this way. If I lived along the I-95 corridor down to across the coastal plains of GA, AL, SC, NC, etc. I would feel very good about what the models are showing.

I still believe the NAM is under doing moisture and surface precipitation in the foothills and piedmont locations. While I do believe the total precipitation will be hard pressed to make it over a quarter of an inch, ratios should/would be very high.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok... The NAM has a swath of 5-10 of snow from New Orleans over to Mobile & Pensacola and up through Macon/Columbus/Waynesboro/Orangeburg, SC. It also has almost a FOOT near Dothan & Enterprise, AL.

 

Ice... Not good. 0.50 to 0.75" from Destin, FL up through Albany, GA to Coastal South Carolina. Yeah... Fun.

 

I don't trust those NAM snow accumulation maps. They also show a couple inches in Tallahassee by 84 hours...but soundings clearly show a rain/freezing rain setup there.  Also the precip type map shows ice...so not sure if its accumulating all frozen precip or what.

 

Regardless, the NAM show a massive ice storm for the S AL/S GA and the Florida Panhandle, possibly reaching as far east as Tallahassee.  And precip is still streaming into the region at the end of the run.

 

I'm skeptical, given the climatology of Tallahassee Ice Storms (i.e. I don't know of any).  We'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't trust those NAM snow accumulation maps. They also show a couple inches in Tallahassee by 84 hours...but soundings clearly show a rain/freezing rain setup there.  Also the precip type map shows ice...so not sure if its accumulating all frozen precip or what.

 

Regardless, the NAM show a massive ice storm for the S AL/S GA and the Florida Panhandle, possibly reaching as far east as Tallahassee.  And precip is still streaming into the region at the end of the run.

 

I'm skeptical, given the climatology of Tallahassee Ice Storms (i.e. I don't know of any).  We'll see.

 

The soundings for Mobile start off as sleet and then quickly switch to snow with a deep isothermal layer right at freezing.

 

Toward Destin...it starts out as a mix of freezing rain and sleet then switches to snow by the end of the run. Almost too crazy to believe at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...