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Winter storm 12/8-9 model discussion part II


Ji

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It likes my house though my changeover is done after about .20 or so and then I'm sleet and ice. 

Wes - Looking at the average of several different runs of several different models over the last several days... I really only seeing a range of .2 to .5 qpf for the metro areas before change over... assuming .3 qpf over 6-9 hour period... with this set up... with the winds.. temp profiles, climo, etc... how well does that translate to accumulating snow?

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snowmap I have has Wes right around 3", but I don't know how well these maps do with  700mb-850mb, plus they are based on 10:1 ratios

 

Wxbell's do terrible. I use them as an easy guide for precip amounts and where the maxes appear to be. Then I defer to the temp panels to adjust for reality. 

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Wes - Looking at the average of several different runs of several different models over the last several days... I really only seeing a range of .2 to .5 qpf for the metro areas before change over... assuming .3 qpf over 6-9 hour period... with this set up... with the winds.. temp profiles, climo, etc... how well does that translate to accumulating snow?

 

the column is below freezing and there is no sun...which means snow accumulates...if it is 28 on december 9th and it is snowing it will stick...maybe not major arteries and treated roads as well...but on a snowboard/tabeles/decks/grass....yes it sticks..

 

we are in the 30s tomorrow afternoon and 20s likely by late evening...I think that will help offset any warm ground concerns

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Wunderground is 3"+ at DCA & IAD

maps skip a panel but I'm sure BWI is similar

 

WxBell is 4.6" at IAD through 60 and Reagan looks like 5. something.  Looks like the 850's go to hell about 57 hours.  Again, 10-1 ratio.

 

These are numbers for total accumulating snowfall versus snowfall depth.  Not sure there is a difference when there was no snow on the ground previously, but there seems to be judging by the numbers not matching between the two maps.

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Snow does stick around here from time to time. I think the last two winters have made folks maybe a hair too jaded. Yes, we get screwed a lot but sometimes it does snow with temps in the 20s and stick to the roads. This isn't Atlanta or late February.

 

 i think given the conditions, 0.03"/hr type steady light  snow will lay at 28-29 degrees with no sun...even if not dendrites...but showery....

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the column is below freezing and there is no sun...which means snow accumulates...if it is 28 on december 9th and it is snowing it will stick...maybe not major arteries and treated roads as well...but on a snowboard/tabeles/decks/grass....yes it sticks..

 

we are in the 30s tomorrow afternoon and 20s likely by late evening...I think that will help offset any warm ground concerns

I called Jason to talk about what to do over my zone as I could get almost nothing or an inch or two depending on where that 1st band sets up and we won't know that almost until it sets up.  We're using probabilities which may be on the low side but this early there just is a lot of bust potential if the band end up being less robust than on the models.  I want a real snowstorm for a change. 

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I called Jason to talk about what to do over my zone as I could get almost nothing or an inch or two depending on where that 1st band sets up and we won't know that almost until it sets up.  We're using probabilities which may be on the low side but this early there just is a lot of bust potential if the band end up being less robust than on the models.  I want a real snowstorm for a change. 

 

 

for your backyard?..you could always up it tomorrow afternoon

 

less than 1" - 45%

1"+ - 55%

3"+ - 15%

 

??

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If that occurs, then CWG will look pretty stupid though we have another day to get it right. 

 

here is another...it is based on 10:1 ratios...and i have no idea if it gets the 700mb - 850mb range right

 

gray is 2", blue 4"

 

post-9749-0-01157500-1386356441_thumb.pn

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Probably the biggest takeaway from the euro is the front wave is wetter and more expansive. That's a pretty big improvement from the "pinky finger" on the other 12z guidance. 

 

I've had doubts of the hp to the north stonewalling so efficiently. It's definitely an issue but there is potential for the e-w oriented band to move northward through time and even out the precip over a larger area. Takes away the pretty bullseye in that scenario but there would be more smiling faces. 

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