D-Money Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Changeover once again delayed but not denied. The 12z NAM-HIRES probably not all snow for southside HR until after 7p but even stronger on the thumping around 10pm with very cold temps so it will definitely accumulate. I would say a quick 2-3 for southside HR is looking good and the bay effect could add a bit to that early AM Wed. for those south of the bay.Yes. Not much wasted though. Start out with some sprinkles maybe light rain. Then the juice starts to swing in with cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Should be interesting here in the RIC metro. The original evolution of the system was better for us (more of a strict clipper with some Atlantic interaction) but now that is has become a true hybrid with more amplification things are trickier. I'd say we're good for 2-3" throughout central VA with localized amounts of 3-6". 850 low track is right over or just SE of downtown meaning small shifts will make a big difference. HPC likes a look closer to the Euro but who knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like 12z GFS is on board with NAM.... 2-4" for HR, with higher end on Peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 12z NAM-HIRES actually has a 4 inch band from VB back southwest to just a little north/northwest of Eliz. City. Due to that superband forecasted for around 10pm tomorrow night. GFS right around 1.5-2 so 2-4 sounds like the way to go right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The 12z NAM-HIRES actually has a 4 inch band from VB back southwest to just a little north/northwest of Eliz. City. Due to that superband forecasted for around 10pm tomorrow night. GFS right around 1.5-2 so 2-4 sounds like the way to go right now.This will be the money maker for us. Hires sim has a nice 35-40 dbz band over top us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 RPM trying to show some banding and brief periods of heavy snow over SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That RPM forecast is showing 6-7 inch totals over interior SE/S-Central VA right where the NAM-HIRES has 1-2 inch totals. Be interesting to see what shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RPM trying to show some banding and brief periods of heavy snow over SE VA RPM looks sick, but is it the favored model for area? I know it is not a global model so it makes me wonder if the RPM is seeing the same variables as the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Kinda surprised AKQ hasn't at least posted an advisory for the southside... Then again, they're so terrified of busting, they're always playing catch-up with everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And I suppose this continues to look worse and worse for us since there's no activity in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So.... Will Richmond be teasing the dry slot now.. with the wrap around coming in pretty late to help out much now? *unsure* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nam continues to show that band. If that happens we all will be pleased here in HR's. 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 yea, looks like 1-2" for HR unless we get the banding being shown by numerous models. If we land in a band, could be 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And I suppose this continues to look worse and worse for us since there's no activity in this thread? over the past few days a lot has happened/ changed. We are now looking good because of a developing wrap around band. Without that we would be looking at .5-1". With it 2-3". Maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And see, I'm unsure of what to expect here, because when people talk about the southside, they're mostly referring to the metro. I live out in the sticks west of Franklin... So I don't know if I'm considered "Hampton roads" or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And see, I'm unsure of what to expect here, because when people talk about the southside, they're mostly referring to the metro. I live out in the sticks west of Franklin... So I don't know if I'm considered "Hampton roads" or not.ok. Go to twisterdata.com Use the snowfall maps to get an idea of what to expect in your area. Very easy to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And see, I'm unsure of what to expect here, because when people talk about the southside, they're mostly referring to the metro. I live out in the sticks west of Franklin... So I don't know if I'm considered "Hampton roads" or not. I believe for statistical purposes you are Hampton Roads, but when I say HR re: weather I'm usually talking about the southside and peninsula (VB to Suffolk and up to NN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like someone in Central VA is going to get dry slotted, which is a shame with this cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z NAM-HIRES continues to improve the snow chances. Superband continues to show up right with the arctic air in NE NC up through southside HR between 7p-11p. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder or two if this thing verifies. 6+ would not be out of the question in a few spots and bay effect is still on the table Wed AM for good measure. Wakefield's going to have to make a move here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z NAM-HIRES continues to improve the snow chances. Superband continues to show up right with the arctic air in NE NC up through southside HR between 7p-11p. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder or two if this thing verifies. 6+ would not be out of the question in a few spots and bay effect is still on the table Wed AM for good measure. Wakefield's going to have to make a move here. Agreed. I, based on nothing, expect a WWA to be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Advisory most likely by 5pm. Wouldn't be surprised if a watch is issued based on the banding and bay enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Agreed with all of the above. It really pains me that the folks at AKQ are so iffy when it comes to pulling the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The latest graphical maps of the storm over at the NWS site show heavy snow over practically all of eastern VA from 7-11 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I am living in Arlington va now guys outside DC only 10 min. I am going to get crushed but I am hoping you all get hit hard too on the back end and bay enhancement. Good lucks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z NAM-HIRES continues to improve the snow chances. Superband continues to show up right with the arctic air in NE NC up through southside HR between 7p-11p. I wouldn't be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder or two if this thing verifies. 6+ would not be out of the question in a few spots and bay effect is still on the table Wed AM for good measure. Wakefield's going to have to make a move here.Warning criteria for SE VA and NE NC is 3"+ in a 12hr period? Also new gfs shows what will happen if the band does not develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like someone in Central VA is going to get dry slotted, which is a shame with this cold storm. Oh, it will be over DT's house for sure and the airport for continued measuring struggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Point and click zone forecast hast he airport around 3 to 6". Not so sure we can muster that unless ratios really help out. I think we start off at a standard 10:1.. before improving a bit to 12.. to 15:1. Doubt we'll get those 20:1 ratios in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Warning criteria for SE VA and NE NC is 3"+ in a 12hr period? Also new gfs shows what will happen if the band does not develop. You know the GFS is a low res model. NAM is handling this feature well. The question is where exactly the banding sets up. I've seen similar situations where NE NC got more than the Southside. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Still nothing from Wakefield. It's sad that this area is always the toss up when it comes to winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Still nothing from Wakefield. It's sad that this area is always the toss up when it comes to winter weather. It's going to snow more than an inch. Who cares what they think or say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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