stormtracker Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 New thread been give. Summary 0z NAM: 0z GFS: Eh, Next 0z GGEM: 0z Euro: Decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Philly and Jersey are loving the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 6z gfs is juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 6z nam is a ji and bobchill heartbreaker lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 HPC gives us a solid 10% chance for a foot or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 HPC gives us a solid 10% chance for a foot or more. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 HPC gives us a solid 10% chance for a foot or more. 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 1% Shhh, I wanted him to show us the 10% chance of a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 We are in the green! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 New thread been give. Summary 0z NAM: 0z GFS: Eh, Next 0z GGEM: 0z Euro: Decent Euro doesn't look decent to me if these temps are right. DCA Looks good. Only 33 degrees during the heaviest rates. Same story at the other 2 airports. MON 00Z 25-MAR 3.4 -2.3 1006 63 95 0.01 546 541 MON 06Z 25-MAR 1.8 -3.8 1003 79 100 0.03 541 538 MON 12Z 25-MAR 0.5 -4.3 1000 95 99 0.24 531 531 MON 18Z 25-MAR 2.8 -5.8 1000 79 100 0.09 528 528 TUE 00Z 26-MAR 1.3 -6.1 1005 94 98 0.08 531 526 It's still warm at DCA at 06Z and only drops to 33 or so by 12Z with less than .25" of precip falling during that 6 hour period. You might hold onto the snow through 15Z. Maybe a sloppy inch for DC on grass if it were right and a sloppy inch or two at best towards IAD. At least the heaviest is at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro terrible run. Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro terrible run. Dry 06Z GFS is wetter but most precip fall during the day so it falls as rain or non sticking snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I mentioned yesterday how I didn't like the Euro dewpoints. The 00z run was significantly different, with the 32F line basically staying 95 and east during the event. I will also give the NAM a little credit, yesterday the sim radar had a very comma shaped look to it during the transition from the primary to coastal low. The euro 3-hr panels on wunderground now has this exact same look. If we can get that decent band through, it may whiten the ground and have decent rates. However, we are still looking at a transfer in late March, which is a double negative to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Situation looks hopeful for the DC area. If the best 295K isen lift somehow aligns with coldest/deepest cloud layer sun eve and the marine layer does not become too saturated before 12Z mon, this could produce periods of -snsh or perhaps even -sn/ra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro has .25 falling between 6-12z monday with surface at freezing in my yard. 6z gfs has .33 falling at the same sime with slightly warmer surface @ .5 or so. This is the only real window of accum unless some miracle death band on the back of the comma comes to town. I'm not counting on that. I still like my call of 1-3 for 95 and points west. Urban centers may have trouble depending on timing and temps of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro has .25 falling between 6-12z monday with surface at freezing in my yard. 6z gfs has .33 falling at the same sime with slightly warmer surface @ .5 or so. This is the only real window of accum unless some miracle death band on the back of the comma comes to town. I'm not counting on that. I still like my call of 1-3 for 95 and points west. Urban centers may have trouble depending on timing and temps of course. I think I'll go a bit higher Bob, I think about 2-4 from just east of the BR back west, and 1-2 for areas east of the BR. Of course this is only my preliminary first guess. I'll be back later with my initial first guess, final first guess, preliminary first call, initial first call, final first call, preliminary final call, initial final call, and final final call. Hopefully there are enough model runs so that my final call comes Mon night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 LWX says March sun angle kills any chances for accumulating Sun aft. All in all another car topper. Did anyone look at 6z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12z NAM coming in. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12z NAM coming in. Let's see what happens. Looking good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think we are going to get NAM'd again based off what I see at 36. 2m 0 line is close by (near BR)... h5 looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think we are going to get NAM'd again based off what I see at 36. 2m 0 line is close by (near BR)... h5 looks decent Yup. Looks juicier so far, and freezing line is about where it was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 at 36 hrs, NAM is further south with the 5h vort than 6z was at 42 hrs, so that can't hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 39 is decent... 0.25+ QPF DCA and too the SW... freezing line parallels I-95... h5 double contoured closed in N KY -- which is south some compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 42 hrs the 5H base of the trough is along the KY/TN border, much better than 6z at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 dang, I gotta' run but I think later panels on the NAM will be much better than 6z (not saying it's ultimately right, however) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 dang, I gotta' run but I think later panels on the NAM will be much better than 6z (not saying it's ultimately right, however) I would believe so as well... h5 at 42 was also more consolidated then 6z at 48... DCA is almost at .5 QPF already at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Nam used to be solid in 24-36 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Noticeable difference between the 06z 51 hrs out and the 12z 45 hrs out (more precip and colder). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Nam used to be solid in 24-36 range NAM totally missed a 10" snowstorm in SE MA as it occurred, the other day. Had zippo for QPF. Complete garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Questsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Uh.... What's that mess of 0C lines???? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2013032312/USA_PCPPRSTMP_2m_051.gif (Edit: the link doesn't work -- this is the 51hr forecast for the 12z run of the NAM, 10m temp/wind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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