Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Might as well. Nothing to lose and its our final hurrah. One good thing about chasing models into Late March is it feels like a longer winter and when the pattern breaks, it could be mid April with only 2 months till we start losing daylite time again. Initial thoughts... Historic event coming up. 1942 type storm DCA 8 IAD 12 JYO 16 Linden 62 http://www.wjla.com/pictures/2013/03/photos-vintage-d-c-snowstorms/logan-circle-snow-in-march-1942-30067-2049.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA ...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... NATIONAL ARBORETUM 8.0 900 AM 3/26 COOP WASHINGTON 7.0 925 AM 3/26 LOGAN CIRCLE AREA DALECARLIA RESERVIOR 6.0 800 AM 3/26 COOP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 http://archives.explorecarroll.com/news/4143/dayhoff/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA... NATIONAL ARBORETUM 8.0 900 AM 3/26 COOP WASHINGTON 7.0 925 AM 3/26 LOGAN CIRCLE AREA DALECARLIA RESERVIOR 6.0 800 AM 3/26 COOP DCA 0.8 915AM 3/26 Slant stick measurer Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Might as well. Nothing to lose and its our final hurrah. One good thing about chasing models into Late March is it feels like a longer winter and when the pattern breaks, it could be mid April with only 2 months till we start losing daylite time again. Initial thoughts... Historic event coming up. 1942 type storm DCA 8 IAD 12 JYO 16 Linden 62 http://www.wjla.com/pictures/2013/03/photos-vintage-d-c-snowstorms/logan-circle-snow-in-march-1942-30067-2049.html I like the way you think. I count down the days to the summer soltice every year, and then to July 27 when the avg highs start to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 I like the way you think. I count down the days to the summer soltice every year, and then to July 27 when the avg highs start to drop. once july is done....its downhill from there. August is a great month as temps start to cool...it gets darker and NFL training camp..zwyts first winter call.The June 20-July 31 period is a disastrous 6 weeks of hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 west dc gets screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Might as well. Nothing to lose and its our final hurrah. One good thing about chasing models into Late March is it feels like a longer winter and when the pattern breaks, it could be mid April with only 2 months till we start losing daylite time again. Initial thoughts... Historic event coming up. 1942 type storm DCA 8 IAD 12 JYO 16 Linden 62 http://www.wjla.com/pictures/2013/03/photos-vintage-d-c-snowstorms/logan-circle-snow-in-march-1942-30067-2049.html Might as well. Nothing to lose and its our final hurrah. One good thing about chasing models into Late March is it feels like a longer winter and when the pattern breaks, it could be mid April with only 2 months till we start losing daylite time again. Initial thoughts... Historic event coming up. 1942 type storm DCA 8 IAD 12 JYO 16 Linden 62 http://www.wjla.com/pictures/2013/03/photos-vintage-d-c-snowstorms/logan-circle-snow-in-march-1942-30067-2049.html Where you are located and at your elevation you can probably get 32-34, 1-3" grassy type events till early april..(not saying you will)....you have like 43 of those type of events this winter...where I am I cant....the only way is a palm sunday type event which falls in like 6 hours with 1/8 mi viz...then I can get 2-4" on all surfaces but street that melts later in the day...but those are still very rare..like once every 20-25 years...today was a good example of climo...most of the close in burbs got T-1"....models dont really matter much for light events here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Where you are located and at your elevation you can probably get 32-34, 1-3" grassy type events till early april..(not saying you will)....you have like 43 of those type of events this winter...where I am I cant....the only way is a palm sunday type event which falls in like 6 hours with 1/8 mi viz...then I can get 2-4" on all surfaces but street that melts later in the day...but those are still very rare..like once every 20-25 years...today was a good example of climo...most of the close in burbs got T-1"....models dont really matter much for light events here yea..it cant be a light event. The Palm Sunday storm has to be an all out blinding snowstorm. But if it happened once...it can happen again. somehow, our area was allowed to get over a foot in 1942 on march 29-30. Nov 11....etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yea..it cant be a light event. The Palm Sunday storm has to be an all out blinding snowstorm. But if it happened once...it can happen again. somehow, our area was allowed to get over a foot in 1942 on march 29-30. Nov 11....etc. problem is palm sunday climo from then is probably more like snowquester climo now. crazy stuff can happen but everyone was excited that today would be colder than early mar and it ended up fairly similar (perhaps a touch colder but not much really). climo is a b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 once july is done....its downhill from there. August is a great month as temps start to cool...it gets darker and NFL training camp..zwyts first winter call.The June 20-July 31 period is a disastrous 6 weeks of hell Agree completely, although I'd include the first couple weeks of August in that hell period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 problem is palm sunday climo from then is probably more like snowquester climo now. crazy stuff can happen but everyone was excited that today would be colder than early mar and it ended up fairly similar (perhaps a touch colder but not much really). climo is a b. Today wasn't a temp issue. It was a precip issue. Saw a picture of a friend near gainsville that had an inch of snow on the street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Today wasn't a temp issue. It was a precip issue. Saw a picture of a friend near gainsville that had an inch of snow on the street yeah tho the timing was really good to maximize potential.. if we had more precip it would have gone to white rain most spots when the sun came up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 problem is palm sunday climo from then is probably more like snowquester climo now. crazy stuff can happen but everyone was excited that today would be colder than early mar and it ended up fairly similar (perhaps a touch colder but not much really). climo is a b. yeah...there is really no way around the need for a QPF bomb with near whiteout snow...which pretty much never happens this time of year for us...when I get a chance I might look at JYO to see how many 2"+ events they have after March 20...I am guessing every 5 years or so, but that is a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Today wasn't a temp issue. It was a precip issue. Saw a picture of a friend near gainsville that had an inch of snow on the street There was a fair amount of snow on the cars/trucks in DC that came from VA...I am guessing probably points west and SW not too close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I like the way you think. I count down the days to the summer soltice every year, and then to July 27 when the avg highs start to drop. You sound like Gollum - living under the earth where it's dark and cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 You sound like Gollum - living under the earth where it's dark and cool. lol. i'd prefer that, at least during summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 yeah...there is really no way around the need for a QPF bomb with near whiteout snow...which pretty much never happens this time of year for us...when I get a chance I might look at JYO to see how many 2"+ events they have after March 20...I am guessing every 5 years or so, but that is a guess DCA has one 2"+ event Mar 25 or later (3/30/64). 3/24/90 is the biggest recently in that general timeframe. I guess we're due. 19 on record post Mar 20, but 16 happened pre DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 DCA has one 2"+ event Mar 25 or later (3/30/64). 3/24/90 is the biggest recently in that general timeframe. I guess we're due. 19 on record post Mar 20, but 16 happened pre DCA. yeah...we're screwed...I looked at western loudoun/northern Moco....not sure how much data is missing (maybe 1-2 events I am guessing)...but seems like 2"+ are every 4-5 years since 1980...most of these are western loudoun if they were available...didnt include the several 3/15-3/19 4/9/82 - 2" 3/29/84 - 4" 3/23-24/90 - 7" 4/7/90 - 2" 3/23/94 - 3" 3/26/94 - 4" 3/31/97 - 2" 4/9/00 - 2" 3/31/03 - 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Add the 12z gfs to the weenie run tally. Big improvement early @ h5. Bowling ball on a much better track and has no way to cut nw. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 12z GFS is going to be epic. ULL in great spot, secondary taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 700mb VVs are off the charts @ 159. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Temps are obviously an issue, however looks like heavy stuff falls overnight and temps look colder at the surface than the "epic bust" we had a few weeks ago had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 this is at 156. it's no surprise that it takes an optimal track. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 GFS looks great, surface freezing line cutting DC metro at 165. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 zwyts will be happy that the surface freezing line runs pretty much along 95 @ 165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Flying a little close to the sun with that northern edge, SFC temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 No worries about precip on this run!...not sure about temps but I'll take the over on Ji's Linden call for now. I know it will not work out this way, but beautiful to view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 zwyts will be happy that the surface freezing line runs pretty much along 95 @ 165 The GFS is insane...too bad it has no skill at that range or even close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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