2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[Ian]

What's their threat level for this storm?.

85% chance of yawning at the gusty rain

[weatherwiz]

85% chance of yawning at the gusty rain

 

I think that's exciting for late January!

 

Just gives us a taste for the spring/summer.  It is almost May!

[ravensrule]

85% chance of yawning at the gusty rain

 

You will be begging to use my generator by tonight.

[yoda]

PBZ says severe storms now in one of their new warnings... guess the lightning picked up enough

[yoda]

Updated LWX morning AFD -- also issued an SWS for the threats this afternoon and evening

 

LOOKING AT RADAR...LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION WAS ALREADY MAKINGIT INTO WEDNESDAY AT 14Z. THIS IS FASTER THAN MOST MODELGUIDANCE...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO REFLECT A FASTER EASTWARDPROGRESSION...BUT THE THINKING IS THAT THIS LINE MAY WEAKEN ANDALSO SLOW DOWN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...PERHAPS RE-GENERATING THISAFTERNOON/EVENING. SO MAIN IMPACT OF A QLCS STILL LOOKS TO BE MORETOWARD LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS THE WASHINGTON-BALTIMOREMETRO AREA. OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THEBEST HANDLE.THERE/S VIRTUALLY NO LIGHTNING/THUNDER WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND ITSSHALLOW BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN TAPPING INTO STRONG WINDS ALOFT.THESE STRONG WINDS WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE CWA...PROMOTING STRONGSHEAR. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE WEAK...AND WE WILL BE CONDUCTINGA SPECIAL 18Z RELEASE TO AID IN GAUGING INSTABILITY. BUT EVEN WITHLITTLE INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS COULD LEAD TO SOME DAMAGING WINDGUSTS AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

[Ian]

Never thought comparing whats going on west of the apps is very useful here. Would still favor elevation up in this area (NVA/MD). Would not expect more than a few reports tho there are a lot of spotters these days.

[Kmlwx]

Some of the local models and the pesky HRRR seem pretty set on killing off the line coming east right now and kind of bringing another line or forming another line for us. 

[weatherwiz]

The line does appear to be moving out a quite a bit ahead of the stronger forcing/dynamics aloft which would really start to weaken the line as it continues moving east.  

[Kmlwx]

The line does appear to be moving out a quite a bit ahead of the stronger forcing/dynamics aloft which would really start to weaken the line as it continues moving east.  

 

Severe fail. Check back in May!

[yoda]

Apparently, there is damage being done with these severe showers in SW PA.. Fayette County reports widespread wind damage per PBZ's SWS.. and widespread damaging winds in excess of 60mph Westmoreland County

[weatherwiz]

Severe fail. Check back in May!

 

I'm interested to see what the line will do a bit further east where temps are into the upper 60's and lower 70's.  Lack of any sun has lead to weaker llvl lapse rates but the llvls are warm and moist so mixing here may be a bit better which could allow for an increased likelihood of stronger winds being transported to the surface right on the leading edge of the line. 

[WVclimo]

Temp here has climbed from 38 to 48, but still with a NE wind and a peak gust of 8 mph, I expect my area to do a number on that squall line as it marches east.

[yoda]

A magical 30 wind threat appears from DC south!

 

[Ian]

^ bust

[MN Transplant]

The HRRR has been pretty consistent in washing out the northern part of the line, and then falling in with the other models that send the frontal line through around or after midnight.

 

edit - and I see kml beat me to it

[yoda]

CTP needs to figure out if its severe showers or severe storms... its making me confused when they jump back and forth between them in their STW's... 69 mph wind gust reported in the line

 

 

A WIND GUST TO 69 MPH...PEA SIZED HAIL AND DOWNED TREES WERE   REPORTED ON CHICKORY SUMMIT BY ACCUWEATHER EMPLOYEES AT 1124 AM.   THIS LINE HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT   SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.  

[SeminoleSullivan]

While wind may show itself a few times with this system, and could well reach advisory level in terms of gusts and we'll get some much needed rain to boot. I think the real story here is the huge swings in temps, and the wild ride that we've been given for the last week. A thunderclap may be possible, provided convection can get going again once the topology allows the system to flow freely - but all in all, I think LWX is handling this system with a justifiably cool hand. 

[yoda]

12 PM -- 63/55 at DCA S 20.... at IAD 68/59 S 21

[Disc]

I'm 68/62 currently with a strong SW to SE wind. The line doesn't looks like it's making much progress in my direction.

[Kmlwx]

Out of our area but Adairsville, GA looks like it got slammed. Tragic. 

[clueless]

I hope this isn't a fail. That just would suck.

[yoda]

Out of our area but Adairsville, GA looks like it got slammed. Tragic. 

 

Looks like I-75 was hit too

[Kmlwx]

Looks like I-75 was hit too

 

The guy on WSB down there right now just made a really dumb comment about correlation coefficient lol. wxmeddler would be cringing. 

[Ellinwood]

A friendly reminder of what it takes to verify severe weather probabilities...

 

Wind:

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/probinfo.html

[Eskimo Joe]

Not in our region, but it sounds like Adairsville, GA got whacked pretty heard from a tornado.  OEM reporting widespread damage:

 

Video:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?hl=en&client=mv-google&gl=US&v=JkdV53nOXG8&nomobile=1

 

Live Audio:  http://www.radioreference.com/apps/audio/?action=wp&feedId=7057

[Ian]

So everyone still like a midnight passage?

 

lol

 

no way.. into western zones by 3ish?

[Ellinwood]

So everyone still like a midnight passage?

 

lol

 

no way.. into western zones by 3ish?

 

I'm thinking the difference is whether or not that initial line holds together or if it diminishes and a new one forms further back. This first one has been holding together much better than what the models showed earlier though, so we'll see what happens.

[Ian]

I'm thinking the difference is whether or not that initial line holds together or if it diminishes and a new one forms further back. This first one has been holding together much better than what the models showed earlier though, so we'll see what happens.

 

hpc analyzed the front in central wv at 15z so that's probably still the front. don't see why it would slow down a lot.

[H2O]

getting some stuff for that line showing up early

[Kmlwx]

A few little "kinks" in the line coming east. One ENE of Petersburg and snother W of Bath, WV.