usedtobe Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/will_sunday_storm_produce_any.html#more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 wes, good piece as usual. i think the steady hand is the way to go here.. it seems our "outs" are minimal att this point. i would take a dusting and run the way things have been so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 wes, good piece as usual. i think the steady hand is the way to go here.. it seems our "outs" are minimal att this point. i would take a dusting and run the way things have been so far... As I mentioned elsewhere I think I mentioned that the GSF might give us temps in the 30s one sunday but I think the maxes will probably get into the 40s so we need a big temp drop to see snow. The GFS and NAM do produce big drops but how quickly relative to the shut off of precip is still up in the air. As you noted, the 18Z gfs really has the surface temps warmer than you'd like to get snow even though the 850 temps drop enough for snow prior to the shut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Great discussion, very professional write-up as usual! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Great discussion, very professional write-up as usual! I think the snow at the back end idea is fading as the boundary layer temps look like they will be too warm. To me, this looks like it will be a big euro win. On another note today's cpc D+11 ensemble mean spit out only one analog that produced over an inch (barely) at DC inside of 5 days of the centered mean. It had too other days 9 days from the mean. That's meager pickings that suggests the pacific is liable to continue screwing up a nice negative ao/NAo pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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