WVclimo Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Jesus... That would cause some major flooding. HPC had a couple QPF forecasts in a row yesterday with a Greencastle bullseye from Lee. I posted one early in this thread. Looks like you are off to a good start. Caught the tail of that line here. Great light show up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 HPC had a couple QPF forecasts in a row yesterday with a Greencastle bullseye from Lee. I posted one early in this thread. Looks like you are off to a good start. Caught the tail of that line here. Great light show up your way. Aren't there storms heading your way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Aren't there storms heading your way? I've had thunder and lightning around since before dark. Only a couple of showers so far, as I've been right on the eastern edge. Looks to be slowly advancing east though. Expecting thundershowers the rest of the night by the look of radar. LWX really bumped up POPs here with their evening update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Looks like Gettysburg is getting crushed. I have been seeing distant lightning for a couple of hours. Still hope for a rogue storm overnight me thinks. Very humid, high dew points, like during Irene out there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Looks like Gettysburg is getting crushed. I have been seeing distant lightning for a couple of hours. Still hope for a rogue storm overnight me thinks. Very humid, high dew points, like during Irene out there now. Gonna be some thunder in the hills this week. 00Z NAM just joined in with the last run of the GFS. Big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Gonna be some thunder in the hills this week. 00Z NAM just joined in with the last run of the GFS. Big totals. Ahh, memories of old screen names. I don't know why I chose Sparky, except it is easy to remember. As you know it is not my real name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Northern VA Klingon Anti Rain Shield is operational - Look at how south central PA is getting LEVELED by thunderstorms while we sit high, dry, AND clear of clouds Dale City will see a few showers this week - but South Central PA is da Bomb for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 How many miles has the center of Lee moved in the last 18 hours? Center of circ is just hangin out. Wet week comin up. No complaints though. I'd rather be soggy and relatively cool than what July brought to the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 6z GFS is crazy for central PA...17"! 4-6" for us. I declined going to the MD/Miami game tonight...think I made the right decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Central pa will be a mess w that much rain. Just hoping that it all clears out and doesn't affect the psu-bama game next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Central PA is the sweet spot with this event I expect a few showers in Woodbridge, perhaps an inch of rain overall through about Saturday, then drying. I would not want to be in Pennsylvania on a river plain. Pennsylvania = Vermont by this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I wouldn't limit the flooding and extreme rainfall threat to only PA. It looks to me like western NC, wrn VA and eastern WV into PA all have threats for extreme rainfall. Exactly where it fall this far out is always a question. The interaction of the system with a front will put a max intially on the west and northwest side of the storm. The easterly flow into the mountains complicates thing and argues there also may be a max along the east slopes of the mountains especially as the system gets far enough north and east to give a deep erly component to the winds on the north side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Central pa will be a mess w that much rain. Just hoping that it all clears out and doesn't affect the psu-bama game next Saturday. Probably won't affect the game, but it'll make parking a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I will echo usedtobe's sentiments regarding the expansive area at risk for excessive rainfall amounts. Couple that with the fact that some areas in Western Virginia and West Virginia have already seen several inches of rain from storms last night and you have a formula for disaster in some communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 12z GFS total precip drops 5 to 10 inches of rain west of the Blue Ridge through 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I don't know what the policy in Johnstown PA is these days when 12" of rain is forecasted. do they eveacuate the entire town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 I have a new theory. The eastward progression of the rain shield is so slow, that I think it may slip NE. I think that northern VA may get a couple inches of rain at most - clouds all week - and mainly some drizzle - but that New England is in for another 8 to 14 inches of rain from this system The eastward progression is very slow - and that may be its saving grace for us in DCA and N VA. Most of the moisture will slide northeastward before it ever gets to us. I would not want to be in the northeast right now. Vermonters are desperate people - and this impending flood is going to push them right over the edge. NWS should scale back forecast amts for N VA and DCA, to 1-2 inches with occasional showers through about Tue afternoon, then mostly cloudy skies with drizzle. If you live in the northeast - Get out NOW - You all need Evan Almighty to build you an ark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 My ark is still standing after Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Tornado Watch for south-central VA including Roanoke, Lynchburg: http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0844.html Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (50%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Low (20%) Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (30%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Low (10%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Impressive - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Interesting that torn watch is mostly in an unoutlooked area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 This is a weather system to watch. Just wow at all the watches. Somebody is gonna get pwned by a LOT of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Interesting that torn watch is mostly in an unoutlooked area. Seems like a low prob - relatively small coverage area. The mesoscale disco that came before it seemed to indicate a trend downwards in threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Impressive - From the p.m. LWX discussion: .HYDROLOGY... RFC HAS PROVIDED US W/ FCST RVR STAGES FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. IT IS..OF COURSE...DIFFICULT TO FCST RVR STAGES DAYS IN ADVNC WHEN ONLY THE 1ST DROPS HV BEGUN TO FALL. BUT USING A FCST OF 5-8.5" OVR THE NEXT 72 HRS PRODUCES THESE NUMBERS: PTMC RVR MAJOR STAGE FCST PAW PAW 32` 39.7` THU MRNG HANCOCK 35` 37` THU AFTN WILLIAMSPORT 28` 34-36` THU PT OF ROCKS 25` 25` THU SHENANDOAH RVR MDT STAGE MILLVILLE 15` 14` THU THESE WL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHED/UPDATED SVRL TIMES IN THE COMING DAYS. ALL W/ INTERESTS ON THESE RVRS SHOULD BEGUN TAKING PRECAUTIONS. Paw Paw at 39.7 ft is a problem. At 40 ft.: THE RIGHT BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS EXTENSIVE SECTIONS OF THE TOWN OF PAW PAW... NORTH OF THE B&O RAILROAD. Hancock at 37 ft. would also be bad: At 35 ft. water inundates 20 to 30 homes and 5 or more businesses in the west end of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Seems like a low prob - relatively small coverage area. The mesoscale disco that came before it seemed to indicate a trend downwards in threat. It's just quite a bit out ahead of lee vorticity. I guess the other max in the northern stream near the lakes must have aided it. Wed seems like it could be potentially interesting but I guess something is off -- haven't paid much attention last few days while gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 My ark is still standing after Irene lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 From the p.m. LWX discussion: .HYDROLOGY... RFC HAS PROVIDED US W/ FCST RVR STAGES FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS. IT IS..OF COURSE...DIFFICULT TO FCST RVR STAGES DAYS IN ADVNC WHEN ONLY THE 1ST DROPS HV BEGUN TO FALL. BUT USING A FCST OF 5-8.5" OVR THE NEXT 72 HRS PRODUCES THESE NUMBERS: PTMC RVR MAJOR STAGE FCST PAW PAW 32` 39.7` THU MRNG HANCOCK 35` 37` THU AFTN WILLIAMSPORT 28` 34-36` THU PT OF ROCKS 25` 25` THU SHENANDOAH RVR MDT STAGE MILLVILLE 15` 14` THU THESE WL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHED/UPDATED SVRL TIMES IN THE COMING DAYS. ALL W/ INTERESTS ON THESE RVRS SHOULD BEGUN TAKING PRECAUTIONS. Paw Paw at 39.7 ft is a problem. At 40 ft.: THE RIGHT BANK OF THE RIVER FLOODS EXTENSIVE SECTIONS OF THE TOWN OF PAW PAW... NORTH OF THE B&O RAILROAD. Hancock at 37 ft. would also be bad: At 35 ft. water inundates 20 to 30 homes and 5 or more businesses in the west end of town. Shenandoah River at Charles Town Rd - What would a 14 foot flood stage do to that bridge? Would the bridge be shut down? I have some friends up there right now that are probably not going to be able to get over the mountains there because of extremely low cloud bases, producing very foggy conditions on Route 9. How much water would there be on John Rissler Rd, for example? I've been there, personally jebwalked on that road in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I am fairly certain that DC and N VA (where I live, that is) should not have excessive rains from this, likely 1-2 inches tops. However - the mountains are going to get dumped on. This is no time to be traveling into or thru the western Virginia or the West Virginian mountains/foothills. Rising rivers and creeks as well as lowering ceilings are a concern in those regions through Tuesday night, possibly Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 These brief heavy showers are fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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