Stebo Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It doesn't hurt to speculate hmm? Impossible to know anyways, because the GFS truncates after 192 hours. This, I wouldn't dwell on any major detail past the truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 On water vapor and microwave TPW, it's easy to see the dry air ahead of it now holding it down but the moist air around 55 W. The vorticity is really winding up. Whatever happens with the track, it certainly looks good for development--but not for another 2-3 days imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Why would even ask that question 10 days out. There are a dozens of things that have to happen before your question is even relevant. I speculated simply because the point of a 'cane is to distribute heat polward, and if the GFS is mis-diagnosing convective feedback knowing it iws a northern outlier it might make some sense. Maybe it pulls a Hazel.\ Yes there is no specific reason to speculate other than the act of speculating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The system mentioned has just been lemoned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The system mentioned has just been lemoned And I predict that now the HWRF will, at some point, put out some CAT 5 monster..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Just my luck I have a cruise out of Miami Monday basically right into the belly of the beast. Then if Mr GFS actually verified it would follow me back home! Cane cruise, you should sell your tickets to Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Let's petition NCEP to stop running the GFS past 120 hours and live happily ever after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 And I predict that now the HWRF will, at some point, put out some CAT 5 monster..... I have $100 that someone will mention a Camille redux at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Let's petition NCEP to stop running the GFS past 120 hours and live happily ever after. what would we be talking about then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 what would we be talking about then? Nothing. We'll just wait and let the crickets chirp until we get a full blown cyclone inside 120 hours, that way we don't bog the board down with extraneous talk about weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 So, does something being designated as a "lemon" not automatically mean that it is an invest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I forgot that it was a crime here to ask a question looking for legitimate feedback. Sunny and warm? Heh. Irony at it's best. I completely remember why I never made an account here. Probably should just go back to lurking. There's a lot of cockiness on this forum (and in meteorology in general), but don't feel like you can't ask questions. The core tropical dudes are good guys and will usually help you out, and not everyone here is an asshat...perhaps as much as 70% of the forum isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 So, does something being designated as a "lemon" not automatically mean that it is an invest? not nessesarily, but it means they think there may be a chance down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 So, does something being designated as a "lemon" not automatically mean that it is an invest? No, NHC subjectively determines when they want to devote NCEP resources to a developing system (which is what an Invest designation actually does). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 There's a lot of cockiness on this forum (and in meteorology in general), but don't feel like you can't ask questions. The core tropical dudes are good guys and will usually help you out, and not everyone here is an asshat...perhaps as much as 70% of the forum isn't. It's a problem in all of science-- well, people in general. I often think the "cockiness" / ego problem is actually a mask people use to convince themselves they know more than they actually do. It's best to operate under the idea that the more you know, the more you realize you have to learn. It's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 There's a lot of cockiness on this forum (and in meteorology in general), but don't feel like you can't ask questions. The core tropical dudes are good guys and will usually help you out, and not everyone here is an asshat...perhaps as much as 70% of the forum isn't. Yeah, I've noticed... but a select group of people here certainly feel entitled about SOMETHING (I have yet to discover what it is, and I've been reading this forum for years now) that makes them seem to think they have the ability to treat people who are asking legitimate questions like trash. It's absolutely ridiculous and ignorant. But thank you, you're right. There are many people here who are not like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 No, NHC subjectively determines when they want to devote NCEP resources to a developing system (which is what an Invest designation actually does). Thanks. I just figured since they had tentatively scheduled a flight and then gave it a lemon that it would be an invest. Certainly does seem very subjective when my daughter could fart something better than some of the systems they have "invested" and this one isn't yet. Confusing, I guess. I think there should be a more uniform manner in which they "invest" things, do you not think so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I think there should be a more uniform manner in which they "invest" things, do you not think so? Nope. There are lots of decisions involved in making something an invest, more than just meteorology (for example, they're already running extra models on 93L, Fernanda, and Greg - perhaps they don't want to use up another slot on the supercomputer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Nope. There are lots of decisions involved in making something an invest, more than just meteorology (for example, they're already running extra models on 93L, Fernanda, and Greg - perhaps they don't want to use up another slot on the supercomputer). Oh, understandable. So, sometimes, it is a question of whether or not there is enough resources available? That's interesting... what if there were 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic at once and 2 in the Pacific at once... would they simply have to deal with assigning "slots" on the super computer? If you were working at NHS would you not "invest" this? I certainly would. Especially because I do see some sort of circulation, even if it may be weak and broad. Or maybe my eyes are playing tricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Oh, understandable. So, sometimes, it is a question of whether or not there is enough resources available? That's interesting... what if there were 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic at once and 2 in the Pacific at once... would they simply have to deal with assigning "slots" on the super computer? If you were working at NHS would you not "invest" this? I certainly would. Especially because I do see some sort of circulation, even if it may be weak and broad. Or maybe my eyes are playing tricks. They have five slots total, but there are other things that can be run if NHC doesn't use their allotment. And that's only one possibility. This thing isn't going to develop for at least 3 days, and maybe as much as 5, so there is not a whole lot of need for GFDL/HWRF to be run on them at this time. Certainly, if the exact same system was sitting in the Bahamas, it would be an invest right now, but since it is out in the middle of the Atlantic, there is no urgency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Decent wave leaving Africa... ...but nothing like 2010... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Oh, understandable. So, sometimes, it is a question of whether or not there is enough resources available? That's interesting... what if there were 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic at once and 2 in the Pacific at once... would they simply have to deal with assigning "slots" on the super computer? If you were working at NHS would you not "invest" this? I certainly would. Especially because I do see some sort of circulation, even if it may be weak and broad. Or maybe my eyes are playing tricks. I don't know for sure, but I suspect that there are many factors other than the current state of the area of interest... All else being equal, I'm sure model output, proximity to potential impacted land, and of course individual forecasters' perception of the system (ie depends who's on shift) play a role in an invest determination. As for asking questions, and cocky folk on the board...tis the nature of a public forum, no matter the content...Just stick with me....and you won't fail....I know a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Oh, understandable. So, sometimes, it is a question of whether or not there is enough resources available? That's interesting... what if there were 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic at once and 2 in the Pacific at once... would they simply have to deal with assigning "slots" on the super computer? If you were working at NHS would you not "invest" this? I certainly would. Especially because I do see some sort of circulation, even if it may be weak and broad. Or maybe my eyes are playing tricks. The benefits of an invest include a centralized place to get microwave imagery and the ability to run computer models. Some have speculated that if those things aren't needed, then why start an invest? Regarding this system, it is very easy to track wo microwave, it isn't close to becoming a tropical cyclone and it is far out to sea. I imagine the invest will be opened tomorrow-- usually in the 20-30 range i have noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I don't know for sure, but I suspect that there are many factors other than the current state of the area of interest... All else being equal, I'm sure model output, proximity to potential impacted land, and of course individual forecasters' perception of the system (ie depends who's on shift) play a role in an invest determination. As for asking questions, and cocky folk on the board...tis the nature of a public forum, no matter the content...Just stick with me....and you won't fail....I know a lot! I appreciate it. Thank you for answering my questions. It just seems as though people ask questions and SOME jump down their throat for it in a very mean manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Decent wave leaving Africa... ...but nothing like 2010... And a whole lot of good those decent waves did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 And a whole lot of good those decent waves did I love your expertise you should post more often :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I love your expertise you should post more often :arrowhead: Yes! And this was MUCH more beneficiary to the thread as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I love your expertise you should post more often :arrowhead: Do you think your MET tag gives you VIP access? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Do you think your MET tag gives you VIP access? Sorry it just is a bit annoying to see the same thing over and over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Sorry it just is a bit annoying to see the same thing over and over... I think the point was less developed waves tend to have a better shot at traversing farther west in the atlantic basin, also dictated by atmospheric composure. So "nothing compared to 2010" was a stupid comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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