Ian Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This. I am not trying to downplay the threat, or disregard what the GFS is doing. I just would like to wait until the TC forms before we start pinning down strength and landfall points and the such you'd have to be a serious weenie to be doing the later at this pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This. I am not trying to downplay the threat, or disregard what the GFS is doing. I just would like to wait until the TC forms before we start pinning down strength and landfall points and the such It's not like this is the official NHC online discussion headquarters where the public depends on our accurate analyses and forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It's not like this is the official NHC online discussion headquarters where the public depends on our accurate analyses and forecasts. Geez, didn't realize I was going to be railed against so much Anywho, whatever I'm out to get things done. Enjoy the 10 day GFS pron Josh. You shall have your chase soon I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 you'd have to be a serious weenie to be doing the later at this pt My target zone is Texas to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Whoever starts the invest thread for this should get a special tag, it's coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 My target zone is Texas to Maine mine's pretty much the chesapeake bay.. i can understand your sentiment. just y-day a noob was told not to post the fantasy gfs. given the look for some time now tho it's hard to dismiss... but it could still be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 mine's pretty much the chesapeake bay.. i can understand your sentiment. just y-day a noob was told not to post the fantasy gfs. given the look for some time now tho it's hard to dismiss... but it could still be way off. Yeah, that's true Met Tech and Josh, look. I apologize if it seems like I am stifling disco, that is def not my intention at all. I would just like to have the TC form first. That's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 you'd have to be a serious weenie to be doing the later at this pt Agreed. Unless I am missing something, nobody has implied that there is some sort of massive threat of a tropical cyclone hit in a particular area based on the GFS. The GFS is showing a significant tropical system which it has approaching the US in about 8 days, and it's been showing it consistently for many runs. That is a fact, and it is an interesting fact with some implications which are worth discussing. I haven't seen anybody read into it any more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It gets pretty damn annoying when people think you should stifle discussion over a weather system on a weather forum. I always thought these threads of yours were umbrella topics to discuss anything tropical, even if it's banter over the 10-day GFS. I don't see how this is hurting anyone. Thank you for saying what I'm sure many of us quietly think while reading here. Not everything is going to please everyone. Why can't people just keep their yaps shut and pass over posts that don't meet their personal standards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Yeah, that's true Met Tech and Josh, look. I apologize if it seems like I am stifling disco, I would just like to have the TC form first. That's all On the flip side, I hope it doesn't become a pattern that those who point out the GFS' flaws, etc. are railed against for stifling discussion. There needs to be those who are hesitant in jumping on these bandwagons pointing out why they arent doing so balancing out those who are on the bandwagon. Anywho, the 12z Euro is coming up soon... Let's see if it is consistent with the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Yeah, that's true Met Tech and Josh, look. I apologize if it seems like I am stifling disco, that is def not my intention at all. I would just like to have the TC form first. That's all No need to apologize to me. I just feel that Josh's threads are made to hold general tropical discussions, and that talking about a pattern of long-range model hits isn't harmful when doing it in here. If people are starting threads specifically to point out a 950 hour GFS panel, they should be tossed in the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 My target zone is Texas to Maine Texas is safe from all except random development from non-tropical sources through the end of this month. Maybe there will be a pattern change that opens Texas up the first three weeks of September before the window starts closing (October hits have happened, but rather rare), so I can't say "Season Cancel", but everything I see if the last few GFS and Euro ensembles- Eastern Gulf to Hatteras (or near miss fish) next 10 to 14 days. Yes, I know I'm responding seriously to a joke. I will not declare season cancel for Texas before September. I did that once the last week of August when the Westerlies had reached Texas prematurely, we'd had several decent frontal passages, and all the reliable models showed 10 to 16 days of Westerlies, and a freak storm got through. Few people remember that, but it taught me a lesson to wait until early September to issue "season cancel" pronouncements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 DT says the last runs 14 in a row. DT said on Facebook (so this is free/quotable here): "12Z Wed run of the GFS ... after showing Gulf Hurricane for last 14 runs... moves STRONGLY to the Euro solution of East Coast Hurricane AUG 27-30." He's incorrect about the 14 Gulf runs in a row. The prior run (6Z) wasn't even Gulf as it hit S FL and then went up the peninsula. The run prior to that (0Z) was Gulf. The U.S. Gulf hits were from these runs: 12Z Mon; 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z of Tue; 0Z Wed. So, five of last ten runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 On the flip side, I hope it doesn't become a pattern that those who point out the GFS' flaws, etc. are railed against for stifling discussion. There needs to be those who are hesitant in jumping on these bandwagons pointing out why they arent doing so balancing out those who are on the bandwagon. Anywho, the 12z Euro is coming up soon... Let's see if it is consistent with the 00z run. I don't see anyone jumping on their horse and running down to the beach to warn people a hurric'n is a comin'. The discussion is harmless. I don't think anyone needs to point out the GFS flaws in the long-range to a bunch of experienced tropical posters in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 NHC has scheduled a possible invest recon at 15N, 56W on day 3. Probably see an initial area delineated on the TWO soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Yes, we are desperate for anything at this point, and the past 10 runs of the GFS has given us our biggest hope in nearly 3 years of something happening. I think its ridiculous for people to shoot it down like that. Let us have our fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 DT said on Facebook (so this is free/quotable here): "12Z Wed run of the GFS ... after showing Gulf Hurricane for last 14 runs... moves STRONGLY to the Euro solution of East Coast Hurricane AUG 27-30." He's incorrect about the 14 Gulf runs in a row. The prior run (6Z) wasn't even Gulf as it hit S FL and then went up the peninsula. The run prior to that (0Z) was Gulf. The U.S. Gulf hits were from these runs: 12Z Mon; 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z of Tue; 0Z Wed. So, five of last ten runs. DT is known to make stuff up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 DT said on Facebook (so this is free/quotable here): "12Z Wed run of the GFS ... after showing Gulf Hurricane for last 14 runs... moves STRONGLY to the Euro solution of East Coast Hurricane AUG 27-30." He's incorrect about the 14 Gulf runs in a row. The prior run (6Z) wasn't even Gulf as it hit S FL and then went up the peninsula. The run prior to that (0Z) was Gulf. The U.S. Gulf hits were from these runs: 12Z Mon; 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z of Tue; 0Z Wed. So, five of last ten runs. Yea, I agree, he is wrong there. I think out of the 11 now that I have seen, 5 were GOM hits and the rest were East Coast hits with one that skirted OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Yes, we are desperate for anything at this point, and the past 10 runs of the GFS has given us our biggest hope in nearly 3 years of something happening. I think its ridiculous for people to shoot it down like that. Let us have our fun. Well I certainly don't "hope" someone loses their home. The discussion has been good...I don't see the harm in talking about a potential storm that two reliable global models have. Obviously we know some factors are against it too. The points that Phil, Adam, Brian et al brought up late last night and this morning, have been great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 And this doesn't even consider the runs before Monday that were showing a storm hitting the East coast around Maine. While it lost that, I do find it interesting that the time frame was around the 22nd of August and now its back for around the 25th-27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 I had to duck out for a conference call. I'm back and I see we've worked through that little conflict and we're all on the same page. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I had to duck out for a conference call. I'm back and I see we've worked through that little conflict and we're all on the same page. Cool. Yup. DT settled it for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 And this doesn't even consider the runs before Monday that were showing a storm hitting the East coast around Maine. While it lost that, I do find it interesting that the time frame was around the 22nd of August and now its back for around the 25th-27th. Might those 8/22ish hits have been from Invest 93L or some other invest? That would be too quick for the wave that has generated all of the most recent GFS hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Yup. DT settled it for us. He's always been great at peace negotiations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 no wood here This thread is off to a good start... are ya sure? and nice post about the GFS, by the way.. that's a page back now, i was just too lazy to hit "multiquote" again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Might those 8/22ish hits have been from Invest 93L or some other invest? That would be too quick for the wave that has generated all of the most recent GFS hits. Could have been, good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 DT said on Facebook (so this is free/quotable here): "12Z Wed run of the GFS ... after showing Gulf Hurricane for last 14 runs... moves STRONGLY to the Euro solution of East Coast Hurricane AUG 27-30." He's incorrect about the 14 Gulf runs in a row. The prior run (6Z) wasn't even Gulf as it hit S FL and then went up the peninsula. The run prior to that (0Z) was Gulf. The U.S. Gulf hits were from these runs: 12Z Mon; 0Z, 6Z, and 12Z of Tue; 0Z Wed. So, five of last ten runs. If my math is correct, this is Monday 06z's run. Wilmington, Gulf Coast, what's the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The irony of all of this robust discussion of the GFS vs. the Euro is that the Euro was the first of the two models to show a hurricane in the western part of the basin from the wave being discussed. The 0Z Sun Euro run had it get to ~22N, 67W. Prior to that, it was 93L being developed by many of the models. Here it is at ~992 mb's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 If my math is correct, this is Monday 06z's run. Wilmington, Gulf Coast, what's the difference. Alas, it's the 30th .... Monday week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 If my math is correct, this is Monday 06z's run. Wilmington, Gulf Coast, what's the difference. Yep, DT is off just a little bit lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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