HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 The SHIPS brings it up to a 'cane, with the DSHIPS showing weakening around Day 4 due to land interaction, probably: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Tell us more... Barring any deep penetrating LF over C. America or the Yucatan, we should have: A.) An improving environment wrt shear in about 5 days (after trough lifts out) B.) A less than ideal moisture envelope to the N and NW of the system (for awhile), but C.) Prime SST's. Couple the above factors with the climotological favoring of W. Car. systems in late Oct, and that the Euro has become increasingly bullish (along with the aforementioned, favorable global indices) I expect we will have a TC (of average size) threatening the W. coast of FL in 5 days. Intensity, of course is a crap shoot...but W. Car. systems always provide a bit more of a rise in potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 The SHIPS brings it up to a 'cane, with the DSHIPS showing weakening around Day 4 due to land interaction, probably: SHIPS is using the BAMM track, which is over land and very far to the south. Most of the GFS EnKF and ECMWF ensembles now have this pulling northward over the next few days and into the open waters of the NW Caribbean, so the SHIPS is pretty much useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Barring any deep penetrating LF over C. America or the Yucatan, we should have: A.) An improving environment wrt shear in about 5 days (after trough lifts out) B.) A less than ideal moisture envelope to the N and NW of the system (for awhile), but C.) Prime SST's. Couple the above factors with the climotological favoring of W. Car. systems in late Oct, and that the Euro has become increasingly bullish (along with the aforementioned, favorable global indices) I expect we will have a TC (of average size) threatening the W. coast of FL in 5 days. Intensity, of course is a crap shoot...but W. Car. systems always provide a bit more of a rise in potential. Sounds very interesting thanks for the imput as always . will be watching closely for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 RECON has been tasked to fly down and take a look see...the N drift expected looks interesting as well... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1030 AM EDT FRI 21 OCTOBER 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-143 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN) FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70-- A. 22/2000Z B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST C. 22/1530Z D. 13.5N 80.0W E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX SYSTEM AT 23/1800Z NEAR 14.5N 80.5W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Looks like an interesting system. The possible track could still be anywhere from western FL to goign across Cuba and missing Fl completely depending on the trough to the north and how much it lifts out or leaves behind an upper low over the gulf to help steer the system farther n than east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE WEEKEND. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Looks like we could get an INVEST for the system off Guyana soon - pretty remarkable (for the Atlantic) to get one at 7-8N that far West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 SHIPS is using the BAMM track, which is over land and very far to the south. Most of the GFS EnKF and ECMWF ensembles now have this pulling northward over the next few days and into the open waters of the NW Caribbean, so the SHIPS is pretty much useless. Ah, I hadn't seen the BAMM track. Anyhoo, I'm still glad it's sensing good conditions in the W Caribbean. Cool that the credible models seem to be moving toward the N solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Ah, I hadn't seen the BAMM track. Anyhoo, I'm still glad it's sensing good conditions in the W Caribbean. Cool that the credible models seem to be moving toward the N solution. Based on the GFDL and HWRF for 96L you can at least start thinking about a trip to Cancun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Based on the GFDL and HWRF for 96L you can at least start thinking about a trip to Cancun... And the Euro I think there's a slightly higher chance for a Yucatan threat versus a FL one, SOI spike and the consequent SE ridge persistence plus the cold front delay will probably give the Yucatan the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 12Z Euro has a TC splitting the gap between Cancun and W. Cuba heading N at 138 hours- digging trough in southern NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 97L Invest is up at NRL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 EC hits Tampa Bay at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Is 97L of any interest to us? I like the Joan-style track shown by the BAMs-- and the SHIPS steadily intensifies it to a strong 'cane as it traverses the Caribbean. But I also the Euro doesn't even hint at the feature. Am I being desperate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Am I being desperate? Yes, yes we all are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Yes, yes we all are. Good to have the company at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Is 97L of any interest to us? I like the Joan-style track shown by the BAMs-- and the SHIPS steadily intensifies it to a strong 'cane as it traverses the Caribbean. But I also the Euro doesn't even hint at the feature. Am I being desperate? Not necessarily true... the ECWMF actually has quite a well defined signature of the system at 500mb and has had this signature for the past several runs. Why this doesn't translate into a better signal near the surface is a bit of a mystery, although it does indicate a convectivly active disturbance in the mid-levels at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 That 500-mb view is very Joan 1988-like. I notice there's a lot of flaring up well E of 97L today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 97l bears watching right now, and could become a suprise if this hits the same enviornment that Rina is currently in as the models are predicting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 97l bears watching right now, and could become a suprise if this hits the same enviornment that Rina is currently in as the models are predicting Yea. The ECWMF still didn't spin it up into anything, but then again is had a very similar signature with Rina about 24 hours ago. 97L could certainly develop once it escapes land in the Central Caribbean (a la Matthew last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 97L continues to slowly become better organized this morning. The NHC has it at 40% per the 2 AM TWO. Track guidance suggests this disturbance will continue a WNW motion into the Central Caribbean and could become an issue in the the next day or so! We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 97L continues to slowly become better organized this morning. The NHC has it at 40% per the 2 AM TWO. Track guidance suggests this disturbance will continue a WNW motion into the Central Caribbean and could become an issue in the the next day or so! We will see. The anticyclonic arc motion of the convection doesn't really look like a very well organized disturbance. What has likely happened is that the vorticity is stuck along the south american coastline, and it will take a day or so until the system gets into the Central Caribbean to really start organizing (if it has enough time before it gets to Central America). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 97L continues to slowly become better organized this morning. The NHC has it at 40% per the 2 AM TWO. Track guidance suggests this disturbance will continue a WNW motion into the Central Caribbean and could become an issue in the the next day or so! We will see. It's got a chance over the weekend as it heads to the NW Caribbean... I don't think we'll see any serious development until Friday or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nice flare up overnight to the east of Nicaragua and Honduras. Anyone think it has potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Nice flare up overnight to the east of Nicaragua and Honduras. Anyone think it has potential? I think Rina leftovers will merge with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I think Rina leftovers will merge with this one. And then cause another coastal low along the Atlantic Seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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