NickD2011 Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I find it hard to believe that the temperatures will rise overnight and fall in the middle of the day every day this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 I find it hard to believe that the temperatures will rise overnight and fall in the middle of the day every day this week. Temperatures do rise after midnight...just several hours afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermanchild Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Might they be trying to emphasize the sea breeze effect on the temperatures during the day? Ocean and nearshore Temps are in the low to mid 60s and with Highs into the mid 90s, thats a pretty good gradient. Also, after a few hours of cloud free nighttime, the mountains will cool way off and maybe then they are trying to say there will be a land breeze (exact same thing as a sea breeze except the winds come off the land). the cooler mountain air would warm by compression by the time it got to the coast but thats the only explaination I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 See the near term for a total recall. wooops. I always read any AFD i do before posting. I guess Hayes didn't? just kidding. They do a great job at PHI. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 328 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011 SYNOPSIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/ THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND A WIND SHIFT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRATUS AND FOG ARE TRYING TO MAKE INROADS INTO NEW JERSEY...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD SHOVE THIS MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDINESS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY HAVE A HARD TIME THINNING OUT BEFORE THERMALLY INDUCED CLOUDINESS RETURNS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AT ITS PEAK THIS MORNING...AND IN THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND THIS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS WILL BE UNDER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES...ANY CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE TERRAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY CUMULUS. STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL ALLOW THE CUMULUS TO SPREAD OUT...AND MOST PLACES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP. AFTER THEY STABILIZE NEAR 10 DEGREES CELSIUS...THEY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSE...THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE FAVORED FOR HIGHS. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUGGEST A SMALL ARE OF CAPE DEVELOPING UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP. MOISTURE WILL END UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND A WIND SHIFT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRATUS AND FOG ARE TRYING TO MAKE INROADS INTO NEW JERSEY...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD SHOVE THIS MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDINESS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY HAVE A HARD TIME THINNING OUT BEFORE THERMALLY INDUCED CLOUDINESS RETURNS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AT ITS PEAK THIS MORNING...AND IN THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND THIS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS WILL BE UNDER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES...ANY CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE TERRAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY CUMULUS. STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL ALLOW THE CUMULUS TO SPREAD OUT...AND MOST PLACES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP. AFTER THEY STABILIZE NEAR 10 DEGREES CELSIUS...THEY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSE...THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE FAVORED FOR HIGHS. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUGGEST A SMALL ARE OF CAPE DEVELOPING UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP. MOISTURE WILL END UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND A WIND SHIFT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRATUS AND FOG ARE TRYING TO MAKE INROADS INTO NEW JERSEY...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD SHOVE THIS MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE CLOUDINESS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY HAVE A HARD TIME THINNING OUT BEFORE THERMALLY INDUCED CLOUDINESS RETURNS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AT ITS PEAK THIS MORNING...AND IN THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND THIS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS WILL BE UNDER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES...ANY CLEARING OUTSIDE OF THE TERRAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY CUMULUS. STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL ALLOW THE CUMULUS TO SPREAD OUT...AND MOST PLACES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP. AFTER THEY STABILIZE NEAR 10 DEGREES CELSIUS...THEY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSE...THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE FAVORED FOR HIGHS. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUGGEST A SMALL ARE OF CAPE DEVELOPING UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP. MOISTURE WILL END UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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