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Weird forecast from Mt Holly


NickD2011

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Might they be trying to emphasize the sea breeze effect on the temperatures during the day? Ocean and nearshore Temps are in the low to mid 60s and with Highs into the mid 90s, thats a pretty good gradient. Also, after a few hours of cloud free nighttime, the mountains will cool way off and maybe then they are trying to say there will be a land breeze (exact same thing as a sea breeze except the winds come off the land). the cooler mountain air would warm by compression by the time it got to the coast but thats the only explaination I have.

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See the near term for a total recall. wooops.:rolleyes: I always read any AFD i do before posting. I guess Hayes didn't? just kidding. They do a great job at PHI.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

328 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

SYNOPSIS

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES TODAY

AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE

UPCOMING WEEKEND.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE EARLY

THIS MORNING...MARKED WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND A WIND SHIFT. AHEAD

OF THE FRONT...STRATUS AND FOG ARE TRYING TO MAKE INROADS INTO NEW

JERSEY...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD SHOVE THIS MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE

MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION

REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS

TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDINESS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN

THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY HAVE A HARD TIME THINNING OUT BEFORE

THERMALLY INDUCED CLOUDINESS RETURNS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AT ITS PEAK THIS MORNING...AND IN THE

AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS NORTHWEST OF THE

REGION WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND THIS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO

THE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE

THIS WILL BE UNDER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES...ANY CLEARING OUTSIDE

OF THE TERRAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY CUMULUS.

STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL ALLOW THE CUMULUS TO SPREAD OUT...AND

MOST PLACES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND...WHERE

CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY

SUNNY.

SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL

CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP. AFTER THEY STABILIZE NEAR 10

DEGREES CELSIUS...THEY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S

ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE

MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSE...THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE

FAVORED FOR HIGHS.

MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUGGEST A SMALL

ARE OF CAPE DEVELOPING UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP. MOISTURE

WILL END UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THE

MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE

ROUNDING THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BE

LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE EARLY

THIS MORNING...MARKED WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND A WIND SHIFT. AHEAD

OF THE FRONT...STRATUS AND FOG ARE TRYING TO MAKE INROADS INTO NEW

JERSEY...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD SHOVE THIS MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE

MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION

REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS

TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDINESS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN

THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY HAVE A HARD TIME THINNING OUT BEFORE

THERMALLY INDUCED CLOUDINESS RETURNS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AT ITS PEAK THIS MORNING...AND IN THE

AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS NORTHWEST OF THE

REGION WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND THIS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO

THE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE

THIS WILL BE UNDER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES...ANY CLEARING OUTSIDE

OF THE TERRAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY CUMULUS.

STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL ALLOW THE CUMULUS TO SPREAD OUT...AND

MOST PLACES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND...WHERE

CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY

SUNNY.

SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL

CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP. AFTER THEY STABILIZE NEAR 10

DEGREES CELSIUS...THEY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S

ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE

MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSE...THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE

FAVORED FOR HIGHS.

MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUGGEST A SMALL

ARE OF CAPE DEVELOPING UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP. MOISTURE

WILL END UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THE

MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE

ROUNDING THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BE

LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE EARLY

THIS MORNING...MARKED WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND A WIND SHIFT. AHEAD

OF THE FRONT...STRATUS AND FOG ARE TRYING TO MAKE INROADS INTO NEW

JERSEY...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD SHOVE THIS MOISTURE OFFSHORE BEFORE

MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION

REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

DESPITE DRIER AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS

TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDINESS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN

THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY HAVE A HARD TIME THINNING OUT BEFORE

THERMALLY INDUCED CLOUDINESS RETURNS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AT ITS PEAK THIS MORNING...AND IN THE

AIRMASS CHANGE WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.

CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FROM 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS NORTHWEST OF THE

REGION WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND THIS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO

THE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE

THIS WILL BE UNDER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES...ANY CLEARING OUTSIDE

OF THE TERRAIN THIS MORNING WILL BE REPLACED BY CUMULUS.

STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL ALLOW THE CUMULUS TO SPREAD OUT...AND

MOST PLACES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND...WHERE

CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COULD STAY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY

SUNNY.

SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL

CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP. AFTER THEY STABILIZE NEAR 10

DEGREES CELSIUS...THEY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S

ACROSS THE SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE

MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSE...THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE

FAVORED FOR HIGHS.

MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUGGEST A SMALL

ARE OF CAPE DEVELOPING UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP. MOISTURE

WILL END UP BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...THE

MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE

ROUNDING THE CLOSED MID LEVEL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WILL BE

LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

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