caviman2201 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 KML, what do you mean by "capped"? I've heard that mentioned several times in the last few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Tornado watch coming by 2pm for areas north of us in PA/NY. Discussion mentions potential for iso tornadoes and "very large hail" http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0979.html - I wonder if we will get a watch. HB on his live chat on Livestream says we still are capped around these parts. Yeah, it's a pretty decent cap. But, if we can get to Con. Temp.~ 90-ish, and the dewpoints don't mix out into the lower 60s, it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 parameters can lead astray.. just watch yoda post over the course of a few mo I would love to see a storm today.. really I would. But yes, I know what you are saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Yeah, it's a pretty decent cap. But, if we can get to Con. Temp.~ 90-ish, and the dewpoints don't mix out into the lower 60s, it's possible. Seems like 87-90 is definitely possible. Not sure about dewpoints though - for the time being they are still around 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Really not much change at all on the 1630z outlook. Just 10% tornado added in the northeast. Hatched hail didn't move either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 10% torn in ny.. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 10% torn in ny.. nice Are you going with a DC = meh today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Also just an observation but derecho param is 8 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 10% torn in ny.. nice Oh, to be back at O-state. Broome/Greene/Otsego Counties are a mini tornado alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Everything just screams severe weather, but can we get a trigger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Are you going with a DC = meh today? i dunno.. havent looke much. initial thoughts were there's not a lot of forcing in our area, tho 500/850 features are in the general area you'd want for storms. i see a few cu going up on the ridges tho, so we'll see. not sure i buy into that high risk to the north either with the system falling apart but it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Everything just screams severe weather, but can we get a trigger? Go buy 64,000 industrial fans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 torn watch way the heck up there.. northern vt chasing anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 torn watch way the heck up there.. northern vt chasing anyone? Adirondack Mtn. climbers having a good chase day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Go buy 64,000 industrial fans Eh, I might just let DC do its urban heat island thing, crank up the AC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Also just an observation but derecho param is 8 lol Hail remained in the 2" for our area. SBCAPE is 3500-4000 MLCAPE of 2000 is nosing in to the N VA area. LI's -7 to -8 with LL Lapse Rates ~7.5 C/KM. ML Lapse Rates are 7.5 to 8C/KM still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Adirondack Mtn. climbers having a good chase day... good vis up top i guess .. unless your in the fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 14Z HRRR has a couple storms pushing farther south than 13Z run... garden-variety around 3-4p in DC metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 KML, what do you mean by "capped"? I've heard that mentioned several times in the last few days... I'm not KML, but I noticed no one answered.. here is NWS defnition of Cap Cap (also called "Lid") A layer of relatively warm air aloft, usually several thousand feet above the ground, which suppresses or delays the development of thunderstorms. Air parcels rising into this layer become cooler than the surrounding air, which inhibits their ability to rise further and produce thunderstorms. As such, the cap often prevents or delays thunderstorm development even in the presence of extreme instability. However, if the cap is removed or weakened, then explosive thunderstorm development can occur. The cap is an important ingredient in most severe thunderstorm episodes, as it serves to separate warm, moist air below and cooler, drier air above. With the cap in place, air below it can continue to warm and/or moisten, thus increasing the amount of potential instability. Or, air above it can cool, which also increases potential instability. But without a cap, either process (warming/moistening at low levels or cooling aloft) results in a faster release of available instability - often before instability levels become large enough to support severe weather development. Hopefully that helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 the cap is your friend.. until it randomly kicks you in the nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 the cap is your friend.. until it randomly kicks you in the nuts Well put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 the cap is your friend.. until it randomly kicks you in the nuts Do you feel lucky today? Huh? Do ya punk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 the cap is your friend.. until it randomly kicks you in the nuts .. I almost choked on my lunch! That was great Ian. SKEW-T: A LOOK AT CAP WHAT CREATES A CAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Oooooh now you all chime in about the cap, poor guy asked a question and everyone ignored him... but me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Do you feel lucky today? Huh? Do ya punk? Not particularly but that could be early may high instability/weak trigger blue sky busts talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Mini-Contest... Highest ET were going to see in the sub-forum area today. I'll say, 43 kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Getting closer... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN VA...WV...MD PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261715Z - 261845Z CU FIELD IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA AND WV. THIS LIKELY IS A REFLECTION OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO INTENSE HEATING AND SBCAPE VALUES NOW REFLECT VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000 J/KG BENEATH MODESTLY STRONG SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW. UPSTREAM...CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS PARS OF KY/ERN TN AND WILL SOON SPREAD INTO THE REGION MENTIONED. GIVEN THIS EVOLUTION IT WOULD APPEAR THAT DAMAGING WINDS COULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED WITH STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS OR BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. ..DARROW.. 05/26/2011 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Activity will probably remain west. Don't think DC will get anything special today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Activity will probably remain west. Don't think DC will get anything special today. 1700z SPC mesoanalysis: Derecho composite 8-10 now 4000-4500 SBCAPE 3000 MLCAPE Left moving supercell -8 in NW VA LI is -10 LL Lapse Rates still around 7.5 C/KM ML Lapse Rates are nearing 8 C/KM Effective Bulk shear 30-35 kts Craven Brooks SigSvr 40-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 i can't believe the CAPE values... SBCAPE 4500+ in northern and northeastern MD and MLCAPE 3000+ in central MD, NoVA and SE PA... LI values of -10 in those same locations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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