Amos83 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Hearing thunder in the distance now. Just went under a Svr Tstorm warning..... sun is out and to the west looks very dark. Will let everyone know how it unfolds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1207 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN HORRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHEASTERN DILLON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHEASTERN ROBESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WESTERN COLUMBUS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA * UNTIL 100 PM EDT * AT 1205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BRITTON NECK...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... GALIVANTS FERRY... GAPWAY... MULLINS... GREEN SEA... CHERRY GROVE... CLARENDON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 mini supercels may be forming ahead of the line over SC into NC at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Tornado warning out for Robeson County, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 PDS Tornado Watch EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AREPOSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 watch discussion DISCUSSION...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND THE S OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD THROUGH NC INTO VA. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR IS MOIST AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT...EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-450+ M2/S2 AND ANTICIPATED DISCRETE STORM MODES SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Wonder what the SPC will do for the 16:30 outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 HIGH RISK COMING EASTERN NC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0454.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Another view of the Horry County cell I just captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 90/80 in the TORs... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 HIGH..after yesterday lks like SPC is taking no chances MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 161616Z - 161715Z AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE IS FORTHCOMING FOR ERN NC. THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING LENDS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Storm developing just northeast of Horry County cell looks to have rotation as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 High risk is coming soon! Stay safe over there everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 First high risk of the year in the Carolinas...who woulda guessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 First time I can ever remember being under a high risk. Wow. And a PDS Tornado Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Front just pushed through here,nothing severe but some heavy rain gusty winds. 1.6'' storm total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 First high risk of the year in the Carolinas...who woulda guessed. seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 The set up yesterday wasa little better over AL/MS ..I would of left it as is. ( high end Moderate) but oh well here is the text ' 'DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC... ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SC NC AND VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND ERN GA... ...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC WHERE A HIGH RISK HAS BEEN ADDED... ..CAROLINAS/VA/WV/MID-ATLANTIC/ERN GA A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS TODAY AS A WELL-DEFINED 70 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE JET WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE TODAY ALONG A MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS IN THE WRN CAROLINAS AND RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL/ERN CAROLINAS AND ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS IN THE ERN CAROLINAS AT 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG SUGGESTING THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IN THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. 0 TO 3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 550 M2/S2 RANGE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE DOMINANT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST FROM RALEIGH NC SSWWD TO NEAR FLORENCE SC AND EAST OF THAT LINE ABOUT 100 STATUTE MILES. THIS AREA WILL BE LOCATED WHERE THE CROSSOVER OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET IS MAXIMIZED. A LONG-TRACK TORNADO OR TWO IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA IN ERN NC AND FAR ERN SC. AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND A LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZES...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO DEVELOP FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO ERN GA. 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC AND A FAST EWD MOTION OF THE LINE SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS ACROSS THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS. SUPERCELLS AND THE MORE INTENSE CELLS WITHIN THE LINE SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AS WELL. THE LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS FAR NORTH AS NRN VA AND MD...THE THREAT WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL. ACROSS ERN GA...THIS AREA WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AND REMOVED FROM THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE ISOLATED ACROSS ERN GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 This is an extremely rare and extremely dangerous event. Hope everyone stays safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 leaving work and gonna chase back home down through the Uwharries. Get a great view coming down from Thomasville back way dropping toward 64. Only have the cell phone camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Wow- my Dads in Myrtle Beach on a golfing trip this weekend so I'm keeping close watch on those cells down there. He got 18 in this morning but then everyone was forced off the course when the TOR warning went up...should be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Great day to test drive GRL2 if you don't own it. Hope everyone stays safe today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 line of storms just passed through here. A ton of heavy rain and gusty winds but no hail and very little lightning. This line is going to mean business further east though. You could see the cloud getting sucked straight up into the storm as it is developing and the winds were swirling. One minute there were blowing E, then a few minutes W and so on. Stay safe people ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Lots of folks will be on the road today on the way to vacation for Spring Break, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 This is an extremely rare and extremely dangerous event. Hope everyone stays safe. Does anyone know how often we get a high risk area and a PDS Tornado Watch in the Carolinas? I honestly don't remember the last one...I know it's rare just trying to get some historical perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Large cumulus heading east,the clearing behind this is amazing not a cloud in the sky over or W of here. TOR warning up for Rowan now,cell just went over me 20 or 30 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 WRAL said the last time we were in a high risk here was March 1984. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 the line may be breaking up some with dominate embeded storms now showing signs of rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 ESRH is near 670.. Pretty scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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