WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looks like the GFS has finally come around to reality. There's going to be some 1" snows probably in Ga and Alabama, maybe 2" in spots, but eastern NC is where the moisture really begins to pick up. (looks overdone there though) Still next to nothing for the lee areas around here though. Somewhat concerned about what falls before 1am, as most of the guidance has a slug of moisture coming through late evening, that could possibly be RN with 850's making a run for 0C, and obvious BL issues to contend with. If that first batch is in the form of SN, than I could see some 2-4" amounts to the NE of here, but if it is RN, followed by a changeover during the overnight, that will likely cut back on totals, in the 1-2" range depending on how much falls as liquid, with the highest amounts along the central and northern inner banks. First GFS run in recent memory where the op actually looks like the previous mean around here. 6z mean, 36hr total, for comparison to the graphic above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 wow...GFS ramps up the qpf for central/ERN N. Looks like +.20 for RDU...we'll see. Not sold. It's going to be close. If we do get greater precip rates we'll also get higher snow rations (temps would drop lower). So if we (say RDU) only get .1 liquid or less then a dusting to 1 inch would be the most we could except. > .2 and we could get greater that 10:1 ratios and get 3 inches or more. This really is going to be a now cast situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Somewhat concerned about what falls before 1am, as most of the guidance has a slug of moisture coming through late evening, that could possibly be RN with 850's making a run for 0C, and obvious BL issues to contend with. If that first batch is in the form of SN, than I could see some 2-4" amounts to the NE of here, but if it is RN, followed by a changeover during the overnight, that will likely cut back on totals, in the 1-2" range depending on how much falls as liquid, with the highest amounts along the central and northern inner banks. First GFS run in recent memory where the op actually looks like the previous mean around here. I have to ask, being a life-long resident of the Outer Banks (until just recently)- what are you referring to when you speak of the "northern inner banks?" Never heard that expression before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Heading into MS now and at this point, nothing is getting weaker, time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 It's going to be close. If we do get greater precip rates we'll also get higher snow rations (temps would drop lower). So if we (say RDU) only get .1 liquid or less then a dusting to 1 inch would be the most we could except. > .2 and we could get greater that 10:1 ratios and get 3 inches or more. This really is going to be a now cast situation. absolutely agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Yep. GFS has finally come around to reality. Now shows a good 1-2" in I-20 corridor. Good GFS. Now run along and play with your toys with the JMA and NO Gaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I'll take a stab at things in North Carolina after seeing the 12z runs. Raleigh: 1-3" of snow (probably closer to 1-2" with 3" being the best-case scenario). Greenville: 2-5" Charlotte: Dusting-1" Greensboro: Dusting-1/2" East of I-95 is where you want to be, IMO. The northern Outer Banks could cash in nicely if temperatures cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 NWS GSP has just posted a WWA for most of their viewing area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Looks like I might be in the catbirds seat here in SEVA with this one, GFS shows .50 precip now should be mainly snow.. I still think the smokies and much of WNC will get 2-3 inches from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 I have to ask, being a life-long resident of the Outer Banks (until just recently)- what are you referring to when you speak of the "northern inner banks?" Never heard that expression before. I consider Beaufort, Hyde, Tyrrell, mainland Dare, and Washington county the central inner banks, and Bertie, Chowan and Perquimans counties the northern inner banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Their reasoning seems pretty sound to me: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UPSTREAM PCPN CURRENTLY OVER NRN AR ALONG ABAND OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPERTROPOSPHERIC JET. THIS ENTRANCE REGION WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARDTONIGHT. WHILE THE QPF IS QUITE LOW ON THE NAM...IT BRINGS THESEFRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA INTO THE FA AFTER 00 UTC.THE 09 UTC RUN OF THE SREF HAS COME IN WETTER. USING A 12:1 SNOWRATIO...WHICH MIGHT BE LOW OVER THE MTNS...I GET ENOUGH SNOWFALLFROM THE SREF TONIGHT FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE ENTIREFA. WE MAY NOT SEE ENOUGH FOR OFFICIAL ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE NCFOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS THERE SHOULD BEPLENTY OF SLICK SPOTS LATER TONIGHT WHICH WARRANTS AN ADVISORY FOR PUBLIC IMPACT ALONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Folks, For ATL-AHN, the 12Z gfs is by far the wettest of the last four runs with ~2" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 wow...GFS ramps up the qpf for central/ERN N. Looks like +.20 for RDU...we'll see. Not sold. Here's the bufkit overview for KRDU from this morning's SREF . Green line is apparent temp. Blue is ratio. It is building moisture from earlier runs. FWIW Thanks for the education. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 WOW: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 908 AM CST WED FEB 09 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0830 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 SW JASPER 35.93N 93.28W 02/09/2011 E12.0 INCH NEWTON AR BROADCAST MEDIA AT MURRAY IN NEWTON COUNTY...THERE WAS ONLY A DUSTING AT 530 AM...AND THEN 12 INCHES AS OF 830 AM. What is this 4" Hour Rates... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Western front checking in (Memphis area)... Looks like im fixing to get pounded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Western front checking in (Memphis area)... Looks like im fixing to get pounded! Keep us updated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 WOW: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 908 AM CST WED FEB 09 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0830 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 SW JASPER 35.93N 93.28W 02/09/2011 E12.0 INCH NEWTON AR BROADCAST MEDIA AT MURRAY IN NEWTON COUNTY...THERE WAS ONLY A DUSTING AT 530 AM...AND THEN 12 INCHES AS OF 830 AM. What is this 4" Hour Rates... In NW Arkansas there is a heavy deformation band and it is about 15F, meaning that the snowfall rates will be incredible. That's more of an arctic powder than a heavy wet snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 WOW: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 908 AM CST WED FEB 09 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0830 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 SW JASPER 35.93N 93.28W 02/09/2011 E12.0 INCH NEWTON AR BROADCAST MEDIA AT MURRAY IN NEWTON COUNTY...THERE WAS ONLY A DUSTING AT 530 AM...AND THEN 12 INCHES AS OF 830 AM. What is this 4" Hour Rates... That is amazing on two fronts. One just the fact it happened and two you wouldn't think so looking at radar. Yes the snow is solid and there are heavier bands but you wouldn't think there would be 4 inch per hour rates just looking at radar. Must be some great ratios too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hey Robert, if your around. Remember when we met up at Denny's and you were shocked at the rain we were getting. Is this a similar setup? I can't remember but I thought it had the same route to us and even up until it happened it looked like we were going to get diddly squat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 My latest discussion and forecast map http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/1-3-inches-of-snow-likely-wednesday-night-thursday-am-across-raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliapalooza Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Folks, For ATL-AHN, the 12Z gfs is by far the wettest of the last four runs with ~2" of snow! Hi, Everyone! Long time lurker, first time poster! If ATL is to have more moisture, wouldn't the NC piedmont receive more as well? Perhaps it is more anecdotal than analytic, but the "rule" around here-so I've heard- is if Atlanta gets it, so does the Southern Piedmont. While radar returns and reporting are looking strong, I'm anticipating that the once this thing gets over the Apps, it will die. The expectation is that it will look continually look strong on radar... Please refrain from flaming. I'm genuinely trying to learn the ins and outs of all of this so that I can be a bonafide "Armchair Meteorologist" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Western front checking in (Memphis area)... Looks like im fixing to get pounded! Good luck man! Post lots of pics for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Huntsville AFD update: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1015 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011 .UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE && .DISCUSSION...FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE CHANGING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS W OF THE AREA HAS SOME MOD TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO CNTRL AND ERN AR. WHILE THIS TREND IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST...THE TIMING DOES LOOK TO COINCIDE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING...WITH SNOW SHOWERS XPCTED TO MOVE INTO NW AL AFTER 3 PM. PRECIP WILL THEN STEADILY MOVE EWD HEADING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION STILL LOOKS TO AVERAGE AOA 2 INCHES...OR PERHAPS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALL OF THIS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH DID LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE XPCTED PRECIP/SNOW...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER. UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS OUT SHORTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Question...I've been keeping my eye on the Mesoscale and the low is sitting at 1012 almost in the same place as it was 12 hours ago...am I looking at the wrong thing here? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought it was supposed to transfer into the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hi, Everyone! Long time lurker, first time poster! If ATL is to have more moisture, wouldn't the NC piedmont receive more as well? Perhaps it is more anecdotal than analytic, but the "rule" around here-so I've heard- is if Atlanta gets it, so does the Southern Piedmont. While radar returns and reporting are looking strong, I'm anticipating that the once this thing gets over the Apps, it will die. The expectation is that it will look continually look strong on radar... Please refrain from flaming. I'm genuinely trying to learn the ins and outs of all of this so that I can be a bonafide "Armchair Meteorologist" The general thinking is that it will weaken as it moves east, limiting the amount of moisture western NC gets. We'll see if everyone still has that train of thought this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Seeing storm reports of 20"+ in Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Two feet in Arkansas, ladies and gentlemen... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK1018 AM CST WED FEB 09 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0938 AM HEAVY SNOW CLIFTY 36.24N 93.80W 02/09/2011 E24.0 INCH MADISON AR BROADCAST MEDIA 0944 AM HEAVY SNOW GRAVETTE 36.42N 94.45W 02/09/2011 E24.0 INCH BENTON AR BROADCAST MEDIA 0950 AM HEAVY SNOW HINDSVILLE 36.14N 93.86W 02/09/2011 E24.0 INCH MADISON AR TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Hi, Everyone! Long time lurker, first time poster! If ATL is to have more moisture, wouldn't the NC piedmont receive more as well? Perhaps it is more anecdotal than analytic, but the "rule" around here-so I've heard- is if Atlanta gets it, so does the Southern Piedmont. While radar returns and reporting are looking strong, I'm anticipating that the once this thing gets over the Apps, it will die. The expectation is that it will look continually look strong on radar... Please refrain from flaming. I'm genuinely trying to learn the ins and outs of all of this so that I can be a bonafide "Armchair Meteorologist" Welcome aboard Julia! Glad to see you finally signed up. Don't worry though. We have the pros and whatnot that will walk you through everything if you're having trouble understanding something. Btw, check out this link if you haven't done so yet: On another note, radar looks impressive back west. Despite seeing this thing weaken as it progresses east, I'm still amazed by some of the accumulations that have already taken place there. I say congrats to the folks over there for cashing in off this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 Question...I've been keeping my eye on the Mesoscale and the low is sitting at 1012 almost in the same place as it was 12 hours ago...am I looking at the wrong thing here? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought it was supposed to transfer into the Gulf. It is suppose to. It's sitting a a fairly southern position in Texas so we'll see how that translates into moisture for us. What I want to see if some of those little vortex max's that are causing some of the forcing in Arkansas, can make it to our neck of the woods. So far... I'm pretty optimistic about this system, at least for our area. Things can change as the day goes on so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 9, 2011 Share Posted February 9, 2011 My latest discussion and forecast map http://www.examiner....-across-raleigh Thanks Raleigh! Looks like RGEM is roughly .25" for RDU too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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