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I was thinking we could do a contest guessing the max intensity of Irma. Here is how it will go you will guess what the lowest minimum central pressure will be and the highest wind speed. The scoring will work as follows every 1mb you are away from the actual lowest is minus 1 point. And every 5 mph you are away from the actual highest mph reading is minus 1 point. This is since nws intensity goes in multiples of 5. The scoring would look like this. If I guessed 941mb min and 140 mph max winds, and the actual was 935mb and max winds 150mph, my score would be -8. -6 for being 6mb off and -2 for being 10 mph off. So good luck! TIEBREAKER IS LANDFALL LOCATION in contiguous United States .You can always say none of you think it's going Ots. Contest closes at 12pm Tuesday. EDIT AND CHANGES ARE ALLOWED UP UNTIL THE DEADLINE.
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Another snowfall season is upon us...and so is another contest. This year we'll be doing the entire season...which officially runs from July 1, 2015 to June 30, 2016. So, obviously it's already started, but whatever. The contest is pretty simple: guess the total season snowfall for each of the following 20 sites in our region/sub-forum. Alpena, MI (APN) Chicago, IL (ORD) Cleveland, OH (CLE) Columbus, OH (CMH) Detroit, MI (DTW) Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) Green Bay, WI (GRB) Indianapolis, IN (IND) La Crosse, WI (LSE) London, ON (YXU) Louisville, KY (SDF) Marquette, MI (MQT) Milwaukee, WI (MKE) Minneapolis, MN (MSP) Moline, IL (MLI) Paducah, KY (PAH) Peoria, IL (PIA) St. Louis, MO (STL) Toronto, ON (YYZ) Tiebreaker #1: December total snowfall at ORD Tiebreaker #2: January total snowfall at IND Tiebreaker #3: February total snowfall at DTW Winner will be the person who has the least total error from actual snowfall. Deadline to enter is November 1, 2015. Good luck to all. A little help maybe, but here's the last 30 years of season snowfall totals for all 20 sites (and the average of those 30 seasons). Nino seasons shaded in red.
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What are your thoughts on Day 1 MRGL, SLGT and MDT risk severe outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center in New England this year? The poll will close at 11:59 p.m. March 31st and I will post the entries. (Please include specific dates and exact numbers of each outlook to be entered into the contest) Last year, the SEE TEXT outlook is equivalent to the MRGL outlook going forward. This poll considers only Day 1 outlooks and not outlooks from days 2-8, as they could be eliminated prior to a potential non-event. 2014 stats: Date of first SEE TEXT outlook - May 10th 1630z (SW New England) 16 SEE TEXT outlooks (not including days that had prior or subsequent SLGT)Date of first SLGT outlook - May 27th 1300z (W New England) 17 total SLGT outlooksNo MDT risk outlooks - Last was September 8th, 2012 (Much of New England) The winner will simply have the least error points. There will be one error point for each day off and number of outlooks off. I'm still working out some thoughts for a potential tiebreaker. Any ideas? I toyed with the MDT risk category, but that may not help. Maybe total number of tornadoes in New England in 2015?
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How much snow will fall Tuesday night before changing to a messy mix? Will temperatures torch on Wednesday or stay socked in the 30s before tumbling at night? Here's how the contest will run... Predict the total snowfall from Tuesday, March 3rd, through Wednesday*, March 4th: BDR Stratford/Bridgeport, Sikorsky Airport BDL Windsor Locks, Bradley Int'l Airport PVD Providence, TF Green Airport ORH Worcester, Regional Airport BOS Boston, Logan Airport You are encouraged to report snowfall to the nearest tenth of an inch. AND Predict the high temperature on Wednesday, March 4th for the same stations. Please report temperatures to the nearest whole degree, otherwise the number will be rounded. The temperature scoring is the same as the last, similar contest. Each degree error per station results in one error point. For snowfall, each half inch of snow error per station results in one error point. This means that being one inch off for a station results in two error points. Being off by 0.1 inches results in 0.2 error points. All total error points for temperature and snowfall will be added to determine the winner. In the event of a tie, the contestant who has the closest to zero overall bias score (will factor positive and negative error points for an overall "contest bias" score) will win. See previous contest for more details on the bias score, if it becomes a factor in determining the winner. *For the ease of processing data, the CF6 NWS form will be used. Keep in mind that although this contest is focusing on the "front-end thump" of snow, if any additional snow happens to fall Wednesday night, prior to the end of the climo day, that may factor into the scoring. The deadline for submitting a forecast is 2:00 p.m. on Tuesday, March 3rd. This will give the board time to consider the contest, forecast models and to assess some of the Tuesday 12z data. You can edit a post at any point up until that time, as forecasts will not be tallied until the deadline. Good luck!
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Will we torch or get socked into more of an icy/snowy scenario for Sunday? Here's how the contest will run... Predict the high temperature for the following stations on Sunday, February 22nd: BDR Stratford/Bridgeport, Sikorsky Airport BDL Windsor Locks, Bradley Int'l Airport PVD Providence, TF Green Airport ORH Worcester, Regional Airport BOS Boston, Logan Airport Tie-breaker prediction: Highest maximum temperature at any official southern New England ASOS site on Sunday. Please include station name. Scoring is simple. Each degree error results in one error point. In the case of a tie, the user who is closest to the highest maximum temperature in southern New England is the winner. If there is a second tie, the user who has the closest to zero overall bias score (will factor positive and negative error points for an overall "contest bias" score) will win. If there's a third tie, then there can be multiple winners. The deadline for submitting a forecast is 12:00 p.m. (noon) on Thursday, February 19th. This will give the board time to consider the contest, forecast models and to assess some of the Thursday 12z data. You can edit a post at any point up until that time, as forecasts will not be tallied until the deadline. Good luck!
