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GD0815

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Posts posted by GD0815

    Vendor forecast thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Nice write up from JB this evening....

    January 31 06:35 PM

     

    "I dont now where Paul Stokols is now. He was (is) a giant to me, the first person to teach me about the negative EPO back in the 1970s. He was part of the gifts from the good lord that arrived at PSU, a whole slew of Meteo grad students, that took me under their wing and showed me alot of what I use today. I name rules after who taught them to me. I have no idea if these rules are named after anyone else. I was taught to always credit the person that taught me and I do.

    A word about Paul. He became part of the mid range forecast center back in the 1980s, that included Joe Shipps and Dave Weinstein. He then went to the Fire Center and became the Chief. But the rule in DC was a 55 heights THK 540 and heights falling when snow started, it stayed snow.

     

    The reason is fairly intuitive. If the heights are still rising it is a sign that the ridge is still building and the war advection that is causing the snow in the first place is going to win. If they fall, then the rate of cooling aloft is enough to sustain the snow. Its like the BGM rule and Central Park On a northwest wind the temp in the park is 13 higher than BGM is 5 hours later. As with all rules there are exception.

    Now Paul like me was a snow geek. So I am sure the rules developed for DC dont have to apply else where. But chances are if it starts snowing and the height fall, it will stay snow

    So lets "play: with my back yard State college. It starts snowing around noon tomorrow, and the heights hold steady then fall. Should stay almost all snow. If it sleets or freezing rains for a while, it will be because we had a heck of alot of precip

    The there is my dads rule, though he may have heard it from Norm Macdonald on WBZ I remember as a kid lamenting the hours when it was cold in ACY and it was not snowing but it was snowing west of us. It would come in as a few flakes but have warmed up so it rained. " It snows where it wants to snow" I heard that first in 1966 when the week before the blizzard of 66, we had a snowstorm forecasted and it rained. My great friend Bernie Rayno tweeted today that he heard that from the great Norm MacDonald of WBZ weather fame when he worked at the place I used to work at. If so, then perhaps that rule from Dad was something he saw on WBZ, I know I used to say it around work all the time, but if Norm said it first ten its his rule. How does it apply here? Watch the snow tomorrow. Where that streak goes, is going to have a heck of a storm and chances are the changeover line wont move north more than 100 miles

    So why am I so different. Well think about this. What does the model have the best chance of hitting? What is right in front of it, right? Well it is headed toward a warm air festival, the downsloping west of the Appalachians. So it should pull up into SE Ohio and to SW pa. But its ONLY after it actually sees what is or isnt waiting for it in an east of the mountains, that it is likely to figure out where to go after. This is still 24 hours away, IMO in really having a handle on it. Am I right, well we will have to see. I have my oltdimers rule, and they dont involve slitting my throat over a NAM or GFS run. That being said I fully understand I may be wrong.

    What I am not wrong about though is the pattern producing this. Enjoy it It is highly unlikely after this winter, in your lifetime you will see a SNOW DEPTH forecast like this, close to 40" ne of Pit and Se Mass. So I am not going to get all bent out of shape and grieve over backyard debacles including my own back yard. If I miss by 50 miles but explained the why before the what a week before, I just cant get upset about it anymore. Yell at the local forecasters that 5 days before had a chance of snow showers in the forecast. But here is what I can say. This target period, the 10 day Feb 1-5, the other 10 day call for the storm we went through in the east, the period Jan 26-Feb 10 which was made around Jan 15 to counter the wave of despair, just like we saw in mid Jan 2010, that winter was over ( Again the SOI crashed and look what the cattle prod did) were all part of a bigger message. WINTER HAS JUST BEGUN TO FIGHT"

     

    Nice write up from JB this evening....

    January 31 06:35 PM

     

    "I dont now where Paul Stokols is now. He was (is) a giant to me, the first person to teach me about the negative EPO back in the 1970s. He was part of the gifts from the good lord that arrived at PSU, a whole slew of Meteo grad students, that took me under their wing and showed me alot of what I use today. I name rules after who taught them to me. I have no idea if these rules are named after anyone else. I was taught to always credit the person that taught me and I do.

    A word about Paul. He became part of the mid range forecast center back in the 1980s, that included Joe Shipps and Dave Weinstein. He then went to the Fire Center and became the Chief. But the rule in DC was a 55 heights THK 540 and heights falling when snow started, it stayed snow.

     

    The reason is fairly intuitive. If the heights are still rising it is a sign that the ridge is still building and the war advection that is causing the snow in the first place is going to win. If they fall, then the rate of cooling aloft is enough to sustain the snow. Its like the BGM rule and Central Park On a northwest wind the temp in the park is 13 higher than BGM is 5 hours later. As with all rules there are exception.

    Now Paul like me was a snow geek. So I am sure the rules developed for DC dont have to apply else where. But chances are if it starts snowing and the height fall, it will stay snow

    So lets "play: with my back yard State college. It starts snowing around noon tomorrow, and the heights hold steady then fall. Should stay almost all snow. If it sleets or freezing rains for a while, it will be because we had a heck of alot of precip

    The there is my dads rule, though he may have heard it from Norm Macdonald on WBZ I remember as a kid lamenting the hours when it was cold in ACY and it was not snowing but it was snowing west of us. It would come in as a few flakes but have warmed up so it rained. " It snows where it wants to snow" I heard that first in 1966 when the week before the blizzard of 66, we had a snowstorm forecasted and it rained. My great friend Bernie Rayno tweeted today that he heard that from the great Norm MacDonald of WBZ weather fame when he worked at the place I used to work at. If so, then perhaps that rule from Dad was something he saw on WBZ, I know I used to say it around work all the time, but if Norm said it first ten its his rule. How does it apply here? Watch the snow tomorrow. Where that streak goes, is going to have a heck of a storm and chances are the changeover line wont move north more than 100 miles

    So why am I so different. Well think about this. What does the model have the best chance of hitting? What is right in front of it, right? Well it is headed toward a warm air festival, the downsloping west of the Appalachians. So it should pull up into SE Ohio and to SW pa. But its ONLY after it actually sees what is or isnt waiting for it in an east of the mountains, that it is likely to figure out where to go after. This is still 24 hours away, IMO in really having a handle on it. Am I right, well we will have to see. I have my oltdimers rule, and they dont involve slitting my throat over a NAM or GFS run. That being said I fully understand I may be wrong.

    What I am not wrong about though is the pattern producing this. Enjoy it It is highly unlikely after this winter, in your lifetime you will see a SNOW DEPTH forecast like this, close to 40" ne of Pit and Se Mass. So I am not going to get all bent out of shape and grieve over backyard debacles including my own back yard. If I miss by 50 miles but explained the why before the what a week before, I just cant get upset about it anymore. Yell at the local forecasters that 5 days before had a chance of snow showers in the forecast. But here is what I can say. This target period, the 10 day Feb 1-5, the other 10 day call for the storm we went through in the east, the period Jan 26-Feb 10 which was made around Jan 15 to counter the wave of despair, just like we saw in mid Jan 2010, that winter was over ( Again the SOI crashed and look what the cattle prod did) were all part of a bigger message. WINTER HAS JUST BEGUN TO FIGHT"

    see this kind of post annoys me, because it almost can't be wrong, if things happen a certain way, one thing will happen, and if they don't then it wont---so basically he can't be wrong.    I mean he is 1/3 of the way to admitting he is going to bust here, just admit it, you were too far south with the axis of snow

    Vendor forecast thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Rayno 6-12 for the NW burbs

     

    DiMartino 8-12 for the NW burbs

     

    These two are my favorites along with Glenn

     

    Guess they aren't buying the North trend

    i guess it also depends on what is being considered NW suburbs, go out a little bit and the north trend shouldnt impact numbers that much

    Vendor forecast thread

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Okay. So DT is wrong. Assumption is he does not want to fail or look foolish with his forecast.

    Let the challenge begin.

    Sad that I can't track the 850 level for snow in the middle of january.

    Hopefully I get an inch. Precip looks decent on the models with the 850 line past my area.

    Going with the storm will generate it's cold air in my area. :pimp:

    isn't that his forecast and not a model interpretation?  therefore, he isn't wrong yet.  I think he will be wrong, and the gfs does not back him up, but don't call bust before something happens.

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