Wxoutlooksblog

Heavy sleet here in Douglaston. WX/PT

I'm not yet convinced we are going back to an all northern stream based pattern though we might temporarily. In the long run for February I think there will be a semi active subtropical jet and that we get at least one or two southern stream or phase-up storm systems up our way. WX/PT

A few pings here. Mix of larger flakes and sleet. WX/PT

Not that long IMO. WX/PT

They'll end up with around 9 or 10". WX/PT

I think Central Park has snow until at least 3PM. WX/PT

When the best dynamics pass ne of you the snow should pretty much end and you'll have sleet. WX/PT

I think you'll start to hear pingers between 2-3PM and finish with 10-11". WX/PT

While there may be some similarities, the 2/13/14 storm didn't have a rapidly northeastward advancing warmer layer at 700mb. This one does. WX/PT

For the 10-14" numbers you need an intensifying coastal well south of our latitude. This one intensifies near Cape Cod, too late to wrap the cold air around at all levels. WX/PT

Spot-on. WX/PT

Why? Antecedent HP is retreating. WX/PT

Keep in mind, the primary low holds on and the coastal albeit too close to the coast, never takes over and becomes dominant. So the flow of warmer air at high levels is around the primary. Most of the precip is over, but most areas can still get a few hours of sleet or sleet/snow mix. Snow amounts are going to be a little lower than if we had rapidly deepening coastal low offshore completely taking over and the primary washing or nearly washing out. I think coastal sections are looking at 5-9" inland n and west 9-12". WX/PT

It might. But do not misinterpret what the Euro and to a greater extent other models have shown. The thrill of this event will be the heavy snow. When the dynamics begin to lift to our north and east some warmer air at upper levels causes some mixing and possibly a brief changeover Sunday night. But by the time this happens almost all the most significant precipitation most likely has fallen. Therefore the greater snow amounts we are seeing on the GFS and the operational Euro. Euro AI is probably overdoing the influx of warmer air at the upper levels as I suspect is NAM. WX/PT

I really do suspect that this is spot on. Unless there are repeated corrections in the modeling south and east, I think this will most likely be the summary of the storm. WX/PT

Morning or mid-day Sunday into late Sunday night or early Monday. WX/PT

And the answer may be in what happens with the 50/50 low and antecedent HP. And we have different schools of thought on that as well. WX/PT

Perfectly stated. And we do not know the answer for sure yet. We have two distinctly different schools of thought in the modeling. WX/PT

If a more amped situation verifies than what we see now, you're going mix or changeover to sleet and rain and have about 4-6" less than an all snow solution would give you. And there are still 3 days of modeling prior to the onset of the storm. Normally solutions closer in time do get a little more amped but not always. We'll see. But I can totally understand where Lee Goldberg was coming from. WX/PT

Following radar the models and surface obs another hour. WX/PT

I said it could. Now I believe it won't. WX

Dynamics are out over the ocean. Guidance never showed any. We need big flakes gonna be tough to get them. WX/PT

Those areas have been over-performing for 2 years or more. I think this time will be no exception. When I say there's a good chance this could over perform I'm not referring to all locations. There are different forces at play here. You have the signs that the coastal will indirectly enhance the snowfall rates here and colder air will also squeeze out a little more moisture. But there is also a drier punch of air which will move in from the west and the clipper moving across the northern tier will be trying to kick this system out to the east. So we just have to see what forces win out. The heaviest precipitation on the guidance was always late this afternoon and early this evening. To that extent nothing has changed. But this is NOT a big storm for us. Maybe we can squeeze out another inch or two some places another three like the north shore of eastern LI. WX/PT

Radar, temperatures, and the HRRR model which has been a little faster moving elements than is actually happening but otherwise accurate. WX/PT

I think there's a good chance. WX/PT