Santa Claus
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Everything posted by Santa Claus
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I'm just seriously tripped out by the idea I'm too stupid to find a naked swirl on GOES EAST. I mean people joke about being triggered but I just spent 10 minutes looking at screens trying to find what he's talking about, and because I can't find it I feel even dumber.- 1,530 replies
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Can you take a picture of something to show me? I swear I am looking at GOES EAST shots thinking this thing looks decent and your post is throwing me for a loop.
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The outflow looks nice and sharp especially to the northeast. It's a small storm with a nice compact CDO, there's some very robust convection happening. It looks pretty organized right now. I think this is a decent Category 1 tomorrow morning and might surprise us in its strengthening, a low-end Cat 2 is not out of the question if the shear can stay easy on it. These small storms can be so unpredictable. I wonder about the rainfall totals up here this week. Even with baroclinic effects broadening the storm, this thing really is small. I don't expect big rainfall totals too far from the center, that's for sure. Quietly, this is becoming a massive tropical season. August, September, could be a real adventure for the United States.
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Don't write it too far off as shear forecasts were a bit more generous this weekend into early next week and again, there's hurricane soup in front of it. But man it looks bad. Might just get picked up as a big warm front by Monday.
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The robust southwest convection might favor center relocation there and a more likely FL hit. Central dense overcast seems to be developing. Or not, I don't know anything, I just post what I feel until someone tells me why I'm wrong. I'm trying though.
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Looking pretty spicy now... oooh. Nice concentrated center to the southwest. Undeniable organization and strengthening happening.
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I'm thinking a path kinda like Matthew until it gets picked up in the current between the trough and ridge. SC landfall. Looking a little better organized. Tonight could get really interesting with all the bathwater it's sitting on. If it can stay organized enough to exclude all the dry low-level air in front of it, anyway.
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I think it'll hug near the coast and stay offshore. We've seen that kind of behavior before. The convection fires up over the ocean, so the center gets pulled to it, at least that's my interpretation of what happens.
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The shear has relaxed a bit in front of it and the forecasts look favorable for muted upper-level shear where it's likely to be this weekend. Shear further relaxes Monday.
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Pretty trashy-looking system tbh.
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Just tons of time left for any number of solutions. I haven't seen a lot of talk about potential future interaction with the trough over the eastern U.S. A few models did have some kind of capture and a crash into the Carolinas.
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I think rainfall will be relatively muted for a TC. The models have the storm screaming up the coast. Just not enough time for bigger rains.
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Looking pretty solid right now. One thing about the potential storm surge into LI is that many of these models think this thing is going to be absolutely flying up the coast. From what I've read the higher the forward speed, the higher the storm surge height, but the less overall land mass that gets flooded.
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What kind of interaction might it have with that deep trough? It might just get captured.
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There's a lot of sheer over the east coast and coastal waters. Something to watch
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The relative consistency of the Euro is becoming concerning. EDIT: to clarify, the track. I hate myself for asking this but there's no chance of blocking and a Sandy event is there? We have had some unusual flow patterns this summer, cutoff and retrograding lows.
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If I had a choice where my taxes went I'd give 100% to the National Weather Service. If I had Elon Musk bucks I'd be building all kinds of radars and satellites to make GOES-16 look like a Tinker Toy. You'd be counting how many birds were trapped in Fay's circulation. You'd be able to identify them by specie. shit I wish I was rich.
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Monsieur, before you throw in your napkin, can I not beg you to have one little mint? If you're not full, don't worry, looks like this is a 30-course meal. Even after this invalid is rolled into the asylum he'll be exclaiming through drool about how Senator Little Marco Rubio of Alabahama is sad, weak, and failing for letting Daffy Dorian destroy his island. Some of the words in the tweet will be capitalized, but no one can say for sure which.
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At what point do people (who haven't yet done so) have an epiphany that this guy is not well in the head, and that he is a danger as long as he is in power? He's got NOAA compromising its integrity in service of his unlimited ego and stupidity. How the f is that acceptable to people? I cannot grasp that. And how do you function as a rational, viable person if you are incapable of a "my bad"? I can't wait to see how long this stupid shit goes on. Weeks? How is that possible?
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President Shitpost. This is bonkers.
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that bull's ass tells it like it is lol
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Yeah maybe make less excuses for grown men who say stupid things and attempt to cover themselves with vain, petty theatrics that debase our hobby and its science in the bargain. Maybe cut that.
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Nah
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Watching Ryan Maue defend this sharpie bullshit is actually more entertaining than the sharpie bullshit itself. He has a PhD.
