Santa Claus

i'm guessing 98L is Wilfred and 99L becomes Subtropical Storm Alpha. according to FSU phase space diagrams the GFS likes 99L for some tropical development and gets it down to around 990 mb before it swings towards Portugal.

super smoky. it was gone before it dipped below the horizon. i'm thinking the better shots will be the sunrises, i guess there's usually less particulates in the air in the morning than the afternoon due to diurnal heating and churned up wind currents. idk though.

everyone interested should be on sunset watch tonight, with the smoke in the air it could be a good one. unfortunately there doesn't look to be much in the way of cloud cover, but i'm guessing there will be a big, bright reddish sun. maybe you'll have a chance to peak a sunspot if they're active.

oh what a day. partly cloudy, 72/54, nice breeze.

i haven't been paying any attention to wildfire season, and then i look up and california is burning down i feel like the world is ending, i'm exhausted by 2020. my mental health seriously eroded this year. i need to admit that to someone. burnt out and exhausted on every front. i cannot process anymore news. and the news will continue to get worse, much worse.

socked in with clouds in CNJ. weather.gov also has some kind of radar issue.

bust. :]

i really doubt we're done with the tropics, regardless of this model. the atmosphere is just dumping spin-ups one after the other. luckily Laura was an outlier and most of them are trash.

chances look good that this Saturday will be the third pristine Saturday in a row.

full disclosure: i was about to say "i don't see what you're seeing, i see the two TS and a lemon." before saying something stupid i decided to click around and discovered there's a 5 day NHC forecast graphical. been following weather my entire life, had literally no idea. don't think i ever saw it posted here. alright now that we all agree i'm not mentally competent to stand trial, i have a question. does the NHC have any kind of follow-up post-season analysis of storm intensity predictions? probably not? i ask because it seems like storms have historically over-performed, but i have no data, just a WAG from hanging around here too much. not looking to impinge the good work of the folks at the NHC, literally just curious. i recognize the amazing strides in weather prediction made in the last 20 years and i'm glad we have accurate tropical forecasting at all, especially with the added wild card of global warming.

the northern line out by Lancaster looks pretty spicy and i wouldn't be surprised to see the watch extended northward or for a SVR watch to go up for us.

us = the CNJ people i'm talking to

NAM actually hammers us FWIW

Same folks keep winning over and over again. I hope us mopes in CNJ at least get some rain out of this one.

if nothing else, the hyperactivity of this tropical season looks like it will continue, and we need to be aware of the steering pattern forecasts. forget the 240hr pressure maps from the Kazakhstan model or w/e. the lows we've seen so far are very aggressive in taking what they can get and running with it, and Africa is going to be pumping waves for a few months. buckle up and wear a helmet you nerds.

i have scratchcards to sell you

If I had a choice where my taxes went I'd give 100% to the National Weather Service. If I had Elon Musk bucks I'd be building all kinds of radars and satellites to make GOES-16 look like a Tinker Toy. You'd be counting how many birds were trapped in Fay's circulation. You'd be able to identify them by specie. shit I wish I was rich.

Monsieur, before you throw in your napkin, can I not beg you to have one little mint? If you're not full, don't worry, looks like this is a 30-course meal. Even after this invalid is rolled into the asylum he'll be exclaiming through drool about how Senator Little Marco Rubio of Alabahama is sad, weak, and failing for letting Daffy Dorian destroy his island. Some of the words in the tweet will be capitalized, but no one can say for sure which.

At what point do people (who haven't yet done so) have an epiphany that this guy is not well in the head, and that he is a danger as long as he is in power? He's got NOAA compromising its integrity in service of his unlimited ego and stupidity. How the f is that acceptable to people? I cannot grasp that. And how do you function as a rational, viable person if you are incapable of a "my bad"? I can't wait to see how long this stupid shit goes on. Weeks? How is that possible?

President Shitpost. This is bonkers.

that bull's ass tells it like it is lol

Yeah maybe make less excuses for grown men who say stupid things and attempt to cover themselves with vain, petty theatrics that debase our hobby and its science in the bargain. Maybe cut that.

Nah

Watching Ryan Maue defend this sharpie bullshit is actually more entertaining than the sharpie bullshit itself. He has a PhD.

It's what happens when you give a child a shitload of money and no discipline, and then he grows up, gets a brain tumor, and becomes president