Santa Claus

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m going all in on 90L. Bathtub water, decreasing shear, unstable air mass, and location location location. SW gulf is a hotspot for quick spin ups (orientation of geography?). Given the well organized look seen this morning would not surprise me that any additional increase would lead to formation of a TD by tonight. I think 90L wins the race for “W” and I think it could also become our next hurricane. Going to be a painfully slow mover and since no vortex exists yet models have taken up almost every inch of the western gulf for possible tracks. I personally think a long northward trek into Texas is most likely, but will need a defined coc before we know anything on that front

that would be a real coup for 90L to spin up that quickly and nab Wilfred from the other INVESTs.

2 hours ago, JoshSnow said:

The sun will be turned to darkness and the moon to blood before the coming of the great and glorious day of the Lord.

tell the lord to put out the f'n fires already

i'm guessing 98L is Wilfred and 99L becomes Subtropical Storm Alpha.  according to FSU phase space diagrams the GFS likes 99L for some tropical development and gets it down to around 990 mb before it swings towards Portugal.

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Smoky sun this evening.

super smoky.  it was gone before it dipped below the horizon.  i'm thinking the better shots will be the sunrises, i guess there's usually less particulates in the air in the morning than the afternoon due to diurnal heating and churned up wind currents.  idk though.

everyone interested should be on sunset watch tonight, with the smoke in the air it could be a good one.  unfortunately there doesn't look to be much in the way of cloud cover, but i'm guessing there will be a big, bright reddish sun.  maybe you'll have a chance to peak a sunspot if they're active.

oh what a day.  partly cloudy, 72/54, nice breeze.

i haven't been paying any attention to wildfire season, and then i look up and california is burning down

i feel like the world is ending, i'm exhausted by 2020.  my mental health seriously eroded this year.  i need to admit that to someone.  burnt out and exhausted on every front.  i cannot process anymore news.  and the news will continue to get worse, much worse.

socked in with clouds in CNJ.

weather.gov also has some kind of radar issue.

bust.

:]

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

i really doubt we're done with the tropics, regardless of this model.  the atmosphere is just dumping spin-ups one after the other.  luckily Laura was an outlier and most of them are trash.

chances look good that this Saturday will be the third pristine Saturday in a row.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

full disclosure: i was about to say "i don't see what you're seeing, i see the two TS and a lemon."  before saying something stupid i decided to click around and discovered there's a 5 day NHC forecast graphical.  been following weather my entire life, had literally no idea.  don't think i ever saw it posted here.

alright now that we all agree i'm not mentally competent to stand trial, i have a question.  does the NHC have any kind of follow-up post-season analysis of storm intensity predictions?  probably not?  i ask because it seems like storms have historically over-performed, but i have no data, just a WAG from hanging around here too much.

not looking to impinge the good work of the folks at the NHC, literally just curious.  i recognize the amazing strides in weather prediction made in the last 20 years and i'm glad we have accurate tropical forecasting at all, especially with the added wild card of global warming.

that 3K NAM seemed to do really well but like you said the radar had more bark than bite.

the northern line out by Lancaster looks pretty spicy and i wouldn't be surprised to see the watch extended northward or for a SVR watch to go up for us.

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's the 3K NAM not the HRRR.

And it only has significant rain for the Southern half of the sub forum.

us = the CNJ people i'm talking to

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Was thinking we would have gotten more rain then has actually fallen since Saturday. Looks like we will be in the skunk zone for today

NAM actually hammers us FWIW

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Same folks keep winning over and over again.  I hope us mopes in CNJ at least get some rain out of this one.

if nothing else, the hyperactivity of this tropical season looks like it will continue, and we need to be aware of the steering pattern forecasts.  forget the 240hr pressure maps from the Kazakhstan model or w/e.  the lows we've seen so far are very aggressive in taking what they can get and running with it, and Africa is going to be pumping waves for a few months.  buckle up and wear a helmet you nerds.

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Para has been consistent 

i have scratchcards to sell you

Just now, winterwx21 said:

The problem is the line is heading ESE. So even if it holds together, it will likely miss NYC to the south.

 

All I had here today was sprinkles. The heavy rain event from the remnants of Laura was a bust, but for a few days there certainly were signs that the worst of it would miss to the south. Not a huge suprise that we got nothing.

for all the potential this week was enormously disappointing.

well these squall lines look like nice consolation prizes if Middlesex County doesn't get a 7-10 split.

and i imagine there's a real nice air change behind them, so if nothing else i just want this swamp air to clear out.

Sunday looks gorgeous, with strong cold air advection behind the post-tropical redevelopment of Laura.  80 degree high, 20 mph NW wind, should be relatively dry.  Good day for a hike but maybe a bit muddy out there.

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This afternoon, the temperature rose into the middle 80s in New York City under mainly sunny skies. Four photos from The New York Botanical Garden:

don't know what glass you're using but if you find yourself in the market for a nice macro lens, check out the 100mm Tokina--stupid sharp, great mechanics, built like a tank, and cheap.  my absolute favorite lens.

you guys are calling this a little early IMO.

in any case i'm going to get my run in now in case it does rain, l8r sk8ers.

1 minute ago, JoshM said:

I love storm chasing, but when it comes to Laura, I'm good. Wind doesn't scare me, storm surge and drowning does.

above all else i am trying not to die