MississippiWx

Green sky here just outside of Hattiesburg. Very spooky. 

2 minutes ago, Derek30 said:

Have an inkling that Nacogdoches storm in E TX might do something as it encounters increasing MLCAPE in LA and eventually S MS. Seems to be pretty close to the warm front at the moment.

S MS seems to be the sweet spot. Already seeing 2000-3000 MLCAPE in a good chunk of the MOD risk area. Bassfield and Laurel unfortunately appear to be in the crosshairs once again

Large area of clearing/sun in South Louisiana into Mississippi. Instability should be no issue. 

Coastal convection this morning is interesting. It’s probably not enough to limit moisture transport today, but wondering if that’s the reason the HRRR has been showing lower dew points in the warm sector later today.

14 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Similar to the HRRR depictions. 

With regard to the western half of the risk area, pay close attention to how convection in East Texas evolves over the next 1-3 hours as it approaches western Louisiana. Even with a messy storm mode, you can get embedded tornadic supercells, but it may temper the threat somewhat. 

Yeah, as a resident of South Ms, I’m hoping the clusters get too messy and close to one another. However, I will be concerned if they can remain semi-discrete. 

3k NAM is coming in much different in regard to location of thunderstorms. It shows several storms/clusters across the warm sector in South MS/LA. 
 

One high risk at a time, Bob. 

Seeing rumors of high risk upgrade here in Southeast Mississippi for tomorrow. I must say that is a shock. Instability seems to be greater than last week's event, but magnitude of shear seems to be less. While the total number of tornadoes may be lower than last week, the SPC may be thinking a more concentrated area of strong tornadoes is on the table. Color me unexcited. 

6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Will the junky convection over parts of AL and MS do anything to hinder instability it that region..seems pretty widespread.

Edit: Actually SVR storm near Jackson, MS.

I am in South Mississippi and currently looking at the sun. I really don't believe instability will be an issue for the MDT area.