WEATHER53

CAB time over and soon it’s what actually occurring to sw . 11am-4pm Sun likely tells the tale of either 1-2” mixed slop or 7” of snow and see what happens later. . I don’t know about the myth that because it’s Nina then low pressures can’t be strong. Mostly Nina just prevents them from ever existing to begin with

Even the 534 line is south of us so cold air drag down will be very real

It would help greatly if we could put some accumulation down between 7 -10am Sunday.

It may be temps that become critical as we have focused on neg tilt and other factors. 33/34 from 11-4pm won’t allow significant accumulation around DC unless heavy. 0.5-.75 ph rates won’t achieve equal accumulation. 1”ph rates would allow about 0.25- 0.5” ph accumulation . 32/33 improves and 31/32 is very good

Knickerbocker

I think DCA was dumbly low again at 18 while all others were 22-24”

It’s fine to admit you flat out don’t know when you don’t. They are honest about that. WhenI said it will all come down to 6 hours before onset I was not kidding

Hey what did you decide to do ?

Lake Effect King still participate?

I have not talked to Marcus in like12 years . Have you?

You depressos babbling about the cave is worthless. We are here to witness winter weather circumstances and not the end of such. It just didn’t caved so now onto the next cave?? Shut up.!

That’s about 8” in 6 hours

The”what’s the alternative” has never worked for me. That’s what real science does-finds its way to the correct resolution. You have said you enjoy looking at the projected examples. . I enjoy correct, logically assembled information. Predicting a monster snowstorm,or zero , Before the vital factor has even hit the west coast is ridiculous. It can’t be done so why produce such? And for a technical suggestion, that 500 mb vorticity chart is a stringy mess like a human genome chart . You enjoy the lead up while I enjoy the nowcasts of an event. The lead up don’t mean much when it is so incredibly erratic that’s it’s an admission of “it can’t be predicted”

I would never pay a dime for the info. They should never attempt any forecast until whatever it is that is supposed to ignite all this is at Least 1/3rd of the way across the nation. The cover all bases is very real and highly suspect

About 6 hours before onset.

Honestly that talk like models showing 0-30” and an admission that the best science just has no real idea and won’t . I’m glad they admitted this .

Pointing toward cape may

I’m just to this one at 105 and that’s 15 hours at 0.5-.75” per hour

That high is near perfection

Last night it was game over and late this afternoon it’s over a foot. This waffling CAB will continue and in this day and age we really don’t have an 80% or better likelihood until about 6 hours before onset. I too do enjoy looking at the massive numbers but it’s not a forecast and is an example of 30-40 outcomes each of which have a 3% chance of occurring. I think increased Ai input with analog basing will improve this random, patchy example giving . We pretty much all know what Can happen, how about what is Most Likely To Hsppen?

Spell the title correctly or it’s a curse

Random pop out of sun as I’m at 44 and BWI 43 while Andrews is 55.

So from 0-10” once again which will score a confirmation. The hope for AI is that there is some historical analog data in it of set ups and outcomes. Pretending it’s all math and physics is why we have all this erratic behavior. Low pressure systems around mid Atlantic in winter are just too difficult for conventional models. AI and outcome analog data is the proof in the pudding and hope for the future

Don’t know what king model showed but differences this time is whether or not each one of the models each run shows that high to our north.Yes=Snow

Yes. Part of what helped 2026 was three -20/-21 values and especially its “mildest” day was -12 or -14 . All the others tended to have 1 or 2 single digit minuses