Roon

All of that being said - both GFS and the V3 are starting to come back West a bit.

Just now, Baum said:

to debate an aspect of a discussion it is best to be cognizant of the point the person your debating is trying to make. In this case the term "big river" was in fact pointing out that systems since mid January in fact have had a tendency to put on the left turn signal at the Mississippi river. I used that geographical marker as a rough estimate. By no means was I stating it had an impact on the movement or aspect of the storm. I was in fa

Noted - Short smart ass comments do about as much good as facepalm emoji's I would suggest :).

2 minutes ago, Minnesota_storms said:

MPX AFD:

 

No no no - its quite clearly a myth and those guys at NOAA don't know what they are talking about. Its all about the big river.

12 minutes ago, Baum said:

that's a myth. Plenty more parameters go into a storms track than the idea that raped deepening pulls it northwest. That said, the pattern for the middle west the past 30 days is for them to cut hard once east of the big river. See nothing to change that....

Well then its a "myth" supported by CIPS analogs. There are a lot of parameters that go into everything - but there is nothing about "the big river" that would cause them to cut hard....unless there is someone telling them to hang a hard right at the big river...I suppose that could be happening? :).

Rapid deepening and being so negatively tilted usually means a more Northern track.....don't get too excited about the moves SE this far out.

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Can envision the models over-amping this storm out in this time frame.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the storm a little weaker/further southeast as time goes on.  

GFS V3 is pushing the big snows further north on the 12z. I would expect the storm to trend weaker - but not sure about the S/E call.