jm1220

More SE ridging this year-good as long as it doesn’t go wild and link up with the NAO block or otherwise send every storm to Buffalo. Here we need some ridging to make storms turn the corner, but as we all know Nina’s often promote the wild SE ridge. Of course any -PNA makes it worse.

We may be entering an era where we root for the +NAO because the SE ridge can routinely link up with a Greenland block. That obviously ruins any chance on the East coast for the major cities. But some SE ridge is good since it helps storms turn the corner.

If the low can close off and dig west of us, we’ll get a moist fetch off the ocean. If not, probably cloudy and nasty.

I mean it’s very clear how you can see the connection in the pattern progressions-the warm W PAC drives a faster Pacific jet, that pushes the ridge/trough orientation out of a favorable position in the East or knocks the western ridge down altogether, which means the pattern can’t amplify (suppression) or amplification in the wrong place (out to sea or cutter). Last winter we saw it repeat time and time again. With a better Pacific, NYC would’ve hit 50” since we did get cold intervals that could’ve supported snow. And by the East I mean south of I-90 to north of DC. SWFEs can deliver plenty of snow to I-90 and N, and suppressed crap can work for DC. Not here. SWFE can be okay here once in a blue moon-we had one decent SWFE in Feb but I would never bet on them for NYC.

Hoping that continues for sure. Hopefully we get a few more recurving typhoons to keep that water off Japan cooling down.

Down to 50 here.

I can’t think of any Nina season in my life growing up on LI that was any good without at least one decent Dec event. 2017-18 had the 1/4 blizzard that counted as our early event.

Much needed here for sure. Thanks as always for the analysis!

Definitely an orange tint to it tonight.

Trending NW to favor NJ and the Hudson Valley again. Stunned I tell you!

0.5” or so. Whatever helps.

More yawn.

Yawn. That is all.

Yep, even more impressive how fall lasts for 8 months now!

Actual water droplets falling from the sky!

Quite nippy this morning. @nycwintermust be drowning in hoodies.

We had our August deluge on parts of LI and CT last year but after-dry as a bone like this year.

Yep it was in my western sky. It was definitely bright for a split second.

Saw a shooting star about 20min ago in the western sky.

The W/N Pacific warm piss pool of disaster is alive and well. Until that goes away my hopes for winter are about zilch (maybe some ridiculous combination of other factors can overcome the Pacific jet here and there but we've seen so many times how it all gets literally blown away, torn apart, etc and we get suppressed crap or a cutter or way too late bloomer). Even the strong 23-24 Nino couldn't really overcome it, it just added STJ juice to the insane Pac jet. September is by far the best weather month here. Hopefully we get a synoptic system or two to give us all some needed rain and otherwise warm and dry weather. Today's just glorious.

I’m thinking where I am there’s another couple 90 degree days left, but we’re beginning our first step down towards autumn. With this cooler pattern some leaves might start changing soon in the Adirondacks/Green/Whites etc.

Flooding on Fire Island and the Hamptons, and water up to the dunes elsewhere. Jones Beach looks pretty rough. High tide looks to be coinciding with the worst of the waves. We’re lucky this turned out to sea.

0.4” or so of drizzle. Get this gunk out of here.

Moderate coastal flooding expected along the south shore tomorrow evening. Definitely enough to flood the low lying spots in Freeport, Lindenhurst, Island Park etc.

Meso models hinted at it yesterday. I-90 special. These very rarely if ever work out IMBY. Somehow they always nudge north and west. I guess 12-15 more hours of mist that gets the total to 0.5”.