TomAtkins

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It will come down to the trough . Maria will come west if the trough is slower than modeled. Still some time but as of right now Maria looks ots.

But again - is there anything pushing her anywhere close to landfall? Not really. The ULL is weak. The ridge isnt in the right place (its more under the ridge as it builds back than on the periphery). 

Like I said yesterday - there will be just enough model uncertainty to keep weenies hoping for a landfall, but no realistic shot at one. I mean just to put a fine point on it - the NHC track right now has Maria about as close to Bermuda as the Outer Banks. We are now at the point where landfall is 4-5 days away if its going to happen, and it would take a huge shift by both the Euro and GFS which are showing basically the same solution, to get a landfall. 5% maybe at best.

12 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

So you're telling me somehow in 10 years you've managed to completely study the effects of cyclone interaction with a concept that wasn't even named before the 2000's? I trust the good people at NOAA but not that much.

I'm saying that Jose will be weakened before Maria gets close enough for Fujiwara effects to really matter. Jose sticking around as long as it did has done what needed to be done to likely keep Maria out to sea - it weakened the ridge. What it does after that likely wont matter. Any landfall would rely on the interaction wit hthe upper low over the south east (which you can see pulls Maria back a little in the GFS, but not really enough), plus a major slowing of the trough coming through.

There is just nothing about this setup which says that there will be major westward movement once the storm starts to recurve, Jose or not.

6 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

This is wrong. The high could bridge with the high to the east of Jose. The low could advance quicker pulling Maria into the coast. Jose could avoid weakening enough to allow the bridge. There is no way to say its safe to say anything before sat night. 66% chance out to sea 33. whatever into south/north carolina/virginia. 

All of that happens and Maria is still too far from shore to make the move. The NHC cone gives you a good idea. Its not even close to have a US landfall even within the cone. The ensembles only have a few members making landfall. We are now within the time frame at 6 or so days out, that the better models would likely be showing such a massive change in course.

Realistically, hurricanes in Maria's current position with its short term heading just dont hit the East Coast. 

4 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I can tell this is going to be aggravating for next week but will probably end up doing what most TCs do at that latitude- recurve.

 

In all likelihood it wont be close. There will be just enough ensemble members that show a land fall for the next few days to keep weenies on board, but it wont come any closer than Jose did to actually hitting any part of the US mainland. The models (and ensembles) are being pretty consistent at this point. There is nothing pushing Maria west into the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic, and eventually a trough will kick it out to sea, likely well before it comes close to New England.

6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

No it's actually scientists who proved there is a connection by analyzing TCs in the Pacific and quakes in Taiwan and also analyzing the tremors following the Virginia quake of 2011 which happened near the time of Irene.  People etched in their own ways are just out of touch of the latest research.

 

As they say, science advances one funeral at a time.

The GFS has had similar solutions - either Maria follows Jose out to sea, or Jose dies, but a trough kicks Maria out to sea. Either way, with Jose pretty much assured to stick around at this point, landfall seems unlikely given the set up. You would really need a Sandy level left hook, or for Jose to weaken much faster than forecast at this point.

I'm not saying it wont be bad. only that the devastation wont be as total as it was in Dominica, or places like Barbuda was for Irma. The difference in damage between say Cat 3 winds and Cat 5 is pretty substantial.

11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

PR's economy, which is already in a debt crisis, is going to be devastated by this. We will certainly see wobbles from her going forward, but the confidence that San Juan --a city with 400k people-- will see the RFQ is high and growing...

San Juan's saving grace is that the storm will have to traverse quite a bit of land to get there. You saw what tiny Dominica did to the storm. PR will weaken it a good bit before it hits San Juan proper.

7 hours ago, cmasty1978 said:

are you the tom atkins of erie weather fame?

if so, you inspired me way back in the day to get into the wx hobby.  thanks.

LOL. Nope. Nor am I D list horror film actor Tom Atkins. I'm Tom Atkins , Rutgers grad and satellite meteorology scientist at NOAA.

16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Trough then kicks Maria and what's left to Jose finally OTS

If only. If you look at hour 240 it looks like the remnant low of Jose gets missed by the trough that takes Maria out to sea.