You can see the GFS amplifies the ridge over the west coast during the 36-48hr period while the Euro/CMC/UKMET keep it flatter. This is the likely cause of the GFSs stronger further north solution.
The rainband headed for Orlando later tonight. Hopefully the heaviest part misses to the north, but it does seem to be having a hard time advancing north on radar.
Modeling didn't do a bad job. The tornado threat was overlooked by a lot of people who were distracted with things like ERCs, Recon passes, ADT numbers, and nitpicking every run of every model.