Lets hope this happens,...

I can dream...

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Weathernerds.org. is awesome  check it out

Google Earth has Spaghetti plots...

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't believe the GFS 18z run gets the full compliment of data,... and is in part initialized off the first 6 hourly solution of the 12z guidance to fill any holes in the initialization.

That was the case up through 5 years ago - Walter Drag told me that some four or five years ago.  Not sure if that's till the case.. 

IF so,  ...that makes it about as good as any other ensemble member; granted, that doesn't mean things can't exactly evolve, but the problem is, the 12z was really only step two along a trend - so it appears. That means that the holes were plugged by a solution in flux to begin with...

Somewhere in that complexity exists the notion not to trust this solution is really in keeping with said trend because it's based on a melange of estimates and computations combined.

If it gets the full compliment of original and unique sampling... I still wouldn't be certain that as the mechanics enters the NW Territory from out of the Alaska sector ...if it's just not temporarily lost a bit. 

I'm still putting money on the biggest threat being SE zones... but also would not be shocked if this till gets farther NW in the end.

"Is the GFS model really worse than the ECMWF?" OK, I went there. Forecasters amateur and professional have long-claimed the U.S. GFS model was more inaccurate than the ECWMF. The graph above proves it, and it is the basis for the business model of the ECWMF's institution, which sells the data at exorbitant prices (the GFS data is free -- a quarter of a million dollars will buy you the rights to use redistribute the ECMWF 25-day forecast, but not their weekly or monthly forecasts which go as far as a year out). Although that makes for a compelling reason to keep their secrets to themselves, they have recently started working with the U.S. government to help determine what's wrong with the GFS.

Last month, a breakthrough was discovered: When the GFS is run with the ECWMF Initialization data (see above), the accuracy improves dramatically (you can read the AMS presentation here). Unfortunately, implementing that is not as easy as you'd think - outside of the cost of using the ECWMF data, it only runs twice a day, so the GFS would no longer be able to run at 06Z & 18Z (midnight & noon). I suppose one other option is that we fix our initialization data, but I haven't heard much about that option taking shape. It would probably be a big undertaking. In any case, I'm thrilled that we now know what's wrong with the GFS.

Separate from the model accuracy, there is a movement afoot, headed by the American Meteorological Society (AMS as mentioned above) and involving our Elliot Abrams (PREMIUM | PRO), to make weather forecasts (derived from those models) better and more user-friendly. Elliot is co-chairing the unit with Dr. Paul Hirschberg, chief of staff to NOAA National Weather Service Director Jack Hayes. I believe this work is very important and you can read about their ideas and progress in an AMS report here.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097

Why the European Weather Model Remains King Over National Weather Service's Prediction Tool

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/European-Weather-Model-National-Weather-Service-365163381.html

Frikkin awesome to see what is happening just off the NC coast.  Love the south to north motion and explosion of cloud tops.  BTW if you didn't know, there is an awesome pinned thread in the NYC subforum with every conceivable radar, satellite pressure falls, etc link.

Many maps and images here for upcoming storm:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42006-storm-tracking-images/