Cajun Thunder

Fastest turnaround I've ever seen for a NWS assessment...4/27 report isn't even out yet.

Many big statements in this one. Quotes that the warning system (and outdoor sirens) "have lost a degree of credibility"...and proposes a framework for basically a new warning system all-together.

Another major proposal...implementing a new 88D VCP that allows for one-minute 0.5* slices...

The quick turnaround is likely because this assessment was done on a regional level (Central Region) and not on a national level.

I'm still looking for the NOAA/NWS assessment from the above news article. NWS Springfield was no help in tracking it down.

Amazing story of a 16 year old that is just now getting to come home after being in the hospital. He also got 'the fungus' and only had a 5-10% chance to live. He had a chest wound so bad that doctors could see his exposed lungs, liver and his heart beating through it.

http://www.kmbc.com/...295/detail.html

Also, some new footage (of Wal-greens at 20th and main looking at the back of the tornado) in the trailer to the video that the Piotrowski's took that day. Their DVD is 90ish minutes long and is expected to be released Sept 24-27th for $24.99 I believe.

If you are looking for the full NOAA/NWS assessment, it is WAY too early for it to be in final form, based on previous assessments. I'm pretty sure there are multiple assessments going on at this time. If I had to hazard an unofficial, no inside information guess, it would probably close to the end of the year, if not a little longer, before you see a final version. Turn-around time on a service assessment, based on past history, seems to be about 8 months or so. The May 2010 Nashville flood assessment (the last one published) was published in January 2011.

Very important line from the above article:

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Although I'd like to see separate service assessments from 4/27 and Joplin, I definitely could see them clumping all the severe storms this spring into one, especially since there are at least four disasters (4/14-16, 4/27, Joplin, and the MS River Floods) from this spring that could be assessed.

It's my understanding that Joplin IS a separate service assessment from 4/27. That doesn't preclude some of the findings being similar in both assessments.

I'd like to see a sounding for northern Illinois the afternoon the F5 tornado hit Plainfield Illinois. There had to be a lot of instability that day, as I recall reports saying how hot and humid it was. The storm moved southeast, so it probably attained some enhanced SRH, so mid and upper winds may not have been too impressive. Still would be an interesting sounding I think.

That first post in the thread is as close to a proximity sounding for Plainfield as you are going to get. The sounding is from the day of the Plainfield tornado...and Peoria is the closest sounding site.

I understand that infrastructure was compromised from morning convection, but this is my opportunity to preach preparedness. Many large events are often preceded by morning convection, some of which is severe and does damage. Especially with an event as well forecast as this, I don't think there should be thousands of people being caught off guard. A $20 weather radio with back up batteries can go a long way. For every inconvenience of being woken up in the middle of the night for a false alarm, there is a life saved and that's worth it.

I know it pains me to hear these stories about "no warning" when in reality it was not receiving a warning. I can't imagine how it feels for the many, many warning forecasters out there who issued good warnings but had people perish anyway. I have already heard some disturbing reactions from the higher ups in DC, and it will be very interesting to see how the service assessment plays out. Will it be a blame game or will we actually figure out some new ways to reach people and disseminate the message.

I've been in that position before, although not this time, as it just missed our CWA. Simply, it's heartbreaking to issue good warnings with plenty of lead time, and still see people perish. My heart and prayers go out to those directly affected by the tornadoes...but also those that provided the excellent warning service. I'm positive that the service assessment will show just how well these professionals did their jobs. I also recognize the amazing service provided by some (or most) facets of the media, especially, but not limited to, James Spann and his crew at ABC33/40 in Birmingham/Tuscaloosa, and those at The Weather Channel. A very loud "Job Well Done" to those folks. Undoubtedly, even with the horrible casualties that did occur, many lives were saved Wednesday that probably would have perished in a similar situation 30 or 40 years ago. Just from what I've seen from afar over the last 2 days, had this occurred 30 or 40 years ago, I fear we'd be talking about a death toll 3 or 4 times higher than what we've seen.

By my count, at least 27 fatalities in Mississippi, just from LSR entries.

Memphis CWA

3 in Chickasaw County (SE of Houston)

12 in Monroe County (4 at New Wren, 8 at Smithville)

Jackson CWA

4 in Clarke County (Snell)

1 in Choctaw County (near Eupora)

2 in Webster County (Mathiston)

3 in Kemper County (Nanih Waiya)

2 in Jasper County (Louin)

WFO Memphis had 15 fatalities in their CWA this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

933 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON..

...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..

0310 PM TORNADO 3 SE HOUSTON 33.87N 88.96W

04/27/2011 CHICKASAW MS EMERGENCY MNGR *** 3 FATAL, 7 INJ *** EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 3

FATALITIES AND 7 INJURIES. FATALITY AND INJURY NUMBERS

ARE PRELIMINARY.

0332 PM TORNADO NEW WREN 33.97N 88.62W

04/27/2011 MONROE MS EMERGENCY MNGR *** 4 FATAL *** EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 4 PRELIMINARY

FATALITIES AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL INJURIES

UNKNOWN.

0344 PM TORNADO SMITHVILLE 34.07N 88.40W

04/27/2011 MONROE MS AMATEUR RADIO *** 8 FATAL *** EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS MAJOR DAMAGE IN

SMITHVILLE, MS. UNKNOWN INJURIES. FATALITIES ARE

PRELIMINARY AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

BORGHOFF