ZackH

Sunday is starting to look pretty fun somewhere in central or northern SD... Will just happen to be there on my way home from a camping trip...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Here's the locations of the three tornadoes in ND today, which were around 2110 to 2120z. The plot is the composite reflectivity at 2128z

Noticed at work this morning that the HRRR had a pretty decent signal for longer lived supercells and marginal tornadoes today. I thought it was a little too bullish but ended up doing pretty well. Some of the couplets suggested a stronger tornado or two.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

11 hours ago, andyhb said:

Well that verified nicely.

Was quite a fun day... did the forecast in the morning and went chasing in the evening. Missed the biggie tornado as it was just too far, but did catch the tornado southwest of Wawrick, ND from a distance... also watched it rope out. Just got crappy cell phone pics as it was so far and I just had my wide angle lens. Quincy was quite a bit closer from his pics I saw on Twitter. Still though, the rest of the day provided some of the most photogenic storms/landscapes I've seen in quite a while. Also, watching the updrafts from new cells going up and breaking the cap yesterday was something to behold. I'm not sure if I've ever seen development that rapidly visually. 

On 7/31/2016 at 9:57 PM, andyhb said:

Wednesday might an interesting day in ND and perhaps the southern Prairie provinces. Don't see too many shortwaves with 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streaks in August.

Looks like a day with some real potential. If we can get sufficient clearing and the NAM forecast dewpoints the environment/kinematics will be impressive. Would not be surprised if we end up with an enhanced.

Zack, I hope you're chasing tomorrow (or at least working at the office), could be a pretty significant event.

 

Sorry... somehow missed this! I was working a warning desk. I was mainly warning the QLCS later in the event. I got in right as Killdeer was getting smoked by huge hail in 75 mph winds. That storm created so much damage in Killdeer. Was a little surprised everything lined out so quickly and the tornado threat didn't materialize. 

I'm planning on it. A bit iffy with initiation, but can probably get something to go up in that environment. For those not familiar with the area, there's still daylight until at least 10 p.m. this time of the year, even later than that as you go north, so there's a good window...

Def call us if you see anything interesting! Spotter network reports don't always get through to us. And daylight till about 10:30 now

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'd definitely be chasing ND on Friday if I was out there. Moderate WSW flow aloft with strong instability and a well developed southerly LLJ feeding low 70s dewpoints into the area on both the GFS and NAM. Seems a couple of impulses ejecting ahead of the main upper low could provide enough forcing for ascent for CI.

Me too but I will be working instead. Be looking for my warnings!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Unreal the amount of severe weather up in Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas for this season. Another enhanced risk on the docket for today

it's actually been a pretty quiet up here thus far honestly.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If stuff does indeed pop in North Dakota on Saturday like the GFS suggests and has suggested for several runs, there will be quite a few nice storms along the warm front axis. Not really any obvious height falls, but a fairly deep low in eastern Montana and lead impulse. 

And now I'm even more concerned since the guys at the Air Force base still cannot figure out exactly what is wrong with the Minot radar. We will still have it available in standby mode, and will be able to turn it on when the storms start but it's impossible to say how long it will work.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Starting to grow really concerned about western North Dakota Monday afternoon and night. The parameter space along the warm front near the triple point is fairly impressive. In this area it looks like discrete supercells will be possible during the afternoon and then it looks possible that a large destructive MCS could race across central ND overnight along the anomalously strong cold front. Capping could help to really enhance this event. If the NAM solution is close to reality I am very interested to see how SPC evolves in the outlooks.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The NAM is painting a fun active night at work Monday night in eastern MT and into ND.

Looks like they got it fixed. KMBX is detecting a severe thunderstorm right now!

I am back in mid-Iowa. I could make tomorrow a storm chasing day in Nebraska, but I probably won't. CAPE will be very high along my travels on I-80 tomorrow, but I think storms may be very late in the day, such as at 03z. I hope to be done with the trip by 9:00 mountain time.

No not fixed... We just had it up because they AFB guys had a temp fix that may or may not have failed. Thus far it has held firm but after the event it will be shut down and properly repaired tomorrow.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I also placed this post over on Stormtrack:

 

FYI to anyone chasing today in ND or Canada. The KMBX radar is down and has been down all week. The part was supposed to be here Monday but it still hasn't arrived. The new estimate from the Air Force Base is now tomorrow. The good news is that we have the radar in stand by mode and will be able put it operational when the event starts. There's no telling how long it will last without the new part, however. But we cannot break it further by trying it tonight.

If you are chasing in the area and the radar goes out, we will need reliable spotter reports more than ever! I think I can speak for the GFK office in that regard as well.

 

Thanks!

Yes the 12z GFS is painting a much different, and perhaps more serious picture. I also like the NAM for the Friday around the KS/NE border.

For what its worth here are the CIPS analogs based on last nights 00z GFS.

 

Friday:

 

Saturday:

 

One thing I do like to see is that it is apparent that upper level support will be better this weekend. However... as noted... widespread precip is very probably going to be a major problem... especially the early morning convection. 

 

For what it's worth, there's the SREF sig tor ingredients for tomorrow at 00z (this image is run sensitive and will update, just FYI). Even though it's a controversial product, the 60% contours are fairly rare. Capping will be a possible issue, but SPC has upgraded much of central MN with a 30% hatched risk on the latest day 2 and the 12z NAM has a fairly large area in a sig tor parameter of 10+ by 03z Thursday.

Well, the parameter space is fairly impressive for Wednesday, but capping and little forcing will be an issue. But if a storm can get going, it could be a big one.

Looking ahead to midweek, the Euro is showing some severe potential from central North Dakota down into South Dakota for Wednesday... CAPE at or above 2,000 J/kg... 0-6km bulk shear in the 40-60 knot range... a weaker cap than yesterday's runs with some QPF breaking out late over the best environment. Decent helicity values as well (would like to see a bit more low level shear, though).  

 

GFS is a bit less progressive and seems to hint at the best threat Thursday and further south and east (however, there is also some Wednesday potential in SD as well)... there seems to be a nice axis of decent potential from central SD up into southeast ND and into MN. There's a nice belt of 0-1km helicity around 150 m2/s2 overlapping 2000+ CAPE and 40 knot bulk shear. Something to keep an eye on as we look ahead.