Xenia74

Then by all means give us a run down. That would be much more valuable to the forum here and could prompt some good discussion.

Ok I will post all my information later this evening. I am at work so I don't have the time to post everything at the moment but I will post my evidence later today

If you're gonna dare to say that something could approach 1974, then you should post some solid meteorological reasoning. Almost all of your posts were one or two sentenced and some variation on "I think this could be like 1974." That's not going to win you a lot of support around here.

Look back in the posts .....I was told there was a 1 in a million shot of me being correct......Well I must have been going on some type of data or I am one lucky SOB. I should play the lottery lol

There is no respect here for saying "I was correct" when you can't back up what you have to say with supporting evidence. If a person claims there will be some extreme event without supporting evidence and the event occurs, this person is technically correct but wrong by method. So, yes, it does make you less correct than someone that offers supporting evidence to back up a bullish claim.

Just because I didn't offer the evidence to you does not mean I didn't have it.....Number 2 No one asked for it...I was belittled and put down that I had no clue and was nuts...No one asked me for any information it was assumed I didnt have any

You would have been better off not posting anything. Don't come here at this point looking for vindication or sympathy. I don't think you will find it. There were several people that thought this was going to be real bad. The difference between them and you is that they have the proper tact while posting combined with a critical scientific breakdown of the potential.

Not looking for vindication or sympathy...I highly doubt you have the time for such nonsense. So to understand this correctly your "hating" on me just because of the lack of tact I use while posting and for the fact that I didn't breakdown my opinion scientifically for you?? That doesn't make me less correct you know...I am straight and to the point. Period.

There are a wide range of opinions a person might have if we mostly ignore probabilities. And there's a reason why, if these opinions happen to surface in our heads, we try to keep them to ourselves with a reminder to strive for better objectivity in the future.

Just please don't come back saying "I told you so" if this outbreak does by chance happen to rival '74.

No I told you so if it does happen......

Hopefully you can join us in tropical season, when every tropical storm north of the islands with be comparable to Andrew.

No one saw Jeane's U turn either

Hopefully you can join us in tropical season, when every tropical storm north of the islands with be comparable to Andrew.

See you think your being smart again..I lived in south Florida between 2003-2008.....Port St. Lucie hmmm....Wilma, Jeane, Francis...yeah I went through all of them. I have a large knowledge base in hurricanes and I will be more than happy to get into an in depth conversation with you during hurricane season

The odds of this being another 'super outbreak' with 30 F4s and 6 F5s is about 1 in 1 million. Sure there will be a great number of tornadoes tomorrow, but to even put this outbreak in the same breath as the Super Outbreak is just foolish.

That is yet to be seen...Isn't it foolish for you to write it off the day before?? It is very unlikely but it is my position that I still hold

shocking...truly shocking that "xenia74" thinks this will be like the superoutbreak

I don't know what your freaking problem is but just because that is my screen name and I signed in yesterday does not make me clueless...Impress me with some data...If you can that is

That's 30 EF 4 and 6 EF 5...very tough record to reach.

I totally agree..very tough...now I said "close". I also agree very balsy but that is my opinion...I will have a fun day for chasing tomorrow

The number of violent F4/F5 tornadoes in the Super Outbreak (as opposed to the overall number) is probably the most anomalous aspect of it to me. If you consider the major outbreaks of the past 20 years or so and compare the number of violent tornadoes, they don't even come anywhere close to the Super Outbreak.

I have to go on record for saying this....I think this event will come very close to the number of F4/F5 tornadoes...Time will tell

Xenia,

You emphatically agreed with this:

You emphatically disagreed with this:

How are these statements any different in character?

Anyone that claims it is not unlikely that this will be the biggest outbreak on record or even rival 1974 is wishcasting. Even by looking at an accurate synoptic depiction of the super outbreak prior to the event, one would still have to say there is a low probability of a record outbreak.

No your missing the point...I am saying from a statistical standpoint it is unlikely but my opinion is that it will be a very large outbreak... Statistics and my opinion are two different things

There's a lot more to tornado outbreaks than the depth of the low and numbers...lots could still go wrong.

But, since you joined yesterday to warn us and chose the screename you did, you sound unbiased...so I guess we'll just assume it will be worse since there is "nothing" to back up the opinion that this probably wont outperform the superoutbreak.

I am not saying it will or won't out preform the 74 outbreak..I know there is a lot more than just numbers but what I am saying is those numbers are alarming. What I am saying is the set up is there. Do you disagree??

So, who's up for chasing this sucker tomorrow?

I am game for a chase but I am not leaving my area....Middle Tennessee...I am where the action will be anyways..

Synoptically it has some similarities. Tomorrow, two low pressures (surface) will exist. In 1974, there was one main low pressure.

Check the 500mb chart of the morning and evening of April 3, 1974. There are some similarities to tomorrow's 500mb chart. Nobody can know for certain what type of tornado destruction will happen, but no outbreak brought about more destruction than the Super Outbreak. It's unlikely that April 27, 2011 will go down as the worst of the worst tornado outbreaks.

So what are you basing your opinion on??? All the numbers are through the roof..There are two lows but the second low is forecast to be 980mb which is lower than the superstorm in 1974. I understand and respect the 74 outbreak but just looking at it from a numbers stand point there is nothing I have seen to back up your opinion. Are you just saying this cause of how high the bar was set with the 74 outbreak??

This is a reasonable assessment and is very much in concurrence with my thoughts on it for tommorrow. It is highly unlikely yet it is eerily similar. I wouldn't exactly laugh at a 1974 comparison as my first thought when looking at guidance for Day 2 was "1974" but everyone needs to remember that nothing can be compared to 1974 until it's actually occurred. It's very rare..somewhere along the lines of predicting a hurricane season that will rival/surpass 2005. So, it's just not something we can ever expect to happen, but the similarities are there and are difficult for almost any wx aficionado to ignore.

Totally correct..Can't be compared yet but with these numbers this event could be the new standard of comparison....

Join the club...Another front row seat...Getting the camera ready here in Warren County TN

Looks like Dr. Greg Forbes is not afraid to issue a high risk area. He also happens to agree with me on the location...Looks very very bad....

Well the setup is ideal for Wendsday to say the least....I believe this will be a very widespread outbreak much like 1974. I think we will see multiple large tornadoes and tornado families. The bullseye in my honest opinion is northern alabama, northern mississippi, and all of central tennessee with the highest threat. Not only do I think this threat will be extended south but to the north as well.....