nightknights

At .60 but think rain gauge was jammed up for a little while at .16 went out and finagled bowl so figuring may be in the .75 range

Got about 2.5" rain more than expected

Guessing resident doom & gloom Snowman will be on sabbatical for awhile

On 2/11/2024 at 11:57 PM, NEG NAO said:

and what happens if the storm stalls or slows down.......?

Btw

59 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Surprised no one posted the control, it’s 10:1 but is basically the extended euro.

This was a sick run for your region


I'd be more excited if this was Sunday night not Friday night

How sad is it when LA, MS, AR, AL,TN and everyone else in between got more than us.  We have to beg for a couple inches

It showed the squall was tight over me.. it must have dried up & broken up not even a flake

2.36" of rain less than I thought would happen I was thinking could get 3+ 

6 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

can you show me what station did this around here?

Early on and lots of internet announcing massive snowstorm. 

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I was 8 years old in 1996. I vaguely remember that storm but of course I remember 2010. The model swings for that storm were amazing.

 

The models actually had that storm a week out hitting the area then lost it then came back on Christmas Eve.

Plowed that 96 storm stalled out and just never stopped snowing.  I had to blast thru some parking lots with 6FT if snow.  My truck got stuck plenty.  Plowed 14hrs took a 2 hr break and plowed another 24 straight.  That stormed plowed for a week. Picked up some new accounts that week lots of plows broke down or they couldnt get to.  Sold my truck after that yr never to plow again.  Blood Money

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

I know they are all focused on the first event and in this thread also. But another issue is the total QPF forecasted for the next week is concerning for the flooding potential from both events. They haven’t really touched base on that on the tv stations. 
 

Because they are too busy announcing a massive snowstorm for the weekend that was never going to be a massive snow storm.  Massive is 2FT +  not 6-8" 

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

But they weren't even modeled to get alot of snow. It's just frustrating. 

When will you ever learn if you are in the bullseye 6 days out you will not be in the bullseye game time

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

Had HS baseball game snowed out that day but all melted and played following day

Down to 37 

Check that just dropped to 39

Dropping like a rock from 55 to 40in last hour

Dropping fast just dropped another 2 degrees down to 46 since I typed last response

Just went from 55 to 48 in about 15 minutes.  Cant believe this rain, freezing rain/sleet, snow line goes all the way up to New Foundland

Up to 50

8 minutes ago, nightknights said:

Went from 44 to 47

Went up 2 more to 49bim last 5 minutes

Went from 44 to 47

On 1/28/2022 at 10:29 PM, weatherpruf said:

Some forecasters want to reassure the public that there won't be much snow in their area and they will grasp at that; I've seen it over the years. But he could be right. it happens a lot. The snow I'm seeing here is piddly.

I've been holding 44 for last 12 hours

Haha who would figure within a week we'd miss south and east.  Next storm up miss north.  Only need missing west to complete trifecta

11 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Have ya seen the regular Nam? NYC and NJ disappear for years under those totals. 

Exaggerate much it's not The Day After Tomorrow

40 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Below is a map of 500mb. The blue circle shows where the close off is and H5 (the black circle inside the blue circle). 

Soooo quick info about how the upper layers work. I wrote this before in here:

 

For reference anything with h/H in it is designating height in mb. For example, h925 is 925 mb where as h85/7/5 is 850mb/700mb/ and 500mb respectively. 

The governing physics of weather is such that the upper levels (h925 and above) are what govern sensible weather (ie what precip falls, how much, winds, etc). 

For winds, you want to look at h925. The winds here are what can mix down. Normally you take a 10-15% reduction, however, that is not always a hard and fast rule. 

For precip type, a good rule of thumb is to look at h85 and h925. If h85 is below freezing, there's a good chance the precip is frozen, and likely snow (there are exceptions when there are warm pockets above h85). If it is above freezing, it is likely liquid. Now if h85 is above freezing and h925 is close to freezing or below, there is a good chance you are looking at freezing rain. If h85 and h925 are above freezing, most likely it is plain rain. The exception here is if you have a very shallow yet very cold surface layer and/or the ground has been frozen for a good period of time (ie a cold spell for a few days) and sfc temps are just at or very slightly above freezing. Usually lighter precip helps to aid this exception as well. 

For precip rates, you want to look at H7. H7 will show you where the model thinks the best forcing is going to be as well as the available energy for precip. H7 is about frontogenic forcing. 

Lastly, let's look at H5. I won't go into h3/250 as that is beyond the scope of this post. So for H5, this is where you look for phases and energies moving across the continent. So, the 0z GFS slipped east about 75 miles. If you just look at that, well.. Then to you all hope is lost. Yet if you look up at H5, you see that one of the energies phased slightly early, causing a slightly late capture of another energy, ie, phasing late. This allowed the surface low pressure to slip east. However, when you look through the energies at H5, you quickly begin to realize that a less than 3 hour difference in any one of the energies - and consequential phasing - would have changed the outcome (Ala 6z Euro). I'm not going to go too deep into H5 energies as if you have been following along, you would have seen this explained before. If you have not been, follow along from here and look out for what this post has pointed out. To go into h5 energies and orientations would be too long a post and likely confusing as each phase and energy act differently depending on location, speed, strength, etc. It's best to just observe for this moving foreward.

One last thing regarding upper levels. For a coastal storm (or in the Midwest when a storm explodes and runs up from the gulf), you want to be NW of the various closing off of lows at the upper levels. When low pressure systems develop, they develop from SE (at the sfc) to NW (through H5). This diagonal development with regard to height in the atmosphere allows each low pressure center at each level to vent (ie expel air up and outward so that the pressure can fall. Remember, in layman's terms, pressure is essentially a measure of how much air is in any given space at any given time). So as you always want to be NW of the sfc low pressure for frozen precip, you want to be NW of H85 for snow and NW of H7 for the best snowfall rates. When H7 moves directly over or West your area, this is when you can dry slot and when h85 moves over or west of your area, you have h85 temps which shoot above freezing and this changes your snow to other types of precip (remember we talked about upper levels temps earlier). 

On H5/7/85 maps, when a LP closes off a this level, it is represented through a close black contour (ie circle)

These are just some general rules to keep in mind with these types of storms and why the surface depictions on models are really the laziest type of forecasting and produces poor forecasting skills and verification. 

It is also why I am not writing this storm off at all. 

Last note - the Euro with its resolution tends to pick up on these rules the best. This is why it used to be the gold standard. 

The H5 is at like 18,000Ft right

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

That's an all timer in New England... holy shit.

The bullseye will shift.  Think this while sub forum has a real good shot of 12-18