Suncat

Praying Kitty is praying.  Maybe this will work!

But, then again, she's a kitten who believes that dust bunnies taste good...so what does she know!

Friday is primal scream day.  Whose ready? 

I have just done something that will either provide serious mojo for the potential weekend snow event...or jinx it.

I just confirmed a medical appointment in Pittsboro, NC (I will have to travel west from Raleigh, NC) for Monday, Jan 31st and sent in my co-pay in advance. 

For everyone in central NC waking up this morning and checking the model runs from last night...

Feel better, now?

I'm not gonna get sucked in...I'm not gonna get sucked in...I'm not gonna get sucked in...

7 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Excellent post. I think negative tilt is pretty hard to forecast, especially this far out. This solution is factoring it in, but it's one detail of the whole picture that has a drastic effect on the outcome. If that tilt were not part of this particular run, think about how that might change the output of the storm. The low may be much father south, weaker, and allow the cold high confluence to remain longer and stronger. The model could easily change that particular detail in a future run and then we have an icy and colder solution again. Way too much time to go on this one. The ingredients are there, but we likely won't have a good idea till Sun or Monday, if not even go time. I still don't think we have a great picture of this weekend's system.

Agree.  I'm focusing more short range...this weekend and Monday.  Anything further out is still fuzzy and likely to change.  But I will admit that the models this far out are fun to look at!

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Love how everyone’s held off on starting a thread for it. No one wants to get blamed for another lackluster cold rain 

Nobody wants to jinx it! 

I heard thunder this morning near the NC State Fairgrounds and I saw lightening and another clap of thunder a few moments later.  70% chance of snow in seven days!

BTW, is there any record of a major hurricane stalling and spinning itself out of existence?

1 hour ago, lilj4425 said:

Fish are friends not food. Save the fish. Kill the hurricane. Nuke it. 

I'm all in! Nothing like a big old fish fry with radioactive entertainment!

KRDU is currently calling for a high of 39F on Saturday and a high of 42F on Sunday...not a flake is sight.

12 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

That or just having the sleet/rain line stay south of Wake.  Transitioning only to sleet then back to snow. That's fantasy wishing at this point I'm afraid.

This might not be a bad thing.  There's nothing worse than hearing the low hum and explosion of overloaded transformers during an ice storm!

The problem with the FV3 totals is that the model is including sleet, and possibly freezing rain, in its totals.  You're safer to take half of the total number and assume that will be the highest potential amount of snow.  Then, you won't be overly disappointed.

I've put on my running shoes so I can build up some speed before making my leap off the cliff. I want to be sure to be in front of the pack!

If I'm reading this correctly, it appears that everything from Raleigh east is out of the game. Just cold rain.

The real question is whether a rain event will coincide with the cold air dump.  The Southeast usually has a problem getting both rain and cold air to come together at the same time.

Does anyone want to venture what our ice potential this Winter? My guess is that it may be higher than what we've seen in the past five years.

20 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Chance of a white Christmas:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1055489059269812224

Since I just checked out this link, the Christmas snow idea is now officially jinxed.

How does winter 1995-1996 sound as an analog? This past summer has seemed to follow a pattern similar to the summer of 1995. But, again, it could be the early morning and lack of caffeine talking...

Are there any early estimates of rainfall amounts along Michael's path?  Parts of NC and SC are still pretty wet from Hurricane Florence!

1 minute ago, Earthling said:

Isn't that path off of SC right over the gulf stream?

Yes, it looks like the model wants the storm to travel against the gulf stream current.

NHC as of the 2:00 PM advisor continues to have Florence coming into the Onslow Bay region, north of Wilmington, then turning more NW to W once inland.  They have been pretty bullish about a NC coast hit.

RAH continues to mention rain in the forecast with a light dusting or a few flakes of snow. No mention of any accumulation.

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Panic at the disco!!

You gotta love this time period! Do they stay or do they jump?

Well, folks in the Triangle area have been officially snow jinxed.  Coming back from Chapel Hill to Raleigh on US 40, there were signs out warning of slow-moving trucks putting salt down on the roads.  This is a sure sign that we will likely have <1.0" of snow accumulation.