Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong. Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out. I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now
Most of the models show it getting pretty close to shore, too, which isn't going to help. Norfolk area is used to tropical storms and the occasional weakened Cat 1, and it's also predominantly military families. Based on my experience living there for 25 years or so, if people don't think they need to evacuate then many/most aren't going to, and the bridges and tunnels in the area make evacuation really problematic. A big storm coming right up to them and then turning would either be a PR problem (due to evacuation that didn't need to happen) or an infrastructure capacity problem (if people aren't told to evacuate because of the curve and then it never curves). If this were to hit as a Cat 2-3, I don't think they'd see it coming.
I would assume this to be less of a problem if it hits more south of that area (since they've dealt with stronger storms) or north of that area (since they get so few hits they would take it more seriously).
Hurricane Maria
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
Most of the models show it getting pretty close to shore, too, which isn't going to help. Norfolk area is used to tropical storms and the occasional weakened Cat 1, and it's also predominantly military families. Based on my experience living there for 25 years or so, if people don't think they need to evacuate then many/most aren't going to, and the bridges and tunnels in the area make evacuation really problematic. A big storm coming right up to them and then turning would either be a PR problem (due to evacuation that didn't need to happen) or an infrastructure capacity problem (if people aren't told to evacuate because of the curve and then it never curves). If this were to hit as a Cat 2-3, I don't think they'd see it coming.
I would assume this to be less of a problem if it hits more south of that area (since they've dealt with stronger storms) or north of that area (since they get so few hits they would take it more seriously).