Barman49

Finally started in Southern Bergen. 28 degrees.

Sent from my IN2017 using Tapatalk

Anyone have an idea why the LP on the HRRR doesn't really move from 02z to 07z??  Just sits near Cape May.

For 5 days it had the low 100 miles south of all other guidance and it's northern precip field was a joke. It's been a train wreck with this storm until it finally caved earlier today. 

Look at its run 24 hours ago and 00z tonight. Night and day. Plus for 5 days it got snow barely past NYC metro. 

The GFS has slowly come around to an extent on the idea 02-07Z near NYC is dicey on ptype.   This run just about has rain at JFK for a brief period 

That’s true if that’s your point. 

You're kidding right? It's been atrocious. 24 hours ago it was giving me 3 inches. It caved to other guidance today and is now on planet earth with the rest of the models. Latest output is now 19 for me. 

Say what you will about it,right or wrong, but the GFS has been about as consistent as it can get with this.

8 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Do you have the 18z and this one in comparison?

NAM is better even with that sleet mixed in.  No dry slot & SE.

Both NAM's have the low going east then for whatever reason jump back west.  Not sure if this is feedback or something else.  But that seems to be affecting the outcomes with precip.

QPF is low for the entire area.  I thought it would've been a little higher.

Does that jump west again at 34.  Otherwise it looks SE and better until then.

UK

Sent from my IN2017 using Tapatalk

It probably hugs up until ACY and then goes east, similar to its last few runs I would think. 

It likely goes north or nne from the Delmarva coastline to Cape May or AC before heading due east to it's position in the 2nd frame.  There's no way of knowing how tucked it really is into the NJ coastline until we ger the better images.  I dropped a link in here earlier.  Use it around 12:20am.  Gn.   

I would think it would be pretty warm for coast. Its a hugger it looks like. 

They aren't really all that NW. GFS is a somewhat suppressed outlier.

I wonder if the NAM & RGEM are doing a last minute jump and tomorrow they bounce back.  They really are NW and you'd think they would be more SE with the HP.  We'll see tomorrow if it's an over correction or not.  At least we got snow.

1 minute ago, SI Mailman said:

It's snow all around that one little blob that goes away on the next frame.  Probably not really sleet.

I think both the NAM & 3K are having some kind of issues.  The output doesn't make sense on the NAM and the 3k moves west around hour 50.  I wouldn't put much stock into it with either at this range.  If they do this tomorrow it would be more of an issue.