Tatamy
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Everything posted by Tatamy
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Great link to the Lake Effect snow up in Buffalo. This is a link to the traffic cams along I-190 in the city. You can see some areas that are experiencing whiteouts along the highway while other areas are up to one mile with the band in the distance. https://www.thruway.ny.gov/travelers/map/text/twytextcameras.cgi?region=BUI190
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This event is showing up in a lot of the 12z runs as Walt has noted. The area most likely to be impacted looks to be western and NW NJ and adjacent PA. This looks to be tied to the passage of a Vorticity max through those areas tomorrow evening.
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There are a lot of accounts from people who have experienced just that up there. Plenty of videos on social media showing this as well (Chaser videos specifically).
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Looks like a sunny morning in progress. According to the morning disco from Buffalo NWS with the approach of a shortwave this evening the flow will back around to the SW. This will initiate the setup of the band that will impact Buffalo. The snow is expected to begin around 8 PM there.
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Temps along Fire Island and on the east end have already jumped into the mid to upper 50s this morning.
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Had a quick burst of snow which left a coating. Has now changed back to rain. 33/31
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Light rain mixed with ice pellets here. 40/27
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18z GFS for Black Friday. It will be very interesting to see how this pattern evolves.
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Very true on the elevation factor. MPO in the Poconos at 2000 ft is forecast to get 1-3" along with 0.1 - 0.3" of ice accum.
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Mt. Holly issues a WWA for the Poconos and Sussex Cty in NJ. This will be a prototypical north of Blue Mountain (PA) north and west of I80/I287 (NJ) early season event.
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Freezing Rain potential with the Tuesday / Wednesday event off the 0z NAM
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Erie - Lake effect.
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It might look like something like this from the 12z NAM:
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Very little support from the GEFS on this possible event so far.
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How does the power grid do out there with run of the mill wind gusts?
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Both the 0Z GFS and the 0Z ECMWF are calling for widespread damaging wind gusts up to 50 MPH across the area (includes many inland areas and coastal areas) with the passage of Nicole and the phasing with the Polar jet. Timing on this would be Friday night and Saturday morning for worst impacts. Places along the coast could see gusts closer to 60 mph with the Euro solution.
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There was one moderate snowstorm in the region on 2/12/75.
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OKX totals
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Daily total here up to 2.90”
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Just picked up another 0.50” in the past 15 minutes so I am up to 2.52”
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2.02” on the day.
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Crazy banding with this event.
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Been pouring here during the past couple of hours. Now at 1.04” for the day.
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Models have been mostly focused on two bands of heavier precip with this event. One over eastern PA and the other over at least parts of LI and CT. I am up to 0.37 on the day with the former. 12z Euro looks good for LI and CT with the later.
