TimChgo9

7 miles south of ORD, now down to 38,  and rain. Looks like the changeover may be approaching 

still 40 degrees here with light rain.  

4 minutes ago, boiler1111 said:

Starting to see some ice pellets mixing in just south of I-88 in Western DuPage Co.  temp down to 35.

2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

Updated LOT snowfall forecast, all but eliminated the 12"+ from northeast IL. Marginal move, though, 8-12" still a force to be reckoned with

 

Looks like they now have the 8"-12" covering my area... barely, but we seem to be in it. 

light winds here, still 39 degrees.  Weather Bug says winds are NNE at about 8 gusting up to 14 

40 degrees here.  I don't think temps are supposed to start falling until later.  Not very windy at the moment NNE at about 11 or so. 

rain here. some ragged radar returns for now, but it is starting to fill in.  Rain is light to moderate at the moment.  

It is weather like this that makes me glad I work from home. All the same, not totally prepared for this either.  Got salt, and shovels, but this is going to be "heart attack snow" from the looks of it, so clearing driveways is going to be decidedly un-fun.  

Looks like above normal temps through out the latest GFS run.  Looks pretty rainy as well.  Wondering when the fall temps will start to kick in. 

I was hoping for a better severe season this year.  Just doesn't look like it.  GFS shows rain on a few occasions on the latest run, but not much in the way of storms. 

Maybe winter will be better...... 

I was16! Im old

I was 26.... I am even older....

I remember that summer well.  I could use another one like it.  Of course, we all remember what the summer of 1993 was like as well...  '92 was cold, and '93 was the flood.....

I honestly never thought I would see a death toll from tornadic activity that high again in our day and age. But with so many intense tornadoes churning into densely populated areas it is perhaps almost inevitable even when warnings are timely, heard, and responded to by the general public. Community shelters for mobile home parks and public housing projects could help. I think SPC and NWS forecasters did a terrific job along with local media. I remember in late winter you thought this was going to be a very rough season for various scientific reasons, and I shudder to think we are just now entering May.

I never thought I would ever see a death toll that high either., but then, we were dealing with a strong system, and the consensus was that strong tornadoes were going to come out of it. I just wish they would have torn up some farm fields instead..... I was looking at the Birmingham, AL NWS office website, and they have a map of their CWA, and they had as many as 11 confirmed tornadoes in their CWA alone. I remember the speculations that it would be a rough severe season, makes me wonder if I want the sever potential to shift to this region..

Looks like we are in a quiet pattern for now

Time makes people forget. Plus there's a little truth in the lake myth, but it gets exaggerated to the point where people think it will prevent something big every time.

Cook county had 24 minutes of lead time on 4/21/67, outstanding for that era especially given that the tornado hadn't previously touched down yet in another county. Oak Lawn had about 25,000 people and the tornado damage path was only a couple hundred yards wide at most, but we got unlucky with a lot of people caught in traffic. I've read the damage survey and it seems like the only F4 damage occurred in Oak Lawn...so if that severe damage would've been more widespread or farther northeast, it probably would've been worse.

There's been some frightening modeled scenarios about what would happen if a violent tornado tracked through Chicago. The area with rather high population density is much bigger though as you said.

In 1967, the population density was still mainly concentrated in Cook County... Much of DuPage, esp. western Du Page, like Naperville, Wheaton, and other towns were still considered "the sticks" back then, because large parts of DuPage were farmland. Same for Lake Co IL as well. Will Co. outside of Joliet was farm country as well. 44 years later, and DuPage has a large population as do all of the other counties around Chicago. I remember going to visit family friends who moved to Lisle in the mid 70's we used to drive I-5 (now I-88) out there, and all I remember seeing was farms, and open land. The area started to really grow in the late 70's through the 80's.

If an EF-4 touched down at say, I-55 and Route 53, and tracked NE even for 10 miles, the damage, and loss of life would be horrendous. If it tracked farther say 15-20 miles, it would be grinding through a very densely populated area not only full of people, but industries as well... I don't even want to think about it.

Long post so I'm not quoting the whole thing, but just wait. A mass casualty tornado is inevitable. It's been 20 years since Plainfield and that was only one violent tornado. Given the urban sprawl around there, that would be bad enough, but imagine 2 or 3 violent tornadoes in one day like 1967. It's hard to just pick one metro area in the US and say "this is where the next mega tornado disaster is likely to be" but your area is probably as likely as anybody. At least you have more basements than Alabama, but there's also more people.

You are right, a mass casualty tornado IS inevitable. In all my years in Emergency Services (including volunteer time, comes to over 15) every year I remember there being a tornado drill. Be it a radio drill, a response drill, or a full dress rehearsal. complete with simulated casualties, collapsed buildings and wrecked cars , I participated at some level every year I was a member of an emergency agency.

It's not a question of preparedness, local Fire, EMS and Police are trained, and ready to handle it if it happens. I sat in on planning committees, participated in drills. I am fully aware it can happen here.

The problem is, many Chicagoans don't believe it. And I do mean it, they don't believe it can happen.

I shudder to think what would happen if two or three Tuscaloosa type tornadoes hit the area... and they could touch down anywhere from the WI/IL line to the IL/IN line, and it would stand a good chance of hitting a large urban/suburban concentration.

We may have more basements, but I think we learned from the Alabama tornadoes that perhaps a basement might be of dubious value in some situations...

I tell you what a big problem is...many people don't think it could happen to them. I don't know how many times I've heard people say "ah, ain't nothing going to happen here". It's maddening to hear this thought process. I bet some of these people didn't think there was a real chance of anything happening to them either so they just shrugged it off.

Of course I don't know that for sure but just based on so many people I know thinking like this, I don't see why it wouldn't be prevalent elsewhere.

That is definitely the problem we have up around here. It's prevalent around here, that is for sure.

There is an old saying that I have heard many times: "Familiarity breeds contempt". In other words, people who are used to a certain thing happening, tend to disregard any dangers that that event, or activity may hold. I live along railroad tracks, its' a busy mainline hosting easily 100+ trains a day. It's part of the normal routine to hear trains all day long, so much so, that after living here for 4 years, I tune them out. What does that have to do with weather? It has to do with this: The people in my neighborhood, me included, tend to "tune out" the railroad, to the point where it is almost ignored, and that leads to a few things: People playing "beat the train" at the crossing, and kids playing along the tracks, walking too close to the tracks, etc.etc..... We react that way because we are "used to it"... the trains are part of the environment, we think we instinctively know when they are coming, and what not... most of us have figured out the daily METRA schedule by just watching the trains go past..... The problem is, our complacency has led us to think less of the dangers because we "know" the railroad....

Same goes for weather on some levels... at least around here.

I think that the people in the Plains, Southern Plains, and in a few parts of the Southeast have a better appreciation for tornadoes than we do up here, in and around the Chicago area specifically. We haven't had a tornado affect the Chicago metro area since the Oak Lawn tornado of, I believe, 1967. Plainfield doesn't really count, because Plainfield is 35 miles away, and "out in the sticks" as that area was referred to back at that time.

Here in Chicago, there are several myths that people rely on, as to why there won't be any tornadoes....

1. Lake Michigan protects us, because of the "lake breeze"

2. The "Urban Heat Island" effect, prevents the formation of tornadoes.

3. Tall buildings prevent tornadoes.

4. We are "too far north" to be affected by tornadoes, and not really part of "Tornado Alley".

Since many Chicago area residents believe one or more of these myths, we get to the "Familiarity breeds contempt" way of thinking. In other words, we don't really worry about severe weather, because we are "protected" according to the above myths. We are also used to getting severe storms, with no tornadoes... Sure, watches are issued, and warnings are broadcast, but in my life time, there hasn't been a tornado touch down east of Route 53. And there is another factor. When it comes to weather, I have discovered, that, so it seems around here, no one takes weather dangers seriously, and there is a contempt, in some ways for weather forecasting. The Blizzard of Feb 1-2 is a perfect example of this.

We knew, anywhere from 120 to 72 hours out, that the possibility existed for a powerful, if not paralyzing snow storm. NWS, the local TV and radio were talking about the storm. By 36 hours out, uncertanty had galvanized into certainty that we were indeed going to get heavy snow. Yet, there were many people that I ran across who didn't believe for a moment that we would get the storm.

"The storm is going to miss"

"They (forecasters) never get it right, it will miss"

"Wrong time of year for a blizzard"

"I doubt we will get it, the weather man is right only half the time anyway"

And the remarks went on and on. There were those of us who prepared, and others who didn't. By the morning after the storm, there were plenty of people who were surprised at the amount of snow that fell, and the severity of the storm. As a 10+ year veteran of Public Safety (Firefighter, 9-1-1 Operator) when it comes to potential weather, or other natural emergencies, a few people will make every preparation for it, some will make a few preparations, but many others will make little, or no preparation, relying on myth, speculation, and in some cases ignorance to alleviate the dangerous situation. On one hand, when we got the blizzard, some people who were highly critical of forecasting began to think a little different, along the lines of "When the weatherman says it's could be dangerous, perhaps we should pay attention". Fast forward to a couple of weeks ago, when that severe outbreak forecast for the area didn't happen. At least not around here. Attitudes went right back to "They can't forecast a thing".... and right back to the complacency.

So, people play down, disregard, or flat out ignore the forecast for dangerous weather, because after years of never seeing a tornado, they are content to believe that it will never happen, and disregard any potential as "hype" In other words, their "familiarity" with the weather, as they know it, has bred contempt for it, and therefore they tend to ignore anything that doesn't fit what they think they "know". After the missed severe weather event, and after conversations with family, friends, Facebook friends, and even, complete strangers, the explanations (despite the fact that NWS LOT had an excellent explanation on their site for the lack of severe weather that day) I was hearing had little to do with science, and more to do with the reinforcing of the "myth" about the lake, or the urban heat island, etc etc. etc.

So, regardless of the advances in warning times, forecast technologies, and etc.... The obstacle that has to be overcome is, well, to be blunt, stupidity. One last example. A couple of summers ago, my daughter had been invited to a birthday party. It was a fine summer day. The SPC had outlooked us for a Slight Risk. Anyway, I went to drop my daughter off, and arrived at the house to find mom and dad setting up the party outside, while weather conditions were deteriorating. It was obvious it was going to storm (NWS had issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch about two hours earlier). A line of storms was building on radar, I had checked before leaving the house. The mom was wondering if she should bring out more balloons. I said "Looks like a storm".. to which she replied, with a dismissive wave of her hand "This will blow over it's nothing." Meanwhile, my cellphone is chirping with storm warnings, and inside the house, the cable provider is issuing severe storm warnings over the programming. Other parents had shown up, and the mom hositng the party, still dismissed the warnings and all, and still, she went on, setting up the party. Then the storm broke, and her carefully laid out tables, with paper tablecloths, paper plates, and decorations wound up all over the yard, the neighbor's yard, and out into the driveway. Twenty minutes and 15 frightened girls later, the mom decided that having the party in the house was a good idea. Yeah, the storm, as severe storms go, was minor. Some gusts, a power outage, etc... but it points up the fact, that people, especially around here, in my opinion, tend to not listen to weather warnings of any kind.

I have to agree with the above post, it is maddening to hear the "Noting is going to happen" or, even more so. "The forecasters are almost always wrong." But, when you boil it all down, there are just people that cannot be reached. Not because there is no way to communicate with them, but because they aren't paying attention, or won't pay attention, don't take it seriously, or just don't care. I can tell you, when the blizzard trapped all of those people on Lake Shore Drive for 10 or 12 hours, you can bet a couple of them made the promise to themselves to listen, and heed next time they say there is going to be big snow storm, or any other bad weather for that matter.

A friend and co-worker lives in Red Bank near Chattanooga, and she finally got power back after being without since the Wednesday , we were relieved to hear she was okay (I do Level II Tech Support from home, my co-workers all live in different cities, but we work for the same company) She relayed to me how frightening it was during the height of the storms. There is devastation all around her, fortunately she only suffered the power outage, and some minor damage... not too far from her, though, people lost everything.

Through my experience though, as maddening as it is, I came to accept that no matter what, some people are just going to be that way, and there is nothing you can do about it. You can warn them until you are blue in the face, and they will pay no heed. Machismo? Stupidity? Indifference? Who knows?

What an unbelievable day.

One of my co-workers lives in the Chattanooga area... she was not on-line to work tonight, so I can only assume it was due to the storms. The Chattanooga area was clobbered with storm after storm tonight, I was watching the radar for that area until it went off line....

Unbelievable.

Forecast for us is "thunderstorms likely" for Monday and Tuesday, 70% chance both days, but the SPC doesn't have risk area near us, so I am assuming it's just going to be more heavy rain,. We cloud over on Sunday, and we look to stay that way for at least 3 days, going into Wednesday. The low looks to go right over N IL, or slightly south. It looks like some high pressure up in Canada is keeping this thing from moving farther north and putting us in the "cloudy/rainy" cycle through at least Wednesday. At least the temps will be a bit more pleasant, in the lower 60's.

All the same, this weather is getting annoying, so far it's been 3-4 or more days of clouds and rain, a day or so of sun, and then back to the same thing.